I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 10:14 am Post subject: Emigrating to NZ
I have for several years wanted to emigrate to New Zealand. However due to peak oil and other global problems I will be doing so as soon as possible, which should be in 2 years time. I figure if I don't then I might never be able to. I'm under no delusion of 'greener grass' and understand that NZ is not a perfect place, or even a better place to live post peak compared to the UK.
However I've made up my mind to go and need to do some preparing and research into NZ in regards to PO. If anyone can answer any of the following questions I would greatly appreciate it.
1) How would kiwi's take to a young white English guy? How would this change during bad economic times?
2) How can I 'integrate' with people, particularly in a rural area?
3) What areas of the south island would be good post peak? How much would a small cottage with some land cost in a rural area? Online list prices seem to vary wildly.
4) Any other information you feel I should know? _________________ April 2008 Global Population: 6.8 billion
April 2010 Global Population: 7 billion
April 2012 Global Population: 7.2 billion
We are a very long way from the rest of the world but we can feed ourselves as the population is low. Public transport is limited as most people rely on cars.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Reality Check:
New Zealand - only 5.5% arable land.
About 270,000 square kilometers total, for about, 15,000 square kilometers of arable land.
Population about 4 million.
00.00375 square kilometers per person.
That's 0.9 acres per human.
Let's see, what else.
They're in the middle of an ocean.
They're on the verge of depleting their single massive natural gas field.
There is an underlying animosity among the native population against the whites.
In short, New Zealand is going to be royally f---ed in a short few years.
If you plan to move there, I'd suggest you plan to live off the wilderness or something, because when all hell breaks loose, you're in a hamster cage with nowhere to go.
Just my 2 cents.
Don't be prideful Kiwis, be realistic.
NZFacts _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2106 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cash is right to a degree. Homo sapiens have made a royal mess of this country. Public transport is zero, debt rules the roost, governments of both hues are hell bent on growth, and there's a good deal of window dressing when it comes to the face we present to the world.
Having said that, going bush is one of this countries redeeming features (probably the only one), so if you are a pioneer at heart, well this is the place for you. However if you are looking for happy, placid and idyllic humanity, think again. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cashmere wrote:
Reality Check:
New Zealand - only 5.5% arable land.
About 270,000 square kilometers total, for about, 15,000 square kilometers of arable land.
Population about 4 million.
00.00375 square kilometers per person.
That's 0.9 acres per human.
Let's see, what else.
They're in the middle of an ocean.
They're on the verge of depleting their single massive natural gas field.
There is an underlying animosity among the native population against the whites.
In short, New Zealand is going to be royally f---ed in a short few years.
If you plan to move there, I'd suggest you plan to live off the wilderness or something, because when all hell breaks loose, you're in a hamster cage with nowhere to go.
Hmm. In the interests of accuracy, and a perspective of a little more depth than a quick scroll thru the CIA World Factbook, a few points. First, a little clarification on what constitutes a good level of arable land per capita, at least on a comparative basis. According to the World Bank's 2002 'World Development Indicators' table of arable land by country , New Zealand is sitting comfortably in the top 20%, as far as per capita arable land goes, with .41 hectares per capita. The US has .64, Argentina .69, Canada 1.51, Australia way out in front at 2.69, France .31, UK .1(.1 hectares per person, holy shite I wish my friends over there would come home soon!!). Also, to put in perspective the usefulness of this measure re determining where to settle, if you're basing your move on arable land per capita(I'm sure it's been your first priority ), perhaps you might consider Belarus (.61), Chad(.48 ), or Niger(.49)
Quote:
They're in the middle of an ocean.
This may be our biggest asset, depending on how things go, or it might not, that's the trouble with not having a crystal ball. But maybe being geographically isolated from an increasingly chaotic world will be a good thing, long term.
Quote:
They're on the verge of depleting their single massive natural gas field.
Yep, a lack of oil and gas is a massive problem facing NZ in the years to come. On the other hand, we are blessed with immense hydro resources, and the potential for wind, sun and tide is huge, if we ever get our sh*t together. The lack of action on these matters is hugely frustrating, but hardly unusual as far as the rest of the world goes.
