Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 6:45 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
allenwrench - Financial sense is a great website for info on what is happening to our economy. I also appreciate that when he's wrong he owns up to it unlike most financial commentators. No one can be right all the time. It will take some time to listen to some of the previous comments but it's all good. The first segment I listen to is the Big Picture... which, like it's title, present an overview of what's going on.
This site is terrific for pointers to other very interesting sites. Check out the oil drum, energy bulletin dot net, , electric politics, kunstler (of course), and for a view from down under from a former resident of the matrix, cryptogon dot com. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4867 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
allenwrench wrote:
Have to stay put and do the best you can or bug out and relocate?
Stay in the big city until the rural areas crash hard, once the onion peels all the way to the city, then move rural (long after they hit rock botttom).
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:12 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
mark wrote:
allenwrench - Financial sense is a great website for info on what is happening to our economy. I also appreciate that when he's wrong he owns up to it unlike most financial commentators. No one can be right all the time. It will take some time to listen to some of the previous comments but it's all good. The first segment I listen to is the Big Picture... which, like it's title, present an overview of what's going on.
This site is terrific for pointers to other very interesting sites. Check out the oil drum, energy bulletin dot net, , electric politics, kunstler (of course), and for a view from down under from a former resident of the matrix, cryptogon dot com.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:19 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
Kristen wrote:
Allen, I think the signs are there, people aren't ready to admit it. Take my mom for example, I was worried back in 2005 about this and she told me to stop being such a worry wort. As the years have progressed she just seems mad at me about it, especially when I bring it up. Way to be the bearer of bad news, I guess. I think also its because i have a little sister that's 12. Having kids must make it a lot worse because no one wants there kids to be worse off.
All type of people in the world. Instead of thanking us, some hate us for broadcasting truth.
I've talked with few survivalists that have admitted it is hard getting their family on the preparedness bandwagon. That is somewhat that case with my family.
One problem I have is my wife especially likes to hide her head in the sand - she says it is depressing and will not even sit down to study any of the background material such as 'peak oil' 'peak NG' peak food' etc to develop a realization that there is a need for preparedness.
Acceptance of change is a signpost of which way a person is pointed with their ability to accept or deny truth. Does a person embrace truth and change for the better or rebel and hide from change?
Sometimes this resistance to change is ego based, other times it is fear based, but whatever the reason the choice remains the same. We can stay with the status-quo if we are happy with things as is. Or, we can work to change things in a direction we perceive to be a healthier and produce a better life for us.
The seeds of change all start with recognition that something is wrong, but without this recognition no change can come about. Desire must come from within, you cannot force someone to change, they must change themselves.
But, before a desire to change can be manifested, one must come to a "realization" that a change needs to occur in ones life.
I've talked about PO to other forums like kayakers, mountain bikers and backpackers most of just blow me away and make jokes about it.
Other forums like the RV crowd say I am an alarmist. A political forum said it was propaganda and banned me.
For the sake of our inner peace we must accept our job is to just plant the seeds...but we cannot force them to sprout.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:27 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
vetusfirma wrote:
Just a couple of points. First, I have never heard of a 'riot' in the country. I have heard of vigilantes in rural areas burning out hobo jungles and squatters (stories from my grandmother).
The way I introduce people to PO is to give them a copy of the history channel show. Some how, even though some of the stuff they show is silly, it makes it ok for people to believe, because its on TV. Plus they don't get mad at you for telling them and tell the whole town your a nut.
Just thought I'd share.
"Oil Apocalypse" show?
Yes, it was a good intro.
Although it confuses some people with its statement that oil will be around for a few hundred years.
I have to add to that show...
"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan
I just print people out this list and let them research it as they wish.
A Thousand Barrels a Second: the coming oil break point and the challenges facing an energy dependent world
by Tertzakian, Peter
Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
by Simmons, Matthew R.
Well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:39 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
jupiters_release wrote:
allenwrench wrote:
xerces wrote:
I intentionally moved INTO the middle of NYC over a year ago. As I see it, major cities will be the last place where utilities and supplies are allowed to run out. So far it's worked out pretty well for me.
I have cut my electricity usage by 80%, gas usage by 99%. My gross annual income has tripled in the last 2 years, and I finally got my own urban permaculture side-business running.
Interesting direction...going into the eye of the storm so to speak.
I talked with a guy from NY that was big on permaculure. He had a group he was member to that would pool money and buy preps each month. Is permaculture and PO preps taking off in NY? Do you pan on sticking it out in the big city? What would cause you to move out?
<<<<< Permaculture in Manhattan >>>>>
I still can't believe anyone can say that with a straight face. Two million people on a tiny island surrounded by boroughs with six million more people. No disrespect Xerces but sustainability requires a lot more common sense than that.
The guy I talked with said his group had some land he could squat in NYC or wherever. No, he didn't mean out in the country, he was talking at most adjacent and connected to the big city. Don't remember if it was a little island or what. I also recall he was into foraging.
