Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cashmere wrote:
A New Zealander wrote:
Quote:
Cashmere, you said "you produce much less food than you eat" but I'm having difficulty believing this. Where did you find this out?
I did read somewhere that about 80% of the food in New Zealand supermarkets is imported from other countries. . .
Dude, read what you wrote.
What is in the water over there?
Read the rest of what I wrote. Yes, we import shitloads of food, because we export a huge proportion of the stuff we produce here. If we stopped exporting all our food and rediversified our farmlands rather than trying to be the dairy farm of the world I'm pretty sure we'd be better off than most.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cashmere wrote:
Man, you really don't get it, and the sad part is, it's some weird sense of national pride that's causing your delusion. You're saying, "we're number such and such in arable acres." Who cares where you rank?
You kid, right? Do you really think I posted that as a ' look where NZ ranks in the world arable hectares/capita tables, go kiwi! ' , type of deal? We kicked Uruguay's arse, alright! Come on cash, that's just ridiculous. Surely it's obvious that I quoted those figures as part of my response to the reasons you gave as to why NZ will be such a terrible place to be.
As a recap, those reasons were: amount of arable land/capita, race relations, local oil and gas supplies, and "they're in the middle of an ocean". I pointed out that NZ is no worse for the first three factors than many other places, and a good deal better than many. This leaves isolation as the one factor from your list that makes NZ unique in comparison to other countries. I am yet to be convinced that isolation is so terrible a fate in the times that are to come. For instance, why would it be better to be in the UK? Slightly smaller land area; much worse climate; appalling arable land to population ratio; 60 million people, rather than 4 million. How is that preferable in a worst case, TS has HTF scenario?
I really don't think you've provided a convincing argument for your proposition that NZ would be the worst place to be(excepting Japan!) in a post-peak world. Thus far, anyway.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:21 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
yeahbut wrote:
For instance, why would it be better to be in the UK? Slightly smaller land area; much worse climate; appalling arable land to population ratio; 60 million people, rather than 4 million. How is that preferable in a worst case, TS has HTF scenario?
I don't think anyone has said it would be better to be in the UK than NZ. I live in the UK and life could become very difficult indeed unless some level of trade still exists.
But I think if someone is concerned enough about PO to emmigrate then it would be best to aim for somewhere with a significant advantage ... Canada? (hard to get in), Australia? (bit short on water), Norway, France or Poland perhaps?
I'm staying put though. It may turn into hell, but it's home.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1989 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:34 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cashmere wrote:
Your arable land per person is .9 acres right now.
You're talking about land area that is currently used as arable land, not land that could be used as arable land. Even talking of current land use, including permanent crops ("land cultivated for crops like citrus, coffee, and rubber that are not replanted after each harvest; includes land under flowering shrubs, fruit trees, nut trees, and vines, but excludes land under trees grown for wood or timber"), per capita use is almost exactly 2 acres. Bio intensive methods can feed at least 6 people on an acre, with a varied diet and soil improvement crops. With only 4 million people and a land area equivalent to the UK, I don't think New Zealanders need to worry on being able to feed themselves. A huge proportion of our produce is already exported, and that will stop.
Cashmere wrote:
You're fooling youself if you think you're going to be able to feed 4 million people - 4 MILLION - on 0.9 acres without fertilizer, pesticides, or FF tractors and such.
Even at only .9 acres per person, there is no problem with food production without fossil fuels.
Cashmere wrote:
I wish you the best, but only Japan ranks higher on places that I would rather not be.
Hey, you don't have to come here (unless you're already here and want to stop others coming).
New Zealand also has a fairly mild climate, plenty of sun, usually plenty of rain, and plenty of wind. Surrounded by sea also.
Nah, New Zealand is a pretty good place to be post peak, though anything could happen. If the Chinese invade, then it might not be too great, but there is no guarantee almost anywhere.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1989 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
energycity wrote:
I don't think anyone has said it would be better to be in the UK than NZ.
Cashmere did:
Cashmere wrote:
only Japan ranks higher on places that I would rather not be
energycity wrote:
I'm staying put though. It may turn into hell, but it's home.
Home is where you make it. I managed to get out of the UK three years ago. I'm glad I did, despite Cashmere's attempts to paint NZ as the second worst country to be in the world.
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Firstly, I would like to thank everyone for their comments, especially those who provided useful information.
Secondly, I realise NZ may not be the best place post peak, but thats not why I wish to emigrate there. You can't base everything you do around PO, or you will be hiding in a subterranean fortress for the rest of your life. Live a little.
If anyone does have a good guide to property prices, please share, I realise prices have started going down a bit. _________________ April 2008 Global Population: 6.8 billion
April 2010 Global Population: 7 billion
April 2012 Global Population: 7.2 billion
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1989 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Ainan wrote:
Firstly, I would like to thank everyone for their comments, especially those who provided useful information.
Secondly, I realise NZ may not be the best place post peak, but thats not why I wish to emigrate there. You can't base everything you do around PO, or you will be hiding in a subterranean fortress for the rest of your life. Live a little.
If anyone does have a good guide to property prices, please share, I realise prices have started going down a bit.
