Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2691 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:34 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
I guess the Alberta stuff has to do with the new oil royalty regime, and the rather startling improvements in the North American NG situation. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Well folks,
That flag formation broke down.
What usually happens after a flag formation breaks to the down side?
I'm betting we ATLEAST go down to the 40 day moving average (blue line below) which has been support for the last few months.
Is this when the long overdue major correction(technically) to the 200 dma happens???? I'm betting since things are so strong fundamentally that maybe it won't be now but ya never know. I think it might be after the summer....
Joined: Aug 13, 2005 Posts: 262 Location: Sydney, Australia.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:45 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Could this having anything to do with it?
Quote:
China Lifts Fuel Prices, And Oil Falls In Response
BEIJING -- China, widely seen as the one nation most responsible for the soaring demand and price of oil in recent years, reminded the world it can nudge both in the other direction as well.
The government, which controls domestic fuel prices, raised its base price for gasoline by 17% and diesel by 18%, a move that global oil traders quickly concluded could diminish the country's voracious appetite for fuel. Benchmark crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $4.75 a barrel, or 3.5%, to $131.93.
WSJ
Look forward to fuel riots in China. Can't have all those tourists using government subsidized fuel during the Olympics.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
chuck6877 wrote:
Well folks,
That flag formation broke down.
What usually happens after a flag formation breaks to the down side?
I dunno. That was a pretty wimpy breakout. The low today was still higher than the low on 6/10 or 6/11. I think the pennant was a red herring. Here's my guess. Draw a line below the bodies of the candles for the last 6 days. You get a remarkably steady downtrend. My prediction is, that trend will continue for maybe three or four more days. Once we get down below the 20dma, say somewhere around 129, it'll be set for blastoff again. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5512 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:34 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
smallpoxgirl wrote:
chuck6877 wrote:
Well folks,
That flag formation broke down.
What usually happens after a flag formation breaks to the down side?
I dunno. That was a pretty wimpy breakout. The low today was still higher than the low on 6/10 or 6/11. I think the pennant was a red herring. Here's my guess. Draw a line below the bodies of the candles for the last 6 days. You get a remarkably steady downtrend. My prediction is, that trend will continue for maybe three or four more days. Once we get down below the 20dma, say somewhere around 129, it'll be set for blastoff again.
Falling prices will have to fight reports of declining OPEC exports in July, as well as the counter-intutive fact that China lifting retail energy prices will actually increase oil demand (as shortages are eliminated). _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
smallpoxgirl wrote:
chuck6877 wrote:
Well folks,
That flag formation broke down.
What usually happens after a flag formation breaks to the down side?
I dunno. That was a pretty wimpy breakout. The low today was still higher than the low on 6/10 or 6/11. I think the pennant was a red herring. Here's my guess. Draw a line below the bodies of the candles for the last 6 days. You get a remarkably steady downtrend. My prediction is, that trend will continue for maybe three or four more days. Once we get down below the 20dma, say somewhere around 129, it'll be set for blastoff again.
I too noticed the steadily lower lows. Today was just the first time we actually CLOSED that low which matters more than intraday stuff. If it's going to go down to $129, it probably will go ahead and hit that 40 dma that I have in blue in the chart above. It's been good support. I agree we'll probably see another blastoff from there.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 4:13 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Oil prices are going down because of the ending (well, not totally, in fact, but this is the direction) of subsidized gazoline in China. Another way to say it : demand destruction.
As someone said on another thread, demand destruction means economy destruction.
But as demand lags after supply, there won't be enough demand destruction to really ease pressure on the barrel of oil... I bet oil prices will go though... a plateau
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:17 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Quote:
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to pump around 900,000 barrels a day more in June compared with the previous month due to increased output from Saudi Arabia and Iran, tanker tracker Petrologistics said Friday.
Output from all 13 OPEC members is expected to average 32.8 million barrels a day in June, up from 31.9 million barrels a day in May, the Geneva-based tracker said.
Saudi Arabia's oil production is projected to reach 9.45 million barrels a day compared to 9 million barrels in May.
"The Saudis will do their bit...and it will probably go up a bit further in July," said Petrologistics head Conrad Gerber.
Iran's supplies were forecast to reach 3.98 million barrels a day, from 3.49 million barrels a day in May.
The country has sold "quite a bit" from its floating oil storage volumes, which stood at around 40 million barrels in May, Gerber said. He expected Iran's crude storage to clear out to its typical commercial volumes of around 10 million barrels by the end of the summer.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:53 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Quote:
OPEC president rules out output hike
ALGIERS (Thomson Financial) - OPEC president Chakib Khelil said on Friday it was illogical and irrational to ask the oil cartel to increase output so as to take the pressure off soaring prices, the Algerie Presse Service news agency reported.
WASHINGTON — Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities...
_________________ Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:59 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Oil is now band (range) trading between $130 and $138. That's all. Everyone can use whatever news items they want to justify, in each day there are good and bad stories so take your pick. The fact is the people who know how to trade are extracting a lot of wealth (or so they think) out of that volatility.
This news piece that Leanan posted about the guy saying peak oil is a myth and CERA only found an average 4.5% decline in it's study of 800 fields. that kind of nonsense just confuses people. 4.5% per year is greater than a linear 4.5% drop per year which leaves us down over 20% in five years. What planet exactly are we living on? It sure isn't Earth.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:31 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
DantesPeak wrote:
smallpoxgirl wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
Funny how they don't mention oil/product imports were down 11.4% as compared to last year used the same criteria as above.
Well...they did. I just didn't quote that part.
Quote:
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 9.7 million barrels per day last week, down 98 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, 819 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged about 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 127 thousand barrels per day last week.
You are right , but...
They could have said supplies were falling 9 times as fast as demand was falling, but that might scare a few people into thinking we are actually in an energy crisis and not being manipulated by - your choice - big oil, Cheney, OPEC, speculators, drilling restrictions, etc.
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