Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4313 Location: Graceland
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
I'm with VM and others--as long as fuel is available at any price, things are unlikely to get ugly.
It's when it's not available that people are going to start acting crazy.
They're doing $10 a gallon fuel in Britain and the world still turns (I think it does, anyway).
We haven't even started seriously down the whole carpooling thing yet. That's next, and that will provide a lot of relief to some people with long commutes.
Maybe $25 a gallon would start to create some friction.
I think the frog in the boiling water analogy is appropriate here--people will adjust to higher prices without freaking out so long as it is reasonably gradual and fuel is available for SOME price.
The 1970s only got ugly because of price control induced shortages.
To date, I don't think anyone could have predicted how little social unrest would be caused by $4.00 a gallon gas and nearly $5.00 a gallon diesel. _________________
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3424 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 5:02 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Price has already caused panic and chaos. In the US, it's mostly found on an individual basis, as households deal with empty checkbooks.
Collective panic and chaos will emerge here and there as price continues to rise, i.e. trucker's strikes, food riots, etc.
Economic activities that require high energy input but deliver little or no productive value will be under great pressure. Many of these activities will cease.
Those on this board that continue to seek the magic number that will "trigger the collapse" really need to stop looking.
It doesn't work that way.
Some people and regions and economic subsets will prosper through this change.
Many others will suffer.
It's really not hard to see where the prosperity will come from. Move yourself into those economies, and the price of gas won't matter . . . much.
Once you are well situated, go about your business.
I suppose a comet might land on your head anyway, but there's really no point in planning for that, is there? _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
BigTex wrote:
We haven't even started seriously down the whole carpooling thing yet. That's next, and that will provide a lot of relief to some people with long commutes.
Maybe $25 a gallon would start to create some friction.
This is an important point and something I've noticed as well. We're still not carpooling. When suburbanites are finally compelled to *gasp* get into an SUV and commute with, say, 3 other people instead of riding alone they are sharing the cost. So if you have four people sharing that ride and they are all contributing to the cost of the trip equally, at current prices their share is only $1 a gallon. If many individuals are still able to afford $4 a gallon driving by themselves now (with lots of complaining) then how high would the price have to go before it becomes unaffordable even when shared among a group of people? Suddenly the $25 a gallon figure doesn't seem so silly...
Of course that's an overly simplistic analysis, because it ignores other factors like the very real possibility of shortages, what happens to people who can't share the cost of gas by carpooling (like truckers), and, of course, what kinds of stupid government policies we will see during all of this which are almost certain to make the problem worse. _________________ In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4381 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 6:50 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Quote:
Of course that's an overly simplistic analysis, because it ignores other factors like the very real possibility of shortages, what happens to people who can't share the cost of gas by carpooling (like truckers), and, of course, what kinds of stupid government policies we will see during all of this which are almost certain to make the problem worse.
Like maybe a gas guzzler tax?
Lowering the National speed limit?
Tax incentives for high mileage vehicles?
I know, how about no government policies. Let the free market prevail............
Joined: Aug 19, 2004 Posts: 1719 Location: Republic of Texas
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:23 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
You guys far underestimate people's ability to cope with scarcity.
Actual physical shortages caused by government intervention would produce much protest and anger, but no significant political violence.
Like BigTex said, as with the boiling frog, people will adapt. We are seeing it already. Parking SUV's, carpooling, 4-day workweeks, etc. There is a huge amount of slack in our transportation needs and transportation system that has yet to be taken up. _________________ Conform . Consume . Obey .
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6483 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:50 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
BigTex wrote:
I'm with VM and others--as long as fuel is available at any price, things are unlikely to get ugly.
It's when it's not available that people are going to start acting crazy.
They're doing $10 a gallon fuel in Britain and the world still turns (I think it does, anyway).
We haven't even started seriously down the whole carpooling thing yet. That's next, and that will provide a lot of relief to some people with long commutes.
Maybe $25 a gallon would start to create some friction.
I think the frog in the boiling water analogy is appropriate here--people will adjust to higher prices without freaking out so long as it is reasonably gradual and fuel is available for SOME price.
The 1970s only got ugly because of price control induced shortages.
To date, I don't think anyone could have predicted how little social unrest would be caused by $4.00 a gallon gas and nearly $5.00 a gallon diesel.
In terms of the matter under discussion, I don't think it's reasonable to compare any European country with North America. Distances in Europe are very much compressed compared with here, and communities are organized around public transport, the bicycle, and walking. In Europe most driving is optional, not necessary to life as it is here (as a result of the decisions and investments we've made as a society). I say that from the perspective of someone who has lived there AND here.
There are probably a few counties in Texas that compare favorably in size to England. And everything in them is all spread out.