The property market is dead. Almost nothing is getting sold where I live. So it's a buyer's market and I expect prices to go a lot lower. For some reason, New Zealanders hate dropping the price on their properties, even if it's been on the market for many months, so a bit of serious haggling will be needed.
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Quote:
Even assuming a 75% drop in production due to a lack of fertilizer, fuels and technology, this drop would be made up for by the fact that we wouldn't be exporting much of our food at all. We'd definately have to go back to basics in terms of diet (no more bananas, chocolate, coffee and other imported luxuries) but I think we'd be in a far better situation than most countries.
75% drop in production and you lose 3 million people to starvation, minimum.
You'll be better off than Sudan and Japan, that's for sure. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
_________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:52 pm Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Cashmere wrote:
Quote:
Even assuming a 75% drop in production due to a lack of fertilizer, fuels and technology, this drop would be made up for by the fact that we wouldn't be exporting much of our food at all. We'd definately have to go back to basics in terms of diet (no more bananas, chocolate, coffee and other imported luxuries) but I think we'd be in a far better situation than most countries.
75% drop in production and you lose 3 million people to starvation, minimum.
You'll be better off than Sudan and Japan, that's for sure.
I sure you're just pulling these stats out of your arse. Can't you get your head around the fact that NZ exports vastly more food than it consumes?
New Zealand food products help feed millions and millions of people around the world. A 75% drop in production due to a lack of fertilizers, fuels and so on would simply mean we'd cut our exports.
Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 40 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 5:00 am Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Currently 1% of NZ's population (40,000) are directly affiliated with criminal gangs mostly inhabiting the rural areas, for each affiliated (patched) gang member there could be up to 20 prospects looking to earn their patch. My biggest fear for NZ post PO are these gangs and the power they will hold once the normal legal systems break down. I certainly wouldn't want to live in the country unless I was part of a community that was either heavily defended or had sufficient resources to pay protection from one of the larger gangs. The city particuarly Wellington is the best place to make your stand. Try to get into a detached property with a garden around Wellington central. The presence of parlament and civil servants in residence will hopefully ensure police and military rule of law and provision of food and other necessities of life. Happily the failing economy and housing market makes ownership of central Wellington property viable for now. Assuming the government doesn't remove people from their homes, central wellington will be a good place to wait out the chaos until NZ reverts to a coal based economy. _________________ "I'm here to fight for truth, and justice, and the American way" - Superman
Moped
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1989 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 5:14 am Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Moped wrote:
Currently 1% of NZ's population (40,000) are directly affiliated with criminal gangs mostly inhabiting the rural areas, for each affiliated (patched) gang member there could be up to 20 prospects looking to earn their patch. My biggest fear for NZ post PO are these gangs and the power they will hold once the normal legal systems break down. I certainly wouldn't want to live in the country unless I was part of a community that was either heavily defended or had sufficient resources to pay protection from one of the larger gangs. The city particuarly Wellington is the best place to make your stand. Try to get into a detached property with a garden around Wellington central. The presence of parlament and civil servants in residence will hopefully ensure police and military rule of law and provision of food and other necessities of life. Happily the failing economy and housing market makes ownership of central Wellington property viable for now. Assuming the government doesn't remove people from their homes, central wellington will be a good place to wait out the chaos until NZ reverts to a coal based economy.
I can't see a reversion to a coal based economy (depending on what you mean by "economy").
I don't think the gangs will be much of a problem, except early in collapse, in the larger centres.
Wellington is right on a major fault line, which is why I haven't considered it.
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Moped wrote:
Currently 1% of NZ's population (40,000) are directly affiliated with criminal gangs mostly inhabiting the rural areas, for each affiliated (patched) gang member there could be up to 20 prospects looking to earn their patch. My biggest fear for NZ post PO are these gangs and the power they will hold once the normal legal systems break down. I certainly wouldn't want to live in the country unless I was part of a community that was either heavily defended or had sufficient resources to pay protection from one of the larger gangs. The city particuarly Wellington is the best place to make your stand. Try to get into a detached property with a garden around Wellington central. The presence of parlament and civil servants in residence will hopefully ensure police and military rule of law and provision of food and other necessities of life. Happily the failing economy and housing market makes ownership of central Wellington property viable for now. Assuming the government doesn't remove people from their homes, central wellington will be a good place to wait out the chaos until NZ reverts to a coal based economy.
Interesting point, it seems very odd for New Zealand to have a gang culture, especially in rural areas. Do you have any more information about this? I have seen a documentary on it before. _________________ April 2008 Global Population: 6.8 billion
April 2010 Global Population: 7 billion
April 2012 Global Population: 7.2 billion
Joined: May 06, 2008 Posts: 295 Location: Omicron Ceti 3
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 8:33 am Post subject: Re: Emigrating to NZ
Moped wrote:
Currently 1% of NZ's population (40,000) are directly affiliated with criminal gangs mostly inhabiting the rural areas, for each affiliated (patched) gang member there could be up to 20 prospects looking to earn their patch.
1% belonging to criminal gangs seems like a huge percentage.
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Come on cash, that's just ridiculous. Surely it's obvious that I quoted those figures as part of my response to the reasons you gave as to why NZ will be such a terrible place to be.