Quote:
There is an underlying animosity among the native population against the whites.
This startling insight is obviously the result of years of deep immersion in local communities
There is a full range of viewpoints and feelings within Maori in NZ, just like in the rest of the community. There is a radical fringe, and a mainstream. Most importantly, old grievances are being addressed and injustices acknowledged, rather than being left to fester. Are things even close to perfect? Hell no. Maori(along with colonised indigenous people just about everywhere) have all the worst stats for unemployment, income, jail time, violence, illiteracy, poor health etc. There are real divides and animosity between some people in different ethnic groups. But I doubt our race relations are any worse than anywhere else, and it's a work in progress.
Quote:
In short, New Zealand is going to be royally f---ed in a short few years.
Wild conjecture, not borne out by the facts. Are we in for tough times? Of course. Will those times be tougher than in most other places? Nothing you say here convinces me that they will be, which is unsurprising given the superficial nature of your appraisal.
Re the OP,
Quote:
1) How would kiwi's take to a young white English guy? How would this change during bad economic times?
You'll be fine. Expect ongoing sh*it-giving, this is a reciprocal arrangement NZ has with the UK, as I can confirm from my time in your country (tip: never, ever complain about anything, no matter how legitimate the complaint. You will immediately be labelled a "whinging pom")
Quote:
2) How can I 'integrate' with people, particularly in a rural area?
Same as anywhere, get to know your neighbours, try and make connections. If there's a Maori community, as there may well be if you settle in the north, try learning a little of the language.
Quote:
3) What areas of the south island would be good post peak? How much would a small cottage with some land cost in a rural area? Online list prices seem to vary wildly.
No idea sorry, but the pound will certainly go a long way. Take your time, do lots of research into local conditions, some areas of the south island have very challenging weather conditions. Good luck!
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2106 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:17 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
yeahbut wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
Reality Check:
New Zealand - only 5.5% arable land.
About 270,000 square kilometers total, for about, 15,000 square kilometers of arable land.
Population about 4 million.
00.00375 square kilometers per person.
That's 0.9 acres per human.
Let's see, what else.
They're in the middle of an ocean.
They're on the verge of depleting their single massive natural gas field.
There is an underlying animosity among the native population against the whites.
In short, New Zealand is going to be royally f---ed in a short few years.
If you plan to move there, I'd suggest you plan to live off the wilderness or something, because when all hell breaks loose, you're in a hamster cage with nowhere to go.
Hmm. In the interests of accuracy, and a perspective of a little more depth than a quick scroll thru the CIA World Factbook, a few points. First, a little clarification on what constitutes a good level of arable land per capita, at least on a comparative basis. According to the World Bank's 2002 'World Development Indicators' table of arable land by country , New Zealand is sitting comfortably in the top 20%, as far as per capita arable land goes, with .41 hectares per capita. The US has .64, Argentina .69, Canada 1.51, Australia way out in front at 2.69, France .31, UK .1(.1 hectares per person, holy shite I wish my friends over there would come home soon!!). Also, to put in perspective the usefulness of this measure re determining where to settle, if you're basing your move on arable land per capita(I'm sure it's been your first priority ), perhaps you might consider Belarus (.61), Chad(.48 ), or Niger(.49)
Quote:
They're in the middle of an ocean.
This may be our biggest asset, depending on how things go, or it might not, that's the trouble with not having a crystal ball. But maybe being geographically isolated from an increasingly chaotic world will be a good thing, long term.
Quote:
They're on the verge of depleting their single massive natural gas field.
Yep, a lack of oil and gas is a massive problem facing NZ in the years to come. On the other hand, we are blessed with immense hydro resources, and the potential for wind, sun and tide is huge, if we ever get our sh*t together. The lack of action on these matters is hugely frustrating, but hardly unusual as far as the rest of the world goes.
Quote:
There is an underlying animosity among the native population against the whites.
