Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:26 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Byron100 wrote:
What I don't understand is why the federal government isn't pressuring employers to raise wages like they did in the '70's. Sure, prices went to the moon back then, but so did wages.
In terms of gasoline (and oil) prices it would be a wash. If people had more money to afford gasoline, consumption would increase. Without a corresponding increase in the supply, the price of gasoline would continue creeping up again until it reached a level that caused pain and curbed people's driving habit's again.
Quote:
I really wish Americans would get back on the union bandwagon and start staging some crippling strikes....starting with the lower-level service workers. Imagine if every grocery store clerk in the USA went on strike for a month, or two?
This makes me think of the unions being scape goated for the hyper inflation in Germany for daring to demand a wage that kept up with the cost of living... _________________ In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 750 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:34 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
The ironic thing about all of this is that having a tremendous number of people not working, either unemployed or on never-ending strikes, is actually the best way to deal with declining supplies of energy. The less people working, the less energy consumed, plain and simple.
Putting America on "idle" would do more to reduce energy use than any "solution" that's ever been put forth on this board. You can take that to the bank. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6468 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Byron100 wrote:
Lumpy wrote:
Heineken wrote:
As important as the price itself is the rate of change. A sudden increase (over the course of, say, a few days or weeks) to $5 or $6 could well spawn panic and chaos.
I think you have hit the nail on the head, here. If we had gone from $1.89 to $4.99 overnight for diesel, for example, the freak-out would have been immediate.
As it is, however, people and the economy have more or less continued to acclimate/adapt, with increasing but gradual levels of discomfort. Obviously, that can only go on for a very finite period of time, though.
Lumpy
Yeah, that's why I'd give anything to see a "hat trick" of Cat 5s in the Gulf this summer, as well as massive mayhem in the Middle East, which would surely cause a doubling of fuel prices, not to mention severe, weeks-long shortages. This death by a 1000 cuts is taking way too long for me...I wanna see this go down fast...LOL.
America needs a really swift, vicious kick in the butt, and we need it soon.
I used to feel that way, but I don't any more, Byron.
I'm scared. For me, my family, my dog.
I worry a lot about my dog! Not being able to feed her properly, or give her her heartworm/whipworm medicine. She is a sweet little girl; I love her so.
And I'm scared for good guys like you. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 750 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Yeah, I'm scared too. But what to do about it? Good house in a good neighborhood, check. Low debt load, check. Short-term stockpile of food and other necessities, check. Learning to live without a 9-5 job, check. Living without pets, check. Learning to live without the use of a car - currently in progress. Turning my wooded suburban lot into an agricultural powerhouse, in my dreams...LOL. Learning to live without asthma meds, prognosis not good. Hopefully I'll be able to just stick with Albuterol...at $7 every six weeks, I do think I'll able to afford that for quite some time yet...hehe.
But yeah, I can't do everything to get ready for the post-peak era, nobody can. But gosh, I don't know what's going to kill me first, the waiting or the actual calamity of what's to come.
But one big reason I'm so impatient for things to "hurry up and get going" is that it'll at least start us on the path to living without fossil fuels and to jettison total non-life sustaining economic sectors which *might* keep things glued together for the next couple of decades...i.e., my 40's and 50's.
I'm more than ready for the '70's...I'm living them now. I'm bracing myself to live the '30's, and I don't think I'm too far from there already. That I can handle. Going back to the Dark Ages, I cannot. I'll be worm food if that happens...there's just no denying that. But I just don't think that's on the horizon, not yet. Rome didn't fall in a day, and neither will we....I hope! _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6468 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Byron100 wrote:
Yeah, I'm scared too. But what to do about it? Good house in a good neighborhood, check. Low debt load, check. Short-term stockpile of food and other necessities, check. Learning to live without a 9-5 job, check. Living without pets, check. Learning to live without the use of a car - currently in progress. Turning my wooded suburban lot into an agricultural powerhouse, in my dreams...LOL. Learning to live without asthma meds, prognosis not good. Hopefully I'll be able to just stick with Albuterol...at $7 every six weeks, I do think I'll able to afford that for quite some time yet...hehe.