My first thought was even if he succeeded in growing stuff, the crowds may steal his food. Maybe some permaculture devotees are thinking roof top gardens? He didn't seem to be into defense weapons either. Nothing to protect his food production...as if one can shoot fast enough to battle all of NYC coming after you.
BTW, What's the difference between permaculture and just growing food. Is permaculture organic or self sufficient?
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:44 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
skeptik wrote:
kakkerlak wrote:
Hi,
I am VERY interested in ideas on how to prepare in the city and how to do that with a limited amount of money.
Teach yourself a useful post-peak skill. In Amsterdam the obvious one to go for is bicycle repair. As you can afford to, gradually acquire all the tools that are needed for bicycle repair. You need somewhere secure to store them, as they will at some point become very attractive to theft.
Go for hand powered tools rather than electricity powered - eg a good old fashioned hand drill rather than a Black & Decker - or if you can afford to, get both.
Anybody with the tools & skill to keep old kit working will be in high demand in the post peak world. People will be more inclined to 'mend and make do' as they were in the post WW2 'austerity' period in the UK. Old had to be fixed because we couldn't afford new.
Good advice.
I just bought some hand tools myself. Never thought about it until recently. Miller Falls used to make good eggbeater drills. I had to pay about $50 for a like new one. Also have saws, planes, bit and brace, etc.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:47 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
alokin wrote:
First of all there is a big difference between a European city like Amsterdam and an American city (which I personally don't know, but I suppose it's far more stretched out like in Australia) I cannot imagine permaculture in Manhattan, at least not for more than a tiny fraction of the inhabitants, because it's much too dense, nor for Amsterdam.
We live in Brisbane, and here the situation is different because most people have backyards and can produce at least a fraction of the food.
Our yard is densely planted but if we, as a family, would have to live from that, we would starve.
I think for those who must live in big cities, they should consider if there is a possibility moving to a smaller one.
If you are young and have no kids you are more flexible. You could maybe spend your holidays on farms (WWOOFING) working as a farm hand, so at least if the hell breaks loose you would have ties to the countryside.
I personally would prefer moving to the country. But not only young people have limited finances and we need our income as well as my husband loves his science.
Amsterdam is not a good place to be as it will be under water soon.
How big is your garden? How many people have to be fed from it?
What size garden would you need to be less prone to starve?
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:51 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
SoothSayer wrote:
allenwrench wrote:
SoothSayer wrote:
Bugged out to a rural village, changed career and bought 5 acres of (sadly low-grade) land.
The key point is that all this takes YEARS not weeks to carry out ... unless you are rich I suppose.
Well, your already out it seems. So at least your big city worries are behind you. Good point about planning ahead and not rushing.
What's wrong with the land? How could you have avoided the problems you experienced?
The land is heavy clay ... not easy to work!
Land is hard enough to find in the UK anyway ... so if you haven't got much money you need to grab what's available.
A 60-acre farm was sold about a mile away recently ... they got around $26,000 an acre!
If re-running history, we would have saved more in order to find a better place ... but we only realised the severity of PO and other global problems recently, which didn't give much time to save!
This guy said he had large amounts topsoil trucked in to fix his poor soil issues.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 8:03 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
kakkerlak wrote:
allenwrench wrote:
How is your part of Europe for post carbon living versus the US? What are some of your concerns?
I don't think much about the situation after the collapse (or whatever it's called) and surviving the next 25 year is my first priority. Whatever may happen after this period of time is beyond my intellectual and financial abilities at the moment.
Using this timeframe to answer the question;
I think The Netherlands (and neighbours) is not a really bad place to be when things start to go wrong. The first positive thing to note is that riots or other violence will be much less then in the USA. Guns are not a birthright in this country and only the police is armed and trained in using those weapons (this could become a problem in the future).
Natural disasters are not a problem either. The big environmental problems around here are mostly overpopulation and pollution (people and cows are reduced to 'environment' in my mind). I do not think that food will become a big problem any time soon, but clean drinking water may become problematic because of pollution.
My preparations are based on one line of though. As long as i'm alive, free and healthy i can handle everything that is thrown at me. The only thing capable to destroy my live, take my freedom and destroy my health is a pandemic. So, my focus is on preparing for a pandemic or any other health related problem that could kill or disable me in a short time.
My main plan is to get as much skills and knowledge as possible and i hope to store enough stuff to survive a year in total isolation. For the long term i am dependant on seeds and knowledge i do not currently have, but that's only important if i'm not dead.
My second biggest concern is paying the rent during a crisis. Especially during a pandemic it is not smart to go to work and risk dead for some stupid money.
It's my dream to have a little farm. Too bad it's not possible.
alokin wrote:
I cannot imagine permaculture in Manhattan, at least not for more than a tiny fraction of the inhabitants, because it's much too dense, nor for Amsterdam.
