Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:30 am Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
Quote:
I’m always amazed at statements like “well….that amount of added production is only X amount of consumption time. Let’s take ANWR as an example. OK……57 minutes a day…..that’s 360 hours each year…..and that’s 15 days a year. Let’s just call it two weeks to be conservative.
Everything you refer to is fair enough I'd say.
It's not that it's "insignificant" per se... it's just that given global demand for oil, & coupled with depletion rates for existing fields, all drilling ANWR will accomplish is to make folks like yourself rich, while encouraging consumption through slightly lower cost.
This will ensure that our world is more dependent than ever on oil, as we enter a time of diminishing supplies.
I do understand your thinking here, but it's based on the false promise of "what's next".
It's pure fantasy to expect supply will ever again meet demand for oil. In fact, peak oil dictates that supplies become more expensive & less available year after year, with sharp drops in supply an emerging reality.
So I contend that making oil slightly more affordable now, (10+ years from now), only multiplies the tragedy we face.
No offense... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
hironegro wrote:
I would only support drilling if we nationalized profits and use the windfall for a sensible power down and sensible power up with nuclear/alternative energies at the sametime.
Why would anybody drill it if we nationalized the profits? Oil companies aren't charities, they are in business to make a profit. Yeah, that nasty word...profit. I don't think that the shareholders of those companies would be too happy with their company spending billions of dollars for nothing.
Any other industries you think we should "nationalize" (read confiscate) the profits on?
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:11 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
No offense felt what so ever Aaron. I'm on this site to have just the type of discussion we're having. You take the time to think though the thoughts of others and offer alternative views. I truly believe that such discourse is the only way to acheive consensus and move toward a workable solution.
Read my words again: Po is coming regardless of what we do: drilling or voluntary conservation. You say the world would be more dependent than ever upon oil. That's not true: we are absolutely dependent upon oil right now. No less dependent than upon the air we breath. There is no substitute for oil/gas under any scenario for many decades. Just like being a "little pregnent"..you is or you ain't.
I wish like hell we had adopted Jimmy Carter's proposal 25 years ago (I actually voted for Jimmy...we engineers like to stick together)to start running up the tax on gasoline to force us away from our glutony. But we didn't and every politician (red and blue) since then has failed to prepare society to adjust to a diminishing hydrocarbon based economy. But that's history. Can't change it.
I'm not a doomer but I am very concerned about the fragility of our society. Whether we like to think about it or not we are not as tough as the folks who survived the depression. But if want to avoid facing such a test we need to get away from the bumper sticker mentality (both pro and con) and start applying every tool we have available which could allow us a soft landing instead of a demoralizing crash. At 58 yo I'm set for life. But I have an 8 yo daughter who wants to be a horse vet. I'd like to think that in 15 years or so our society will have the disposable income to accomodate her dream.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:16 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
Electric_Economy_2025 wrote:
I like how you always say power down, instead of saying several billion people must die, I guess it's easier for you to talk about it then huh ?
Get a grip and read my threads on these issus. I don't mince words.
We must powerdown and reduce the population.
Several billion are going to die even if we do that.
We are in overshoot. Nature will correct this. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
Quote:
I'd like to think that in 15 years or so our society will have the disposable income to accomodate her dream.
Even if the price of her dream means a harder fall for everyone else?
I have not doubt we will drill ANWR... & everywhere else we can think of in our desperation. I believe we will burn everything which can be burned, in our insane panic to maintain our "birthright".
And the world will suffer the consequences of our lack of vision 10 fold.
The solution to crack addiction... is never more crack.
Just how big did you want to grow our little human experiment before we face nature's impartial reality anyway? _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
MonteQuest wrote:
Electric_Economy_2025 wrote:
I like how you always say power down, instead of saying several billion people must die, I guess it's easier for you to talk about it then huh ?
Get a grip and read my threads on these issus. I don't mince words.
We must powerdown and reduce the population.
Several billion are going to die even if we do that.
We are in overshoot. Nature will correct this.
No we're not. You've never shown that. You never can. You'll die of old age still insisting we're in overshoot and then spout off a bunch of anecdotes while the population is still in excess of seven billion.
My favorite was you're post of the paper of environmental sinks that were being used up to prove we're in overshoot, when the only environmental service that was experiencing any significant pressure over the last 40 years were CO2 sinks... which are largely irrelevant in the long run of depleted fossil fuels.
Back on topic, I still think its ironic that people are so vocally opposed to offshore drilling when its nearly entirely benign while there is much indifference to coal mining.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
Dezakin wrote:
You must be terrified of a future where we aren't actually in overshoot then, where global energy production is several times larger than it is today.
You still have no grasp of what overshoot means. The only way out of overshoot is a reduction in a species's population.
You are talking about enlarging carrying capacity when limits are being approached.
We are not approaching limits; we have overshot them by orders of magnitude.
Two entirely different concepts. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
MonteQuest wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
You must be terrified of a future where we aren't actually in overshoot then, where global energy production is several times larger than it is today.
You still have no grasp of what overshoot means. The only way out of overshoot is a reduction in a species's population.
