Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:54 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
jupiters_release wrote:
xerces wrote:
I don't think there will be a single event where people suddenly drop what they are doing and become homeless. Even the great depression didn't resemble that.
The city allows people to have an ever decreasing standard of living rather than all out homelessness in the energy decline scenario.
So for example, within NYC, there are people who are living 8 to a room. I have seen people who basically survive on rice and beans while working menial service jobs. Even the poorest people can feed and shelter themselves by collecting garbage around the city and hauling them to recycling centers. Of 15 million people in the NYC metro region, there are only about 10,000 real homeless people.
As our economy continues to decline, I expect to see increasing numbers of people to come into the city from the countryside. I expect that the standard of living will decrease dramatically. But most of all, I expect the relative cost of human labor and services to drop dramatically. This is because people will generally do anything to avoid homelessness. In 3rd world cities like Bombay, a middle to upper middle class family can employ 4 or 5 servants(who lives in ghettos/slums) on a permanant basis. NYC may well become like that within the next 10-15 years.
As for violence, last summer there was a blackout in the Upper East Side where I reside. Within half an hour, there were like a thousand cops on the spot. So if you're in a safe neighborhood, police protection is quite adequate.
The benefit of living here, imho, is access to jobs, technology, utilities, police protection, and the ever increasing pool of cheap labor.
Your lack of compassion is directly proportional to your level of awareness, not that either is your fault albeit a misrepresentation of anything remotely related to permaculture.
On the contrary, helping people become more self-sufficient is one of the core drivers of my permaculture business efforts. We have given FREE gardening classes, permaculture workshops, and movie showings to several THOUSAND NYC residents by now. Ultimately, living in megacities is one of the paths for us to get through this resource bottleneck with our civilization intact. It is currently the most energy efficient way to provide people with employment, food, and necessary services.
You question my level of compassion for people while failing to consider alternative scenarios. A low paying job in the city at least provides a minimum standard of living for people. It will be a much poorer lifestyle(maybe even 3rd world) but at least it's a living. We have to come to terms with the fact that most people are not currently equipped(physically, mentally, emotionally) to survive without access to jobs and utilities.
In the alternative scenario where people stay put in the surrounding countryside/suburbs, there would be much more severe unemployment, lack of basic services, and even food shortages which would cause much more human suffering. So I'm simply picking the lesser of two evils here. _________________ http://backtowilderness.blogspot.com http://grown-up-permaculture.com
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4590 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:05 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
xerces wrote:
It is currently the most energy efficient way to provide people with employment, food, and necessary services.
I guess everyone planning to build homesteads are wasting their time if the food will just magically keep flowing into the city. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:11 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
xerces wrote:
jupiters_release wrote:
xerces wrote:
I don't think there will be a single event where people suddenly drop what they are doing and become homeless. Even the great depression didn't resemble that.
The city allows people to have an ever decreasing standard of living rather than all out homelessness in the energy decline scenario.
So for example, within NYC, there are people who are living 8 to a room. I have seen people who basically survive on rice and beans while working menial service jobs. Even the poorest people can feed and shelter themselves by collecting garbage around the city and hauling them to recycling centers. Of 15 million people in the NYC metro region, there are only about 10,000 real homeless people.
As our economy continues to decline, I expect to see increasing numbers of people to come into the city from the countryside. I expect that the standard of living will decrease dramatically. But most of all, I expect the relative cost of human labor and services to drop dramatically. This is because people will generally do anything to avoid homelessness. In 3rd world cities like Bombay, a middle to upper middle class family can employ 4 or 5 servants(who lives in ghettos/slums) on a permanant basis. NYC may well become like that within the next 10-15 years.
As for violence, last summer there was a blackout in the Upper East Side where I reside. Within half an hour, there were like a thousand cops on the spot. So if you're in a safe neighborhood, police protection is quite adequate.
The benefit of living here, imho, is access to jobs, technology, utilities, police protection, and the ever increasing pool of cheap labor.
Your lack of compassion is directly proportional to your level of awareness, not that either is your fault albeit a misrepresentation of anything remotely related to permaculture.
On the contrary, helping people become more self-sufficient is one of the core drivers of my permaculture business efforts. We have given FREE gardening classes, permaculture workshops, and movie showings to several THOUSAND NYC residents by now. Ultimately, living in megacities is one of the paths for us to get through this resource bottleneck with our civilization intact. It is currently the most energy efficient way to provide people with employment, food, and necessary services.
You question my level of compassion for people while failing to consider alternative scenarios. A low paying job in the city at least provides a minimum standard of living for people. It will be a much poorer lifestyle(maybe even 3rd world) but at least it's a living. We have to come to terms with the fact that most people are not currently equipped(physically, mentally, emotionally) to survive without access to jobs and utilities.