Actually, most old buildings in the centre of Amsterdam are placed in such a way that it is possible to have a large garden between them. As a bonus this open space is only accessible by people who live in those buildings.
Trust me on this, Amsterdam (the center) is one of the best designed city's in the world and is perfect for permaculture. I think that if necessary Amsterdam can sustain itself completely partly; it's like having built-in rural areas in the middle of the city. It's a brilliant city design. However, i suggest to demolish all buildings newer then 100 years.
Have fun!
Roach
Thanks for the rundown. I see you have been giving it some thought.
But I must ask where are the other city dwellers in the thread.
Our forum membership can't all be rural inhabitants and we must have more city dwellers than the few that have chimed in.
If you lurker city dwellers can't even articulate your concerns, how you going to survive when things get tough?
A couple more books for you tounge tied urbanites.
One other point; none of us will be ultimate survivors, we all have to die one day. But the successful survivor extends his or her life beyond an earlier death...a death that was caused by ignorance of how to make that life last longer.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
I still don't get how city people think they will do better when TSHTF?? The homelees poeple are going to flock they by the thousands. Especially if the electricity is on more regular in the city than other places.
So city folks with NO survival skills will be competing against hunry homeless crackheads. I know who's gonna win that fight DUH
As far as thinking the power will stay on longer in the city. YOU ARE DREAMING. Have you heard the saying,, If I can't have it no one can..
One carefully placed bullet from a pissed off person and lights out
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
I don't think there will be a single event where people suddenly drop what they are doing and become homeless. Even the great depression didn't resemble that.
The city allows people to have an ever decreasing standard of living rather than all out homelessness in the energy decline scenario.
So for example, within NYC, there are people who are living 8 to a room. I have seen people who basically survive on rice and beans while working menial service jobs. Even the poorest people can feed and shelter themselves by collecting garbage around the city and hauling them to recycling centers. Of 15 million people in the NYC metro region, there are only about 10,000 real homeless people.
As our economy continues to decline, I expect to see increasing numbers of people to come into the city from the countryside. I expect that the standard of living will decrease dramatically. But most of all, I expect the relative cost of human labor and services to drop dramatically. This is because people will generally do anything to avoid homelessness. In 3rd world cities like Bombay, a middle to upper middle class family can employ 4 or 5 servants(who lives in ghettos/slums) on a permanant basis. NYC may well become like that within the next 10-15 years.
As for violence, last summer there was a blackout in the Upper East Side where I reside. Within half an hour, there were like a thousand cops on the spot. So if you're in a safe neighborhood, police protection is quite adequate.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
xerces wrote:
I don't think there will be a single event where people suddenly drop what they are doing and become homeless. Even the great depression didn't resemble that.
The city allows people to have an ever decreasing standard of living rather than all out homelessness in the energy decline scenario.
So for example, within NYC, there are people who are living 8 to a room. I have seen people who basically survive on rice and beans while working menial service jobs. Even the poorest people can feed and shelter themselves by collecting garbage around the city and hauling them to recycling centers. Of 15 million people in the NYC metro region, there are only about 10,000 real homeless people.
As our economy continues to decline, I expect to see increasing numbers of people to come into the city from the countryside. I expect that the standard of living will decrease dramatically. But most of all, I expect the relative cost of human labor and services to drop dramatically. This is because people will generally do anything to avoid homelessness. In 3rd world cities like Bombay, a middle to upper middle class family can employ 4 or 5 servants(who lives in ghettos/slums) on a permanant basis. NYC may well become like that within the next 10-15 years.
As for violence, last summer there was a blackout in the Upper East Side where I reside. Within half an hour, there were like a thousand cops on the spot. So if you're in a safe neighborhood, police protection is quite adequate.
The benefit of living here, imho, is access to jobs, technology, utilities, police protection, and the ever increasing pool of cheap labor.
Your lack of compassion is directly proportional to your level of awareness, not that either is your fault albeit a misrepresentation of anything remotely related to permaculture.
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
We cannot all buy land and we have to live in cities because there is just not sufficient land to buy for everyone and most of us haven't jsut the money on the bank buying some land - and then - you must have some cash.
Here the gardens are usually big, ours is small we have 400 m˛, but with house and everything. I planted some fruit trees, we have five chickens, could stock up, and the rest I dug up. the fruit trees are too young to bear but our veggie plot feeds four of us year round with veggies and could be managed more intensively that we would have our potatoes maybe. We can plant year round.
I think the size you need for feeding a family is one acre (but you have to buy feed for animals).
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13185 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
alokin wrote:
I think the size you need for feeding a family is one acre (but you have to buy feed for animals).
Under the right conditions it can be less, as little as 1000 square feet per person for a vegan diet, plus additional land to grow compost crops, for a total of about 4000 square feet per person. Small animals such as chickens and especially rabbits don't need additional land for feed, they can eat weeds and scraps. If neighbors pool land and resources, a few dairy goats could possibly be raised without much additional land for feed.
Reference: One Circle _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
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