Runaway Global Warming - Closer that you think

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 792

here's the link to the article:
spiegel (in German)
they tell that the activities should increase, but htey don't.

dissident · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 419

So we are at peak cosmic ray irradiation now since sunspots are indicators of the intensity of the solar magnetic field and it is at a minimum now thereby deflecting less of the high energy cosmic particle rays. This means we should be having extra cloud to reflect the sunlight back to space and save us from warming! In the real world this is a small effect that is crushed by the elephant in the middle of the room called CO2. It is rather amusing how people make statistically insignificant attributions to solar activity. We need more than one or two coincidences of global cooling with solar activity to start talking about causality. There is enough dynamical variability in the system that the "mini ice age" could have little to do with solar output.

Solar irradiance decreased 0.19% during the Maunder minimum. This is not even twice the variation during each 11 year solar cycle. We are blessed with a stable star and would not want to live near one that varied as much as required to explain away global warming by irradiance alone. We probably wouldn't have come into existence in the first place.

errorist · Tar Sands Joined: May 28, 2008 Posts: 51

Anybody remembers this?

Gamma ray burst in 2003

Cid_Yama

Any thoughts about that?

And within 24 hours, a first, very detailed spectrum of this new object was obtained by the UVES high-dispersion spectrograph on the 8.2-m VLT KUEYEN telescope at the ESO Paranal Observatory (Chile). It allowed to determine the distance as about 2,650 million light-years (redshift 0.1685).

You seriously lack an understanding of what you've taken on to discuss.
_________________
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

errorist · Tar Sands Joined: May 28, 2008 Posts: 51

Not in the face, please Smile

"The optical brightness of this gamma ray burst is about 100 times more intense than anything we've ever seen before.

I am familar with the concept of light-years. Just wondering about strange northern lights and amount of energy reaching solar system from that burst.

dissident · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 419

Very high energy particles penetrate deep into the atmosphere before they cause ionization. The regular galactic cosmic ray flux is not very intense so the ionization rate is hundreds of times weaker than for the aurora. The aurora is caused by relatively low energy solar wind electrons and protons ionizing the air primarily above 80 km. The auroral oval depends on the intensity of the magnetic storm and can occasionally occur equatorward of 60 degrees. It is the resulting oxygen and nitrogen ions that give the color light show.

Unlike the high energy nucleons that penetrate to the upper troposphere, gamma rays will interact with the atmosphere at higher altitudes. Depending on the flux you will get some atmospheric glow. But for the gamma ray burst of March 29, 2003 it was way too far away to have produced enough flux to light up the sky. There was no high energy solar coronal mass ejection event on this date (but there were later in the year, especially in late October and early November, the biggest since 1989). It was probably just an intense geomagnetic storm with a low latitude aurora.

Cid_Yama

The rate of climate warming over northern Alaska, Canada, and Russia could more than triple during periods of rapid sea ice loss, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The findings raise concerns about the thawing of permafrost, or permanently frozen soil, and the potential consequences for sensitive ecosystems, human infrastructure, and the release of additional greenhouse gases.

The team found that during episodes of rapid sea-ice loss, the rate of Arctic land warming is 3.5 times greater than the average 21st century warming rates predicted in global climate models. While this warming is largest over the ocean, the simulations suggest that it can penetrate as far as 900 miles inland. The simulations also indicate that the warming acceleration during such events is especially pronounced in autumn. The decade during which a rapid sea-ice loss event occurs could see autumn temperatures warm by as much as 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) along the Arctic coasts of Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

Lawrence and his colleagues then used the model to study the influence of accelerated warming on permafrost and found that in areas where permafrost is already at risk, such as central Alaska, a period of abrupt sea-ice loss could lead to rapid soil thaw. This situation, when summer thaw extends more deeply than the next winter’s freeze, can lead to a talik, which is a layer of permanently unfrozen soil sandwiched between the seasonally frozen layer above and the perennially frozen layer below. A talik allows heat to build more quickly in the soil, hastening the long-term thaw of permafrost.

link
_________________
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

Cid_Yama

Earth is already as warm as at any time in the last 10,000 years, and is within 1 °C of being its hottest for a million years.

link
_________________
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

dissident · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 419

Warming -> insects -> forest death -> fires -> CO2. I bet none of the denialist drones could even imagine this feedback. It is happening in Canada as well.

Cid_Yama

"We are expecting the Arctic to warm faster than the rest of the world, and this suggests that in relatively short, 5-10 year periods that rate of warming can really go up," says David Lawrence, lead author of the study conducted at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research.

"It means we might get a big part of the temperature change within the next decade or two, rather than later," Lawrence said in an interview. "There could be jumps."

link
_________________
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

Cid_Yama

Ocean temperatures and sea level increases 50 percent higher than previously estimated

The results are reported in the June 19 edition of the journal Nature. An international team of researchers, including Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientist Peter Gleckler, compared climate models with improved observations that show sea levels rose by 1.5 millimeters per year in the period from 1961-2003. That equates to an approximately 2½-inch increase in ocean levels in a 42-year span.

The ocean warming and thermal expansion rates are more than 50 percent larger than previous estimates for the upper 300 meters of oceans.

The research corrected for small but systematic biases recently discovered in the global ocean observing system, and uses statistical techniques that “infill” information in data-sparse regions. The results increase scientists’ confidence in ocean observations and further demonstrate that climate models simulate ocean temperature variability more realistically than previously thought.

“This is important for the climate modeling community because it demonstrates that the climate models used for assessing sea-level rise and ocean warming tie in closely with the observed results,” Gleckler said.

Although observations and models confirm that recent warming is greatest in the upper ocean, there are widespread observations of warming deeper than 700 meters.

Results were compared with recent estimates of other contributions to sea-level rise including glaciers, ice caps, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and thermal expansion changes in the deep ocean. When these independent lines of evidence are examined collectively, the story is more consistent than found in earlier studies.

The oceans store more than 90 percent of the heat in the Earth’s climate system and act as a temporary buffer against the effects of climate change. The ocean warming and thermal expansion rates are 50 percent larger than previous estimates for the upper 700 meters of oceans, and greater than that for the upper 300 meters.

http://www.physorg.com/news133019164.html
_________________
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

albente · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 20, 2004 Posts: 1356

Cid_Yama

Fuel companies have committed 'Crimes Against Humanity'

James Hansen, the leading climate change scientist who made a ground-breaking speech about global warming exactly 20 years ago, will today reprise his seminal address when he calls for fuel companies to be tried for crimes against humanity.

Dr Hansen, who is head of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, will accuse the heads of companies such as oil giant ExxonMobil and coal producer Peabody Energy of actively spreading disinformation about climate change.

"When you are in that kind of position, as the CEO of one the primary players who have been putting out misinformation even via organisations that affect what gets into school textbooks, then that's a crime," he said in an interview with the Guardian.

link
_________________
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

AgentR

Ferretlover

NASA warming scientist: 'This is the last chance'
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer Mon Jun 23, 7:58 PM ET
WASHINGTON - Exactly 20 years after warning America about global warming, a top NASA scientist said the situation has gotten so bad that the world's only hope is drastic action.
James Hansen told Congress on Monday that the world has long passed the "dangerous level" for greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and needs to get back to 1988 levels. He said Earth's atmosphere can only stay this loaded with man-made carbon dioxide for a couple more decades without changes such as mass extinction, ecosystem collapse and dramatic sea level rises.
"We're toast if we don't get on a very different path," Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences who is sometimes called the godfather of global warming science, told The Associated Press. "This is the last chance." …
"We're toast."
_________________
"RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto