Coal: Resources and Future Production

MonteQuest

Many of you have seen the commercial about the coal resources of the US on TV. A child tells us that we have 250 years of coal in the US. We are lead to believe we have an energy backup to offset the coming decline in oil and natural gas production, both here in the US and worldwide.

According to the EIA figures, we have about 255 years of coal remaining in the year 2000 given our current rate of consumption. That prediction assumes equal use of all grades of coal, from anthracite to lignite. Population growth alone reduces the calculated lifetime to some 90-120 years. However, if we look back in history, we see that there were 300 years of coal reserves in 1988, 1000 years reserves in 1904, and 10,000 years reserves in 1868! As each year goes by, our coal consumption increases and we see that the projection becomes meaningless. And if we suddenly move to a bigger reliance on coal, and coal liquidfaction for gas, then this estimate would surely drop dramatically.

This new study paints an even bleaker picture on the future of coal, noting that the US peaked 5 years ago in terms of net energy of the coal produced. In other words, we get less bang for the buck and for the quantity produced.

Coal: Resources and Future Production

auscanman

Frightening stuff.

Even if the US could ramp up actual production of coal I find it hard to believe the dilapidated train system you have could significantly increase the volume transported, and thus consumed. Is the decreasing quality/energy output of the coal being mined combined with a capacity limited by your rail system perhaps the reason the energy output from coal in the US is in decline?

jbeckton · Expert Joined: Jan 05, 2007 Posts: 1920

Our coal delivery rail service has been laying people off for years, they could deliver much more than they currently do. Also, a lot of the coal used in the eastern US is trucked in but barges play a big role because every coal power plant that I know of is located on a river or lake. There is also some interesting work in turbine blade cooling that could increace the efficiency of a plant.

Transportation is not the problem, supply will be one day. I know reports change but you might have noticed that they tend to change by a much smaller ratio as knowledge is gained. I can only tell you that no supply shortages are felt now, otherwise nuclear power would be starting to get more attention. As long as CTL remains on the drawing board, instead of under construction, in the US we have other things to worry about.

Roccland · Peak Oil Prophet Joined: Jun 16, 2007 Posts: 1696

Until or unless the National Environmental Policy Act is suspended...it does not matter how much coal is or is not left...coal fired power plants are not being permitted within development schedules.

See http://desert-rock-blog.com/
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yesplease · Fission Joined: Oct 03, 2006 Posts: 2319

The_Virginian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 19, 2004 Posts: 1528

If it will BURN , we will use it.

Once REALITY sets in, the masses will clamor for COAL.

Peak or not....I would like to know if ALL of our Electricity and esp. HEATING needs were supplied by Coal..how long would the projection run ????
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Tyler_JC

That depends...

Higher demand would push up coal prices which would make some formerly worthless deposits recoverable.

Would the entire world be using coal or would this be solely a US affair?

Are we heating our homes 19th century style or are we assuming high efficiency usage?

Also, is this electric heat or stove heat?

What kind of societal factors should I factor in? If we move southward, we will use less coal because we'd need less heat.

Global warming (which would speed up given a large surge in coal consumption) would reduce demand for coal by reducing heating needs but increase demand for coal given higher A/C demands in the summer.

Population growth?

Economic growth?

How fast are we shutting off the nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, wind, etc. in order to replace them with coal?

Carbon taxes? Carbon capture and storage (sequestration)? Cap and trade?

I don't need to continue with this. I think you get it. There is no simple answer to a question like that. Well, there's a simple answer but it's not a good answer.

255 years of coal at current consumption. Coal is currently 1/3 of that.

Triple coal consumption overnight ( Rolling Eyes

) and that 255 years becomes 85 years.

Throw in a reasonable estimate for population/economic growth and that 85 years gets cut by a third. Down to 60 years...

Of course, if we burned that much coal, that fast, we'd suffocate on our own fumes.

Cheers.
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jato

When does coal production peak in the US? At what rate?
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alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 799

There is far too much coal left! At least if you think of Global Warming.
But I am pessimistic. Unless most of our infrastructure will break down, they / we will burn the coal.
All what gov. do about Global Warming is like a toothless tiger.

Fabian · Coal Joined: Apr 10, 2008 Posts: 4

For national security coal can be a solution at least for a few years (50-200). However, how will coal affect climate change. We have enough coal to severely affect global climates.

http://www.4futureenergy.com

GASMON

What will our children think, when we fight for oil ?.

What will our grand children think, when the oil has gone ?.

What will our great grand children think, when they fight for coal ?.

What will their children think, when the coal has gone ?.
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