But yeah, I can't do everything to get ready for the post-peak era, nobody can. But gosh, I don't know what's going to kill me first, the waiting or the actual calamity of what's to come.
But one big reason I'm so impatient for things to "hurry up and get going" is that it'll at least start us on the path to living without fossil fuels and to jettison total non-life sustaining economic sectors which *might* keep things glued together for the next couple of decades...i.e., my 40's and 50's.
I'm more than ready for the '70's...I'm living them now. I'm bracing myself to live the '30's, and I don't think I'm too far from there already. That I can handle. Going back to the Dark Ages, I cannot. I'll be worm food if that happens...there's just no denying that. But I just don't think that's on the horizon, not yet. Rome didn't fall in a day, and neither will we....I hope!
Anyway, I see little to root for, Byron. The excitement value of these events is quickly overwhelmed by the personal pain. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5886 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 12:42 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Byron100 wrote:
one big reason I'm so impatient for things to "hurry up and get going" is that it'll at least start us on the path to living without fossil fuels
Its more likely we are on the path to living with dirtier fossil fuels....as we use up oil we are on the path to go to more exploitation of coal and oil shale and tar sands and methane hydrates.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 1:01 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Big Tex, I usually agree with your analysis, but I can't on this one.
UK is NOT the U.S..
Look at it this way - gas at 12 bucks a gallon is an inconvenience if all you're concerned about is Manhattan.
The U.S. is car based.
Also, did you say 25 bucks a gallon?
Seriously Tex, you need to keep thinking about this.
At 10 bucks a gallon, the average car is a 150-200 dollar fill up.
For anybody making 10 bucks or less an hour, that's 1/2 their paycheck. How many Americans are making 10 or less an hour?
20%?
That means they can't drive.
If you price 20% out of the market, there will be ramifications, and it won't simply be carpooling. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4298 Location: Graceland
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 1:07 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Cashmere wrote:
Big Tex, I usually agree with your analysis, but I can't on this one.
UK is NOT the U.S..
Look at it this way - gas at 12 bucks a gallon is an inconvenience if all you're concerned about is Manhattan.
The U.S. is car based.
Also, did you say 25 bucks a gallon?
Seriously Tex, you need to keep thinking about this.
At 10 bucks a gallon, the average car is a 150-200 dollar fill up.
For anybody making 10 bucks or less an hour, that's 1/2 their paycheck. How many Americans are making 10 or less an hour?
20%?
That means they can't drive.
If you price 20% out of the market, there will be ramifications, and it won't simply be carpooling.
Yep. You're right.
But for some, carpooling would be one way of coping with high prices.
When I look around during rush hour and every car has four people in it rather than one and people still can't get to work economically, then we will be in trouble.
We will probably get there, but I think that carpooling will be an intermediate mitigation effort that will probably relieve some of the gas price tension that would otherwise translate into social unrest.
Also, the inflation story will have a lot to say about the price at which things get ugly.
If the price of everything is going up rapidly, including wages, then a certain price point of gas might not be as disruptive as we would think.
I agree with you though that people are going to get pissed at a certain point and start acting crazy. _________________
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 750 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 1:39 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Heineken wrote:
Anyway, I see little to root for, Byron. The excitement value of these events is quickly overwhelmed by the personal pain.
While I'm certainly not rooting for the Great Calamity to start tomorrow, I am (have been for ages) rooting for the end of the so-called modern era, for it's not worked out well for me. Sure, I enjoy the very high standard of living that cheap energy has given us, but I've always felt out of sync with this era. Doing the same job, every day, for years, that hasn't worked for me. "Playing the game" in order to get ahead in a "career"...what a load of crock. Every attempt I've made to try and achieve "success" has been met with bad karma and voo doo of almost every sort. What is it with people that put the almighty dollar as well as "status" over everything else in life? And what is it about swearing loyalty with your very soul for the people "you work for"? Jesus, Hail Mary, I didn't get born into this era to deal with that level of insanity.