You are talking about enlarging carrying capacity when limits are being approached.
We are not approaching limits; we have overshot them by orders of magnitude.
Two entirely different concepts.
I know exactly what you're saying, I'm just saying you're wrong. We haven't overshot carrying capacity.
You only assert. You've never provided anything more than anecdotes to support your claim. The one time I've seen you post a study it undermined your position. You seem to think that carrying capacity can only decline.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:38 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
Snik wrote:
It is a multifaceted problem which must be attacked on all fronts. Everything from conservation, to research and development of new technologies, to drilling for new reserves, to additional use of existing renewable energy sources.
All fronts? I see no mention of powering down or reducing the population.
You actually believe that we can overlook that elephant in the room?
Quote:
To say that any one of these things is going to be THE answer is, of course, absurd. However, the aggregate of all of them is a different story altogether.
No, it is not. Not even close.
Quote:
Keep in mind too, that every barrel we don't produce here is a barrel we have to import.
Sorry, US production of oil even from all possible sources will not keep up with import demand and offsert existing decline.
We might be able to slow the rate of growth of imports at best.
ANWR alone would reduce our trade deficit by over a trillion dollars over it's lifetime. Thats a trillion dollars that stays in this country instead of going overseas.
Quote:
But why would we leave those reserves in the ground? For what purpose? They are doing no one any good underground.
That kind of thinking is why we used 1 trillion barrels of oil in 125 years and why we have this crisis.
What about future generations? Why not leave something for them?
Hmmm? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
ROCKMAN wrote:
That is $24 billion a year that’s stays in the economy instead of sending overseas to people that hate us..
More disinformation. Only 17% ofour imported oil comes from the Middle east. Most of it comes from Canada and Mexico.
So, you mean $4 billion wouldn't go to those who hate us, right? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
ROCKMAN wrote:
Seriously though, Snik and I are on the same page I think. As long as prices stay high I'm in tall cotton. I can almost charge what I want as a consultant. A significant increase in production or reduction in consumption would only reduce my income potential. But I would gladly trade that for a chance to let the country adjust to the new reality.
It's good to have people around who can grasp the distinction. I'm not anti-corporate, or perhaps I should say, I'm resigned to their existence. They're part of industrialized society, what are you going to do?
It'd be ideal if we could find a way for energy companies to morph into servicing renewable energy projects or the like, but it seems they're largely one trick ponies. If we've moved away from hydrocarbons what does a petroleum geologist do? (Bet you guys have some examples!) 'Course we'll still be utilizing oil/gas on some scale for a long time.
But it'd be better if investment capital went in other directions. Some offshore should be part of the mix but ANWR is just too energy/capital/time intensive to warrant the yields, IMO. It does look like political will to oppose it will collapse soon, definitely if shortages begin; but perhaps we'll regret our decision to go down that road after 4-5 years. I'm reminded of the WPPSS nuclear power boondoggle, which could have been prevented with more foresight. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:49 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
Snik wrote:
If we don't wake up, in another generation we won't be producing or manufacturing much of anything here.
No, if we do wake up, we won't be producing or manufacturing much of anything ever again.
We will be living within limits. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:52 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
Snik wrote:
Your thinking makes no sense whatsoever. It is completely failed logic, and is the line of thinking that has helped get us into this mess. By your way of thinking we what, allow drilling in these areas when oil reaches $500/BO? Or is there some other magic number? I am guessing that a few years ago you might have said $100.
You are asserting that my argument is failed logic; yet show no reasoning as to HOW it is failed.
As to price targets, I've *ALWAYS* asserted that oil has been, and remains today, ridiculously cheap for what it does. So no, I would not have given a magic number of $100 a few years ago. Gasoline at $5 a gallon is a political irritant nothing more.
If a strategic analyst se-l-ects a coming significant reduction in the amount of oil produced globally as a premise; a sound strategic policy is to withhold your own resources from the market, acquire as much of everyone elses resource first for the price of printed money you control; then produce your own resources to manage the years of decline with more effectiveness than your external competition.
Quote:
has made this country one of the greatest ever on the planet.
Jingoism... Everyone thinks their country is "one of the greatest ever..." Not that America is a bad place, but superlatives always seem more dogmatic than rational.
Quote:
Your line of thinking is the same that has shut down, or severely curtailed industry after industry in this country with the "why here", and NIMBY (not in my back yard) thinking.
I'm not a NIMBY; front yard, back yard, fine by me, long as the royalty check shows up on time.
Personally, I'm not at all opposed to drilling in ANWR or CA/FL coastal waters; I'm pointing out that such a decision to prevent drilling there can be defended from a strategic, non-environmentalist point of view. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Nov 27, 2004 Posts: 251 Location: The District
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
Only 17% ofour imported oil comes from the Middle east. Most of it comes from Canada and Mexico.
So, you mean $4 billion wouldn't go to those who hate us, right?
Well, actually I think Canadians do actually hate us too, sometimes. Maybe just not as much? _________________ What fortune has made yours is not your own. -Seneca
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