Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 6:39 am Post subject: Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’
socrates1fan wrote:
Peakoilpost wrote:
“So yes, oil will one day peak. But it won't be in our lifetimes, or our even our grandchildren’s.
."
Idiot.
This is exactly what I disgust.
Leave the mess for the next generation.
The time to prepare is now. Not "a few" years from now, not in 5 years, not sometime in our lifetimes or in our grandchildrens. Its time to get ready. The next generation will have what we learn as long as we pass it on. The mess is now. The mess is happening now. And there is no tomorrow. There is no tomorrow, tomorrow never comes (it is always around the corner). There is only today. Dont wait. Dont wait for the crash. Do research and learn and then get ready.
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 8:06 am Post subject: Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’
I just watched the CNN report with Frank Sesno last night, the "Out of Gas: We Were Warned." My husband watched with me.
Made a believer out of us both. I'm now offically a Chicken Little and proud of it.
I can't see US having a decent energy policy in the near or far future. So, as a mother of three just now getting into all of this, I am making major life changes and I doubt I'll regret it.
So there. I'll step down now.
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 8:17 am Post subject: Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’
More towards your point cestlavie. Last night CNN had a very interesting report on Brazil and their ethanol switch. The country no longer imports oil for motor fuel. Most cars run on an 80% eth. mix with some running 100% eth. Currently 80% of all car sales in Brazil are flex fuel. And they don't use corn...they use sugar cane which apprently has a yield 8X that of corn.
A great example of what can be accomplished.....OVER 30 YEARS. The gov't started pushing eth in 1975. A rough start as I recall...lots of engines damaged when they began the first substitutions. And now they are developing significant oil reserves in their Deep Water play. But they still have a way to go. They recently commisioned two LNG termals in Brazil. But for import...not export. Their economy is still short of energy in general.
And we're back to the same frustrating spot: IF..IF...IF...IF. All the things we could have done in the US to avoid a potentially devastating crash. If we had raised gasoline taxes like Carter proposed, If we had pused better CAFE standards. If more of the OCS had been opened up for more drfilling. If the gov't had started subsidizing alternatives.
All those efforts could be started tomorrow but I'm not sure we have the 15 to 20 years needed for those projects to begin having a significant impact. In the short term all I can see as a choice is a mandatory and significant conservation effort. Unfortunately I don't see any of the political leadership ready to fall on that sword.
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 9:39 am Post subject: Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’
So true yull. I figure our best bet would be to suddenly discover "weapons of mass destruction" in the Dominecan Republic and send the Marines in. Would be fair after all: the DR knock the bottom out of the sugar cane market for the farmers in S. Louisiana. Not many places north of Baton Rouge with enough water to grow cane...a rather thirsty little plant.
But seriously, much of the Carribean could become a major source of cane eth. Just takes $'s and farmers. Eth plants are relative cheap and quick to build.
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 9:45 pm Post subject: Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’
ROCKMAN wrote:
So true yull. I figure our best bet would be to suddenly discover "weapons of mass destruction" in the Dominecan Republic and send the Marines in. Would be fair after all: the DR knock the bottom out of the sugar cane market for the farmers in S. Louisiana. Not many places north of Baton Rouge with enough water to grow cane...a rather thirsty little plant.
But seriously, much of the Carribean could become a major source of cane eth. Just takes $'s and farmers. Eth plants are relative cheap and quick to build.
Global world oil demand graph shows demand increasing at a 45 degree angle. Also, the graph of the total number of cars in the world is increasing at 45 degrees. The world is adding 1 billion people every 11 years (parabolic over time). However, global oil production is now peaking. Global oil discoveries are decreasing (parabolically, I guess we are on the flat part of the curve...). The top 20 oil producing countries will have to increase production to make up for declines from the rest of the world (Otherwise will have declining world production). When you look at all these graphs AND the oil price over the last 5 years (parabolic increasing) its a mind opener. So I look from this perspective of peak oil and prepare accordingly.
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject: Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’
ROCKMAN wrote:
More towards your point cestlavie. Last night CNN had a very interesting report on Brazil and their ethanol switch. The country no longer imports oil for motor fuel.
More disinformation. Gives the impression that ethanol is more than it is.
It's not because of ethanol, but largely because of oil production increases in their own backyard tht imports have fallen.
"In 2006, Brazil produced 308,000 bbl/d of ethanol. Based on the August 2007 Short Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that Brazil’s ethanol production will reach 329,000 bbl/d in 2007 and 365,000 bbl/d in 2008."
Peanuts.
EIA wrote:
In 2006, Brazil produced 2.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, of which 77 percent was crude oil. Brazil’s oil production has risen steadily in recent years, with the country’s oil production in 2006 about 6 percent (or 130,000 bbl/d) higher than 2005. EIA estimates that Brazil’s oil consumption in 2006 averaged 2.3 million bbl/d. Based on its August 2007 Short Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts Brazilian oil production to reach 2.32 million bbl/d in 2007 and 2.64 million bbl/d in 2008. As a result of this rising oil production, EIA estimates that Brazil will become a net oil exporter by the end of 2007.
Quote:
Most cars run on an 80% eth. mix with some running 100% eth.
A great example of what can be accomplished.....OVER 30 YEARS.
Yeah....in a country with 190 millon people that only uses 10% of the oil we do (2.1 mbpd) and imports 1% (182,000 bpd) of the oil we do. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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