Some of you seem out-of-touch with the American masses. There is tremendous friction right now, at $4/gallon, for many poorer people, as MD noted. This friction has the potential to spread rapidly up the economic chain. A rising unemployment rate, driven by higher gas prices, could do that viciously. Even in the lower-middle and middle-middle classes, many families are, right now, just a few paychecks away from starvation. And has been noted, many people are "getting by" by getting deeper into debt. Borrowed money is borrowed time, my friends.
America is organized about 95% around the private automobile. Drive around with eyes wide open and you will see that for yourself. When the millions of Sheetz QuickMarts and Meineke Mufflers and Days Inns and Pizza Theaters go down, so will this country. There is no defense. As Kunstler has observed, we've made our choices and our investments and we will have to live and die with them.
Getting to work by carpooling is all well and fine, but what if people have no job to go to?
Remember, too, that $25 gasoline would not happen in isolation from other price impacts. It is a huge error to overlook this. If gasoline costs $25/gal, milk will cost $30/gal, etc.
And---how are we going to maintain those roads, with tumbling tax revenues and $200 oil? How will we fix the cracks and beat back the overgrowing branches? (This question has been examined in other threads.) _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:00 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
vision-master wrote:
Quote:
Of course that's an overly simplistic analysis, because it ignores other factors like the very real possibility of shortages, what happens to people who can't share the cost of gas by carpooling (like truckers), and, of course, what kinds of stupid government policies we will see during all of this which are almost certain to make the problem worse.
Like maybe a gas guzzler tax?
Lowering the National speed limit?
Tax incentives for high mileage vehicles?
I know, how about no government policies. Let the free market prevail............
2 Steps to cut consumption by significant percentage:
Any vehicle on the road must be paid for.
Only citizens are allowed to drive. _________________ A man should never wear a hat that has more character than he does.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:09 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
vision-master wrote:
Quote:
Of course that's an overly simplistic analysis, because it ignores other factors like the very real possibility of shortages, what happens to people who can't share the cost of gas by carpooling (like truckers), and, of course, what kinds of stupid government policies we will see during all of this which are almost certain to make the problem worse.
Like maybe a gas guzzler tax?
Lowering the National speed limit?
Tax incentives for high mileage vehicles?
I know, how about no government policies. Let the free market prevail............
Nah. More along the lines of sueing OPEC, preventing commodities traders from buying oil overseas, windfall profits taxes, using a third of our corn crop to replace 3% of our gasoline consumption, subsidizing sure losers like hydrogen, etc....
I don't doubt that there is plenty of good that can be done on the part of government regulation. But when I look at the history of government energy policy and the things we're doing right now, I can't help but feel pessimistic. _________________ In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Joined: Nov 16, 2007 Posts: 295 Location: Rural Western Idaho
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Heineken wrote:
As important as the price itself is the rate of change. A sudden increase (over the course of, say, a few days or weeks) to $5 or $6 could well spawn panic and chaos.
I think you have hit the nail on the head, here. If we had gone from $1.89 to $4.99 overnight for diesel, for example, the freak-out would have been immediate.
As it is, however, people and the economy have more or less continued to acclimate/adapt, with increasing but gradual levels of discomfort. Obviously, that can only go on for a very finite period of time, though.
Lumpy _________________ Dean Karnazes : "Run when you can, walk when you have to, crawl if you must; just never give up." --- Jackie Joyner-Kersee: "It is better to look forward & prepare, than to look back & regret."
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 750 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
What I don't understand is why the federal government isn't pressuring employers to raise wages like they did in the '70's. Sure, prices went to the moon back then, but so did wages. Remember when getting the "COL" was virtually a God-given right?
I really wish Americans would get back on the union bandwagon and start staging some crippling strikes....starting with the lower-level service workers. Imagine if every grocery store clerk in the USA went on strike for a month, or two?
Now, that's the kind of thing I wanna see go down in this country. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 750 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:25 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Lumpy wrote:
Heineken wrote:
As important as the price itself is the rate of change. A sudden increase (over the course of, say, a few days or weeks) to $5 or $6 could well spawn panic and chaos.
I think you have hit the nail on the head, here. If we had gone from $1.89 to $4.99 overnight for diesel, for example, the freak-out would have been immediate.
As it is, however, people and the economy have more or less continued to acclimate/adapt, with increasing but gradual levels of discomfort. Obviously, that can only go on for a very finite period of time, though.
Lumpy
Yeah, that's why I'd give anything to see a "hat trick" of Cat 5s in the Gulf this summer, as well as massive mayhem in the Middle East, which would surely cause a doubling of fuel prices, not to mention severe, weeks-long shortages. This death by a 1000 cuts is taking way too long for me...I wanna see this go down fast...LOL.
America needs a really swift, vicious kick in the butt, and we need it soon. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
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