In the alternative scenario where people stay put in the surrounding countryside/suburbs, there would be much more severe unemployment, lack of basic services, and even food shortages which would cause much more human suffering. So I'm simply picking the lesser of two evils here.
Manhattan is too important to have food shortages!
Cornucopian gmo-proponent NYC permaculturalist. Absurdity all around, congrats.
Joined: May 28, 2008 Posts: 109 Location: Old Dominion
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:39 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
Having to live in a large city due to financial reasons or personal needs is one thing, but to relocate INTO a big city in preparation for a societal collapse goes against all logic...sorry.
If you currently enjoy the conveniances of living in a large city, and allow that to convince you to stay, please remember...those conveniances will most likely not survive long after post-oil. Human nature (or at least the worst of it) will survive and thrive. The strong will prey on the weak. The strong will begin taking what they want from those that have it.
In fact, most likely it will be the large cities who feel any breakdown first, and more severe, than the rural areas. Remember, due to "just in time" delivery of essential goods and services, cities normally never have more than three days food in inventory! Good luck. _________________ "If everything is going well, you obviously overlooked something."
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13186 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
ORCA wrote:
In fact, most likely it will be the large cities who feel any breakdown first, and more severe, than the rural areas. Remember, due to "just in time" delivery of essential goods and services, cities normally never have more than three days food in inventory! Good luck.
Do you feel deliveries to remote, low population areas are really more likely than deliveries to large cities?
Or are you under the impression that rural dwellers don't need to buy things at the store? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1497 Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 12:04 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
alokin wrote:
I cannot imagine permaculture in Manhattan, at least not for more than a tiny fraction of the inhabitants, because it's much too dense, nor for Amsterdam.
While not a solution for full self-sufficiency, balcony gardens can be layered to be highly productive for the area they have.
Joined: May 28, 2008 Posts: 109 Location: Old Dominion
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
Ludi wrote:
ORCA wrote:
In fact, most likely it will be the large cities who feel any breakdown first, and more severe, than the rural areas. Remember, due to "just in time" delivery of essential goods and services, cities normally never have more than three days food in inventory! Good luck.
Do you feel deliveries to remote, low population areas are really more likely than deliveries to large cities?
Or are you under the impression that rural dwellers don't need to buy things at the store?
No. On the contrary, I think large cities would be the focus for delivery of critical supplies. However, historically (other than the Berlin airlift), resuppling large population areas has been less than remarkable in reaching its goal.
The large number (maybe millions) of people is the risk factor. Criminals and organized gangs will be highly active and take advantage of anyone appearing to be weak and unable to defend themselves.
If the distribution network is disrupted, how successful does anyone think FEMA would be in providing relief to 5000 cities nationwide?
Having delt with emergency incidents for over thirty years, it would be total chaos within five to seven days once residents find out they are not receiving help fast enough. Panic would set in very quickly.(Don't forget, this relief will have to be continous day after day) Awful things happen in environments like this!
Don't misunderstand, it will be very harsh for everyone, even those who evacuated the urban areas years ago. Its just that they would not have to directly deal with that criminal element or the paniced hordes, which gives them a lot more buffer and time to figure things out.
Anyway, that would be my worry regarding residing within a metro area. _________________ "If everything is going well, you obviously overlooked something."
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13186 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
ORCA wrote:
Don't misunderstand, it will be very harsh for everyone, even those who evacuated the urban areas years ago. Its just that they would not have to directly deal with that criminal element or the paniced hordes, which gives them a lot more buffer and time to figure things out.
Anyway, that would be my worry regarding residing within a metro area.
I agree 100%. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 5:16 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
skyemore, this is simply illusion! Yes, every bit counts, but we live on 400 m˛ of land, house and everything included, I dug up everything but i know, vertically or not, without delivery we're starving.
The problem is: your veggie garden can give you most of what you need of vitamins minerals etc.. But you need carbohydrates fat and protein as well. You chicken only give meat and egg if you feed them and this you have to buy in a big city. We can grow spuds but not enough to have all carbohydrates we need. Even though we're fortunate and be able to grow year round. and we can grow other starchy things like yucca or yams. there are some gardening books and I read it in a permaculture book as well that you can feed a person on very little space, but my little experience in gardening tells me that this is not true.
Many of these gardening tecniques have a lot of input of materials as well, for example I buy mulching materila, sugar cane mulch. If there is no oil the mulch simply does not come here, even if sugar cane farms are close by. Especially these no dig methods rely on heaps of bought materials.
I lived long times in real cities in Europe with balcony were I always grew some herbs, but for me it was clear that, if I would try to plant my salad there the balcony would break down. The herbs was all I could plant. We even produced the compost ourselves.
Joined: Jan 18, 2008 Posts: 89 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 5:38 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
Many useful books are around, but i do not really have the money to buy 'em all.For this i need a "buy these books or you're stupid list" in order to know how to spend my money wisely.