This startling insight is obviously the result of years of deep immersion in local communities
There is a full range of viewpoints and feelings within Maori in NZ, just like in the rest of the community. There is a radical fringe, and a mainstream. Most importantly, old grievances are being addressed and injustices acknowledged, rather than being left to fester. Are things even close to perfect? Hell no. Maori(along with colonised indigenous people just about everywhere) have all the worst stats for unemployment, income, jail time, violence, illiteracy, poor health etc. There are real divides and animosity between some people in different ethnic groups. But I doubt our race relations are any worse than anywhere else, and it's a work in progress.
Quote:
In short, New Zealand is going to be royally f---ed in a short few years.
Wild conjecture, not borne out by the facts. Are we in for tough times? Of course. Will those times be tougher than in most other places? Nothing you say here convinces me that they will be, which is unsurprising given the superficial nature of your appraisal.
Re the OP,
Quote:
1) How would kiwi's take to a young white English guy? How would this change during bad economic times?
You'll be fine. Expect ongoing sh*it-giving, this is a reciprocal arrangement NZ has with the UK, as I can confirm from my time in your country (tip: never, ever complain about anything, no matter how legitimate the complaint. You will immediately be labelled a "whinging pom")
Quote:
2) How can I 'integrate' with people, particularly in a rural area?
Same as anywhere, get to know your neighbours, try and make connections. If there's a Maori community, as there may well be if you settle in the north, try learning a little of the language.
Quote:
3) What areas of the south island would be good post peak? How much would a small cottage with some land cost in a rural area? Online list prices seem to vary wildly.
No idea sorry, but the pound will certainly go a long way. Take your time, do lots of research into local conditions, some areas of the south island have very challenging weather conditions. Good luck!
yeahbut our lifestyle is still an unsustainable growth driven one sustained by an agricultural sector dependant on huge inputs of synthetic fertiliser.
Have you any idea what it costs to live out in the country? There is a major shift to towns and other urban centres in the region I live in due to the cost of petrol. All we need area few more interest rate hikes and rural New Zealand is in big trouble.
For all it costs this dude to move out here for the supposed good life, his pound would be better spent moving to a remote part of the UK like the Orkney Islands in Scotland. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 9:06 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
americandream wrote:
yeahbut our lifestyle is still an unsustainable growth driven one sustained by an agricultural sector dependant on huge inputs of synthetic fertiliser.
No arguments from me about the sustainability of modern agricultural practices, a.d.
Quote:
Have you any idea what it costs to live out in the country? There is a major shift to towns and other urban centres in the region I live in due to the cost of petrol.
No arguments about the difficulties of trying to transition, either. These problems exist just about everywhere, however(and fuel is even more expensive in the UK). My post mainly concerned cash's assertion that NZ is a particularly bad place to be. I find his position, so far, to be uninformed and unconvincing.
Quote:
All we need area few more interest rate hikes and rural New Zealand is in big trouble.
Indeed. I think just about everywhere could be heading for a big dunking
Quote:
For all it costs this dude to move out here for the supposed good life, his pound would be better spent moving to a remote part of the UK like the Orkney Islands in Scotland.
You may be right, I don't know how prices compare to NZ, or what growing, farming and weather conditions are like there. I imagine it to be pretty harsh, but maybe that's not correct? Also maybe no harsher than Otago and Southland. No rule saying he has to be in the coldest part of NZ tho.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 11:16 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Yeahbut, the good thing is, your money is where your mouth is. The bad thing is, you're going to choke on it.
1st, you're quoting 1999 data. In the 20 years preceding that, your arable land per capita was cut in half. I'm sure in another few years you'll be down to .8 or .7 arable acres per person.
Your arable land per person is .9 acres right now.
That, my dear friend, is barely cutting it WITH fossil fuels.
Without fossil fuels, that .9 per acre means FAMINE and CIVIL WAR.
You are in massive denial.
What I'm saying is hardly "massive speculation."
New Zealand is simply a modern, larger version of Easter Island.
