Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak wrote:
Yes. that is 45% altogther.
Hyperinflation is here but wages won't keep up.
The economy then goes downhill from here.
Isn't that hyperstagflation? _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3980 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Hyperstagflation was my call it makes the most sense. Oil causing ever increasing prices, but because oil is needed to fuel economic activity we will see a reduction in growth. The worst of both worlds.
"Rio Tinto, the world's second-largest mining company, said yesterday that it had agreed an 85 per cent increase in the price of its iron ore - the key raw material for making steel.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:59 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Eli wrote:
Hyperstagflation was my call it makes the most sense. Oil causing ever increasing prices, but because oil is needed to fuel economic activity we will see a reduction in growth. The worst of both worlds.
That is a good way to put it.
Since income levels won't keep, I expect intense demands on the government for rebates, tax cuts, etc. to replace spending power. This won't stop the fall in the economy but will feed inflation. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Mar 09, 2007 Posts: 226 Location: No. Calif.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
roccman wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
Yes. that is 45% altogther.
Hyperinflation is here but wages won't keep up.
The economy then goes downhill from here.
Isn't that hyperstagflation?
Putting this into the political terms I am so confortable with: So this will be like the economy of Pres. Jimmy Carter (interest rates much higher than growth, although I think the war economy of Nixon should get the blame) X the economy of George H. Bush (It's the economy stupid), all to the power of the stupidity of George W. Bush X the greed of Alan Greenspan. Wow!
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:31 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Eli wrote:
Hyperstagflation was my call it makes the most sense. Oil causing ever increasing prices, but because oil is needed to fuel economic activity we will see a reduction in growth. The worst of both worlds.
Yep - mine too.
Enjoy the 70s...with a dash of climate change, die off, and new planets!!!
Hey Aaron - when do you start handing out "prophet" tags...? _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
So where does this leave us? In Dude, We Are So Doomed, I noted the intersection of four long-term cycles (waves), which suggest that the era from the present (2008) to 2021 will be troubled indeed, and may result in a war, revolution or equivalent re-ordering of U.S. society and perhaps the world.
It doesn't take much thought to anticipate the post-cheap-petroleum era might be fraught with risk and turmoil as the transition--messy and unpredictable in some ways, but predictably messy in any event--takes place. Based on the history so painstakingly asembled by Fischer, we can anticipate:
Ever higher prices for what I call the FEW Essentials: food, energy and water.
Ever larger government deficits which end in bankruptcy/repudiation of debts/new issue of currency.
Rising property/violent crime and illegitimacy.
Rising interest rates (by a lot, not a little).
Rising income inequality in favor of capital over labor.
Continued debasement of the currency.
Rising volatility of prices.
Rising political unrest and turmoil (see "Revolution").
We'll continue examining these all-important issues in this "Survival +" themed week. Survival + what? We shall see....
_________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:58 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Communities suffer as foreclosure rate rises
Gut Check: Readers report lonely streets, rundown homes, service cutbacks
>snip<
As mortgage defaults and foreclosures continue to rise, the impact is spreading well beyond those who are losing their homes.
In communities across the country, msnbc.com readers report that local governments are coping with shrinking tax rolls, lenders are saddled with more foreclosed homes than they can sell and empty homes in many neighborhoods are being vandalized.
Like everything associated with the nation's housing crisis, the fallout from foreclosures is very local, a fact confirmed by hundreds of e-mails from readers in msnbc.com's Gut Check America. Some regions appear to have escaped relatively unscathed. But in hard-hit states like California, Arizona and Florida, readers report that some neighborhoods are becoming virtual ghost towns.
Link to Full Story _________________ Live simply, love generously, care deeply, and speak kindly.
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass;
It's about learning how to dance in the rain.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:21 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
ColossalContrarian wrote:
roccman wrote:
Hey Aaron - when do you start handing out "prophet" tags...?
Everyone loves your posts rocc but how many times have you proclaimed a collapse "tomorrow" or "next week" or "over the coming summer" and been wrong.
Yes, you'll eventually be right but does that make you a profit?
I'm just say'n...
In the five ring is prophet status.
Hubbert was a prophet - although a few years off.
Agreed? _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly sharply in June, sinking to its lowest level in more than 16 years, according to a private industry group.
The report Tuesday also said the group's reading of consumers' expectations hit an all-time low as home prices tumbled while gasoline and food prices rose. A separate index of home prices saw the largest drop since its inception in 2000. The news sent stocks lower in morning trading.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 this month, the lowest since February 1992. The index dropped from from 58.1 in May, a much steeper decline than economists expected. The consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR was 56.5 for June.
Inflation, political flux and job insecurity have created an "uncertainty more acute, perhaps, than any time since 9-11," said William Hummer, chief economist at Wayne Hummer Investments.
"I don't think this can be purged immediately by an election or anything else," he said. "I think it's endemic, deep-rooted and likely to persist."
The reading, based on a survey of 5,000 representative U.S. households, suggests "the economy remains stuck in low gear," said Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's director of consumer research.
Separately, prices in all 20 cities tracked by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index posted annual declines, hitting levels not seen since August 2004. The narrower 10-city index declined 16.3 percent in April, the largest decline in its more than two-decade history.
Stocks fell in morning trading on the data, as well as a profit warning from shipper UPS Inc., which said an "anemic" economy and high fuel costs had led to a decline in package volume.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 85.82, or 0.72 percent, at 11,756.54 in morning trading. The Standard & Poor's 500 was down 9.75, or 0.74 percent, at 1,308.25 and the Nasdaq composite was down 30.25, or 1.27 percent, at 2,355.49
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:42 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
I'd have to agree that at least personally, some kind of psychological "malaise" has set in. Previously news like this has left me thinking "oh, they'll just cut rates again or something and keep the show going for a while longer." I read this article and that went off in my head but this time I also thought "it doesn't make any difference." I think, at least personally, my "consumer confidence" is completely shot.
U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly sharply in June, sinking to its lowest level in more than 16 years, according to a private industry group.
...
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 85.82, or 0.72 percent, at 11,756.54 in morning trading. The Standard & Poor's 500 was down 9.75, or 0.74 percent, at 1,308.25 and the Nasdaq composite was down 30.25, or 1.27 percent, at 2,355.49
Last edited by jbrovont on Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:58 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
I don't see fed lowering rates, but I DO see govt intervention in the oil and energy futures market, as it tries to deal with loss of confidence and a Dow going into decline. They've allowed the investment banks to make up for some of their subprime losses, but if they see real economic chaos, resulting in tremendous social problems, they will have to reign in the speculative excess. Oil per barrel could easily drop just below 100.00 per barrel. Just a thought.
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