Idea 1:
My room is about 9 metres long and 4 metres wide and my toilet/shower is 1.80 by 0.80 metres. This may sound sad, but actually it's a smart decision; I only have to pay 150 Euro rent a month and this is cheap considering the location.
The only problem is storage space, but that can be fixed by realising that a room has 3 dimensions (length, width and height). Living in a small space is not only a good way to save money, it also allows you to easily pay the rent an entire year in advance. And that is very useful in a crisis situation.
Idea 2:
Because i do not have a garden or access to direct sunlight it's not possible to grow some nice vegetables. As a solution i'm learning about sprouts to have at least a little bit of green around. Can this be considered a "food production" skill?
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
ORCA wrote:
Ludi wrote:
ORCA wrote:
In fact, most likely it will be the large cities who feel any breakdown first, and more severe, than the rural areas. Remember, due to "just in time" delivery of essential goods and services, cities normally never have more than three days food in inventory! Good luck.
Do you feel deliveries to remote, low population areas are really more likely than deliveries to large cities?
Or are you under the impression that rural dwellers don't need to buy things at the store?
No. On the contrary, I think large cities would be the focus for delivery of critical supplies. However, historically (other than the Berlin airlift), resuppling large population areas has been less than remarkable in reaching its goal.
The large number (maybe millions) of people is the risk factor. Criminals and organized gangs will be highly active and take advantage of anyone appearing to be weak and unable to defend themselves.
If the distribution network is disrupted, how successful does anyone think FEMA would be in providing relief to 5000 cities nationwide?
Having delt with emergency incidents for over thirty years, it would be total chaos within five to seven days once residents find out they are not receiving help fast enough. Panic would set in very quickly.(Don't forget, this relief will have to be continous day after day) Awful things happen in environments like this!
Don't misunderstand, it will be very harsh for everyone, even those who evacuated the urban areas years ago. Its just that they would not have to directly deal with that criminal element or the paniced hordes, which gives them a lot more buffer and time to figure things out.
Anyway, that would be my worry regarding residing within a metro area.
Well, this is true in my limited experience. In my local the squeaky wheel gets the grease and the rural people are the last on the list when utilities are out or there is an emergency.
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
kakkerlak wrote:
Many useful books are around, but i do not really have the money to buy 'em all.For this i need a "buy these books or you're stupid list" in order to know how to spend my money wisely.
Idea 1:
My room is about 9 metres long and 4 metres wide and my toilet/shower is 1.80 by 0.80 metres. This may sound sad, but actually it's a smart decision; I only have to pay 150 Euro rent a month and this is cheap considering the location.
The only problem is storage space, but that can be fixed by realising that a room has 3 dimensions (length, width and height). Living in a small space is not only a good way to save money, it also allows you to easily pay the rent an entire year in advance. And that is very useful in a crisis situation.
Idea 2:
Because i do not have a garden or access to direct sunlight it's not possible to grow some nice vegetables. As a solution i'm learning about sprouts to have at least a little bit of green around. Can this be considered a "food production" skill?
The End of Suburbia - oil depletion and the collapse of the American dream
by Greene, Gregory DVD
Don't miss the commentary. Lots of Canadian prejudice against the US as well as snobbery, but very worthwhile behind the scene info.
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/
Farming for Self-sufficiency
by John and Sally Seymour
Root Cellaring : the simple no-processing way to store fruits and vegetables
by Bubel, Nancy./Bubel, Mike
Seed to Seed: seed saving techniques for the vegetable gardener
by Ashworth, Suzanne
Shelters, Shacks, and shanties: the classic guide to building wilderness shelters
by Beard, Daniel Carter
A Thousand Barrels a Second: the coming oil break point and the challenges facing an energy dependent world
by Tertzakian, Peter
Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
by Simmons, Matthew R.
Well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields.
U.S. Army combat skills handbook / Department of the Army.
Lyon's Press
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:54 am Post subject: Re: Big city dwellers...what's your plan?
ORCA wrote:
Having to live in a large city due to financial reasons or personal needs is one thing, but to relocate INTO a big city in preparation for a societal collapse goes against all logic...sorry.
If you currently enjoy the conveniances of living in a large city, and allow that to convince you to stay, please remember...those conveniances will most likely not survive long after post-oil. Human nature (or at least the worst of it) will survive and thrive. The strong will prey on the weak. The strong will begin taking what they want from those that have it.
In fact, most likely it will be the large cities who feel any breakdown first, and more severe, than the rural areas. Remember, due to "just in time" delivery of essential goods and services, cities normally never have more than three days food in inventory! Good luck.
Well, we are all entitled to our opinions.
I can say I would not move to NYC with hopes of long term PO survival.
But if I lived in NYC and could not get out I would work and plan the best I could for such survival.
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