Want some other examples of why this era doesn't "fit" me? I down an "energy drink". Guess what happens? I'm a-snoozin' in 45 minutes. Yep. Flat asleep in the middle of the day from something that's supposed to be liquid speed. I try pills for depression. Result? A mental black hole. Nasty. The marketing I'm exposed to on a daily basis makes no sense to me. It's all so...banal, to put it lightly. And yes, it does feel lonely sometimes, being such a "forward thinker" in the world of the here and now, having to hear people complain about high energy prices for all the wrong reasons - when they just don't get the idea that we're using up a *finite* supply.
And yes, I do believe going into "crisis" now, while we're at the very *top* of the peak is far more preferable than ramming everything we can get our hands on into our energy-guzzling economy, and then crashing ourselves into total Doomland later on down the line. There is so much slack that we can take out of our lives, if we're given hard enough of a bitch-slap, that is. There's something to be said about the sharp clarity of focus of a major crisis-level event than a gradual, never-ending decline that eats away at the fabric of society a little bit at a time.
And it'll be painful - no doubt about that. But maybe, just maybe, I'll be able to do something a bit more useful and fulfilling with my life...poverty and hardship be dammed. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4374 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Heineken wrote:
Byron100 wrote:
Lumpy wrote:
Heineken wrote:
As important as the price itself is the rate of change. A sudden increase (over the course of, say, a few days or weeks) to $5 or $6 could well spawn panic and chaos.
I think you have hit the nail on the head, here. If we had gone from $1.89 to $4.99 overnight for diesel, for example, the freak-out would have been immediate.
As it is, however, people and the economy have more or less continued to acclimate/adapt, with increasing but gradual levels of discomfort. Obviously, that can only go on for a very finite period of time, though.
Lumpy
Yeah, that's why I'd give anything to see a "hat trick" of Cat 5s in the Gulf this summer, as well as massive mayhem in the Middle East, which would surely cause a doubling of fuel prices, not to mention severe, weeks-long shortages. This death by a 1000 cuts is taking way too long for me...I wanna see this go down fast...LOL.
America needs a really swift, vicious kick in the butt, and we need it soon.
I used to feel that way, but I don't any more, Byron.
I'm scared. For me, my family, my dog.
I worry a lot about my dog! Not being able to feed her properly, or give her her heartworm/whipworm medicine. She is a sweet little girl; I love her so.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 1:53 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
BigTex wrote:
We will probably get there, but I think that carpooling will be an intermediate mitigation effort that will probably relieve some of the gas price tension that would otherwise translate into social unrest.
Mitigate the gas price tension but increase the unemployment tension.
Carpooling is reduced economic activity.
Let's say 4 drivers decide to carpool.
3 cars sit still at home.
Those 3 cars no longer buy gas, tires, oil, batteries, fan belts, car washes, need new brakes, etc...nor have accidents.
The demand for these things fall off. And, as in any recession, jobs are cut.
The unemployed now stop buying everything else and more jobs are lost.
To counter this, more energy use is required to stimulate economic growth.
So, the choice may be: pay the price of gas or no job. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 174 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
MonteQuest wrote:
Carpooling is reduced economic activity.
[...]
So, the choice may be: pay the price of gas or no job.
So what you're saying is that the only way to cut oil usage is economic recession? _________________ The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 3:37 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
I am sorry to spoil the fun, apocophilic mates, but nothing of the sort you're all envisioning will happen until gas reaches +20$ gas or so..
I live in Romania and even if this country is not considered amongst the rich, people are used to paying something like 10$/gallon. It all seems normal. And we are poor. Of course the poorest people are the first to complain. Why on earth everybody is seeing doom everywhere if gas reaches 4, or 5 or 6$?? How silly!
Somebody mentioned it on a topic, and i'll second to that: people would much rather starve then stop buying gasoline.
Most gasoline consumers are addicted to oil like a drug . The only notable difference is that they inject it in their car instead of body.
Even Bush knows : "America is addicted to oil". (and not only america).
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 3:51 pm Post subject: Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
The difference is the distances found in the USA as compared to European countries and lack of public transportation. I live in the middle of the nation and its 60 miles between even the smaller towns. And no rail or bus service etc.
We have to drive at least 50 miles to any shopping at all.
jk
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