Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:38 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
In one sense, the numbers don't really matter. If one billion, or 100,000 or just about any number of humans survive and they are still stuck in mindsets that generate overshoots, they will be doing everything in their clever human power to re-enact the mega-destruction modern humans have subjected the world to.
That's why the struggle for me is not so much to save this or that, but to find kinds of stories to enact that don't drive us toward destruction.
Bean, I liked your question about an ancient shaman. Alice Walker had an essay a few years back speculating about just that. We do seem to be living out some ancient curse. MQ is surely right that things really got going in relatively recent times, but I suspect the deepest roots of this madness go much further back.
And good for you for getting into gardening. Maybe you can keep us posted on what you are learning.
Joined: Jan 01, 2007 Posts: 208 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:52 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
Monte,
When you say “Power Down” are you referring to Richard Heinberg’s version of Power Down, or do you have another version? I have tried to search for your definition of Power Down, but have not been able to locate it. I would greatly appreciate a link if possible.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:16 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
MrBean wrote:
I don't know if I do posit any such thing, but I do have a strong suspicion that photosyntesis is much more efficient EROEI wise in "diverting energy from sun" than any man made technology using secondary products from photosynthesis - no matter how fast that fossile residue is used up. Photosyntesis is the primary, fossile is secondary, and if you know the physics and can do the calculations, the amount of energy that a forest at maximum state of growth captures from sun is a lot.
Then why have we bothered with fossil fuels at all?
Seriously, I am going to be kind here. You do not have enough grasp of the concepts here to even have an opinion, much less debate the topic.
Do some homework.
Read Catton's book on Overshoot. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:23 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
careinke wrote:
Monte,
When you say “Power Down” are you referring to Richard Heinberg’s version of Power Down, or do you have another version? I have tried to search for your definition of Power Down, but have not been able to locate it. I would greatly appreciate a link if possible.
I'll bump the thread up as well. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:27 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
MonteQuest wrote:
How are you going to get the birthrate less than the death rate before we hit that wall?
You are depressing me bigtime, Monte. Your arguments are compelling but in the end, it's still all just an educated guess. I have to hold out hope that fear of die-off will eventually create a global epiphany event rather than WWIII. I think most of us feel the same way, that knowing what the stakes are is the first necessary step to mitigation. Until we get there, we have every reason to be as pessimistic as you. _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:41 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
mos6507 wrote:
You are depressing me bigtime, Monte. Your arguments are compelling but in the end, it's still all just an educated guess.
Hardly. The science of species overshoot and collapse is well-known and documented and is not up for debate.
Populations in overshoot always die-off.
It is the way the world works.
Too many people have the hubris to think the laws that govern the balanceof all other living things, just doesn't apply to us.
Montequest wrote:
By the time mankind had a grasp on science/ecology and realized there were limits, he was already past many of them. Our “special nature” and uniqueness came a little too late.
Quote:
I have to hold out hope that fear of die-off will eventually create a global epiphany event rather than WWIII. I think most of us feel the same way, that knowing what the stakes are is the first necessary step to mitigation. Until we get there, we have every reason to be as pessimistic as you.
Pessimistic? It isn't pessimisim that causes me to post, it is knowledge.
Ignorance of energy and biology are the two greatest obstacles to a sustainable future...right after denial. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:51 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
MonteQuest wrote:
Hardly. The science of species overshoot and collapse is well-known and documented and is not up for debate.
What do you intend to do with this knowledge other than depressing other people? _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:01 am Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
mos6507 wrote:
What do you intend to do with this knowledge other than depressing other people?
Oh, so life isn't the infinite growth you have grown to love and it depresses you to learn there are limits?
Tough.
Mother Nature bats last. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:29 am Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
"fear of die-off will eventually create a global epiphany event"
mos, you have to admit that MQ is doing much more than most (in his own charming way ) to raise awareness about--and so instill rational fear of--die off. And exactly this is a prerequisite for your own desperate hope for a global epiphany. So maybe he's more optimistic in his own way than about anyone on the forum?
No one is likely to make radical changes unless they understand the radical nature of the situation. (Not that understanding is sufficient, or that, at this point, even radical universal change is going to guarantee that we avert the worst.)
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 553 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:30 am Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
MonteQuest, I'm getting drunk more often and tonight is an example to that but I'm just curious, is moving to Norway a bad idea? I'm talking south west Norway...good idea..bad idea? I don't think Norway is to experience any massive die-off. Possibly around Oslo...but I'm thinking of an area called Karmoy. I'll also be looking at Finland but Norway is under consideration at the same time. Just curious what you think, I'm trying to avoid areas of food riots and zombie hoards....you know, little stuff. Give me your thoughts, cuz you aren't giving me replies to my personal messages. I still respect you though. Merci bien Monte...
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:37 am Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
Mos wrote:
You are depressing me bigtime, Monte. Your arguments are compelling but in the end, it's still all just an educated guess. I have to hold out hope that fear of die-off will eventually create a global epiphany event rather than WWIII.
This from the man who noted in another thread that he thinks attacking Iran is a good thing as long as there is U.N. support!!
Ha!
That's some fine sh-t there Mos. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:40 am Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
MonteQuest wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
What do you intend to do with this knowledge other than depressing other people?
Oh, so life isn't the infinite growth you have grown to love and it depresses you to learn there are limits?
Tough.
Mother Nature bats last.
You didn't answer the question. _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:49 am Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
dohboi wrote:
No one is likely to make radical changes unless they understand the radical nature of the situation. (Not that understanding is sufficient, or that, at this point, even radical universal change is going to guarantee that we avert the worst.)
According to Monte no amount of powerdown will avert a collossal die-off in which the odds will be firmly stacked against you, so I don't see how anyone who buys into his predictions would even bother powering down. Why not just party like it's 1999 or maybe go the other way, buy ammo, and head for the hills?
So I just don't see how Monte is doing anyone any big favor in his doomerism. The future will take care of itself anyway and the survivors will proclaim who was right and who was wrong after the fact. _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
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) to raise awareness about--and so instill rational fear of--die off. And exactly this is a prerequisite for your own desperate hope for a global epiphany. So maybe he's more optimistic in his own way than about anyone on the forum?