You're fooling youself if you think you're going to be able to feed 4 million people - 4 MILLION - on 0.9 acres without fertilizer, pesticides, or FF tractors and such.
"Insulated" from the world?
Man, you really don't get it, and the sad part is, it's some weird sense of national pride that's causing your delusion. You're saying, "we're number such and such in arable acres." Who cares where you rank?
Bottom line is, you produce much less food than you eat, and you will not be able to produce enough food for yourself when oil runs out.
There ain't two ways to view that info - starvation, unless you can depend on bringing food in.
And who the hell is going to want to send you food when they can't feed themselves?
I wish you the best, but only Japan ranks higher on places that I would rather not be. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Nov 18, 2004 Posts: 215 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:12 am Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Well I for one am thankful to be here Can't think of anywhere else I'd rather be.
We've done the city to county move, and the north island to south island move! You'd probably be welcomed quicker in the South Island being English than we were being Aucklander's LOL! Are you thinking of buying or renting? What kind of work do you do? You might be limited to living close to one of the big cities.
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:50 am Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
If you eat fish and other things from the ocean, you could make friends with the Maoris'. Hopefully they still know how to fish. If they revert back to headhunting you could be in trouble as you would then be known as English long pig and be fair game. But all things considered I would like my chances there better than the U.K.
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 6:59 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cashmere, you said "you produce much less food than you eat" but I'm having difficulty believing this. Where did you find this out?
I did read somewhere that about 80% of the food in New Zealand supermarkets is imported from other countries, but that's because of the screwed up, unsustainable modern system in which most of our farmland is used for producing a huge volume of a relatively narrow range of foods for export.
I'm pretty confident that in a PO world NZ would struggle for a few years and probably lose a few hundred thousand people, but would eventually be able to support itself. Even assuming a 75% drop in production due to a lack of fertilizer, fuels and technology, this drop would be made up for by the fact that we wouldn't be exporting much of our food at all. We'd definately have to go back to basics in terms of diet (no more bananas, chocolate, coffee and other imported luxuries) but I think we'd be in a far better situation than most countries.
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
A New Zealander wrote:
Quote:
Cashmere, you said "you produce much less food than you eat" but I'm having difficulty believing this. Where did you find this out?
I did read somewhere that about 80% of the food in New Zealand supermarkets is imported from other countries. . .
Dude, read what you wrote.
What is in the water over there? _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 8:52 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
I'll try one last time.
You produce less food than you eat.
Without FF you can't grow nearly enough food to eat.
You are in the middle of nowhere, and you'll be last on the list to obtain any excess that may be available, although I think there will be none.
You have little or no non-FF equipment with which to farm.
If we have an 8% a year decline in oil production and diesel becomes scarce, you won't even be able to make the farm equipment you'd need to attempt to make up for the FF loss.
New Zealand is gorgeous, and a gem. Wonderful country, wonderful people.
But a trap. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:34 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cashmere wrote:
You produce less food than you eat.
Source??!!? Please answer KiwiDuncans original query with something other than fluff. A link to some government white paper, a research doc, something along those lines.
NZ has sheep - LOTS of sheep - an excellent food source. They are also surrounded by ocean which has significant fish stocks.
Sheep can largely be tended anywhere there is a bit of grass to graze on. Most of NZ is heavily wooded and preserved. If TSHTF, these forests could be cut down and used for agriculture or animal husbandry.
Measures of arable land tend to stick to areas that are currently realistic to include. Wooded national parks are not usually included in these types of figures. Mountainous areas tend to be excluded from such figures too. Tree removal (a source of valuable fuel) and terracing convert both of these areas to viable farming land.
I am not a Kiwi and I have never even been there so this is not some defensive response, just a bit of realism injected into the debate hopefully.
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page 1, 2, 3, 4Next
Page 1 of 4
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
), perhaps you might consider Belarus (.61), Chad(.48 ), or Niger(.49) 
(tip: never, ever complain about anything, no matter how legitimate the complaint. You will immediately be labelled a "whinging pom")
