Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 6:32 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
The Saudi's have shot their wad and can no longer "talk" the price down. They have repeated said they were going to increase production and have not done so. We simply don't believe them anymore.
Demand destruction is not going to be nearly as effective as it is thought.
Countries like China, where there is a very strong pent-up desire to drive are not inclined to step back. Keep in mind countries like this are quite use to sacrifice and so will sacrifice to continue to drive.
In the US driving is considered an essential service, and for most of the population it actually is. Unless there is a wholesale collapse of the US economy, bringing the whole thing to a sudden stop, I don't see much demand destruction occurring.
Mind I am actually expecting a sudden and very nasty US economic collapse. In which case gas prices will be the least of their worries. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 6:42 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
RdSnt wrote:
The Saudi's have shot their wad and can no longer "talk" the price down. They have repeated said they were going to increase production and have not done so. We simply don't believe them anymore.
Demand destruction is not going to be nearly as effective as it is thought.
Countries like China, where there is a very strong pent-up desire to drive are not inclined to step back. Keep in mind countries like this are quite use to sacrifice and so will sacrifice to continue to drive.
In the US driving is considered an essential service, and for most of the population it actually is. Unless there is a wholesale collapse of the US economy, bringing the whole thing to a sudden stop, I don't see much demand destruction occurring.
Mind I am actually expecting a sudden and very nasty US economic collapse. In which case gas prices will be the least of their worries.
I see global riots and chaos breaking out all over once gasoline and oil prices start causing serious demand destruction. In modern societies, oil and gasoline are like very addictive drugs. Most people can't give up this addiction, at any cost.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:45 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Drifter wrote:
RdSnt wrote:
The Saudi's have shot their wad and can no longer "talk" the price down. They have repeated said they were going to increase production and have not done so. We simply don't believe them anymore.
Demand destruction is not going to be nearly as effective as it is thought.
Countries like China, where there is a very strong pent-up desire to drive are not inclined to step back. Keep in mind countries like this are quite use to sacrifice and so will sacrifice to continue to drive.
In the US driving is considered an essential service, and for most of the population it actually is. Unless there is a wholesale collapse of the US economy, bringing the whole thing to a sudden stop, I don't see much demand destruction occurring.
Mind I am actually expecting a sudden and very nasty US economic collapse. In which case gas prices will be the least of their worries.
I see global riots and chaos breaking out all over once gasoline and oil prices start causing serious demand destruction. In modern societies, oil and gasoline are like very addictive drugs. Most people can't give up this addiction, at any cost.
For North Americans in particular I would not characterize the use of petroleum as an addiction. There simply are no near term meaningful alternatives that will do a lick of good. Our societies are completely dependent on the use of fossil fuels. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Very true. Alternatives for transportation exist, but saying "we have alternatives available" is a lot like saying "fusion is a viable replacement for our energy needs." Yes, we know how to create it, but we're years from making it a net energy producer, much less rolling it out as a commercial product. Yes there is technology for electric cars, and wind power and solar, but we're no where near a position for large scale deployment. Add to that the credit/economic problems we're in, and even if the manufacturing capability was there to crank these things out in a large enough volume...not enough people can buy them to really forestall this.
RdSnt wrote:
For North Americans in particular I would not characterize the use of petroleum as an addiction. There simply are no near term meaningful alternatives that will do a lick of good. Our societies are completely dependent on the use of fossil fuels.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Unless we massively lower our expectations of how much energy is necessary for a good life.
If over the next year we:
transitioned to a nearly meatless diet,
lived close to our work in much more condensed pattern ( many more people per square foot of living space),
pretty much stopped flying and most other long distance transport,
walked, biked and bussed (or train where available) to pretty much everything,
stopped buying useless crap and of course stopped breeding and slowed immigration (though the latter would probably take care of itself if this was the life style)--
if we did all this and a few other waste-saving things, then continued to move toward renewable sources for the energy we did use, we could get ahead of the PO curve and perhaps give ourselves and the earth a 10% chance of avoiding really horrific consequences of runaway global warming (though, I fear that boat may have already sailed).
But we are addicted to a lifestyle that has been enabled by the age of cheap oil. We will not turn away from it voluntarily. We will drive our collective car right off the cliff rather than slowing down and getting out of it.
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 155 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
I am encouraged by the reported 20% drop in petrol use compared to last year as people in the UK switch to even more fuel efficient cars and reduce the number of miles driven. I am now investigating an electric bike for the "can you popdown the shops and get some milk pls" chores that normally results in me going down in the car. I do believe with the right will a massive proportion of the oil consumed for transport can be cut out of the system.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Smudger wrote:
I am encouraged by the reported 20% drop in petrol use compared to last year as people in the UK switch to even more fuel efficient cars and reduce the number of miles driven. I am now investigating an electric bike for the "can you popdown the shops and get some milk pls" chores that normally results in me going down in the car. I do believe with the right will a massive proportion of the oil consumed for transport can be cut out of the system.
It's a good start ... but I reckon there is still a lot more fuel "fat" we can lose.
For my part I've given up the car and use train, bike and legs. Saving a fortune and nice 'n' fit. Trouble is I live in a Victorian house, so tricky to insulate. The UKs old housing stock is gonna be a devil .
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
When my daughter was in Woodbridge, Sussex on US Air Force duty, She shared a rental house with 2 others. It was stone (very old) and had been insulated on the inside with styrofoam sheets and panelling. Said it worked quite well, and made the heat reasonable. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
patience wrote:
When my daughter was in Woodbridge, Sussex on US Air Force duty, She shared a rental house with 2 others. It was stone (very old) and had been insulated on the inside with styrofoam sheets and panelling. Said it worked quite well, and made the heat reasonable.
The problem with old, stone houses is that they do not have cavity walls. Be careful to just stick styrofoam to the wall because of moist issues. There must be a small cavity between the wall and your insulation. On the hot side (living room) of the panelling you must put plastic foil since the vapour pressure differential goes from the inside to the outside, this will also lessen moist issues during cold weather when water vapour condenses on the cold stone surface.
Insulating a house isn't really a trivial thing if you want to do it properly.
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 155 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:42 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
the use thick walls as a thermally massive building works in regulating the temperature. the new modern twist is to reduce the airflow i.e. drafts but to do it without the mositure problem. the solution is a mechanical heat ventilation system which extracts the mositure and redistributes the heat while ensuring there is sufficient air changes in the house. a combination of all of the above can effectively remove the need for heating (if you have top notch insulated windows). houses like this with solar water panels and wood pellet boilers are v energy efficient and will minimise the energy demand from the gride. add on some pv panels and......
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 155 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:47 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
on a separate note the 2.3% reduction in US consumption is a great step forward. the good scenario for this year has to be continued demand reduction, increase in energy effifient cars/alternative trasnport use and the oil price staying between $125-138 thereby reducing the inflation risks at this time but keeeping the pressure on the world (esp the US) switching to more efficient transport. this will help prepare for the post oil transition far better than the oil price spiking even higher, casuing a global recession and stopping the ability of the population to afford to convert to the post oil scenario.
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Oil is back to $133... so it's basically in a $128-$138 range. However MSM will probably say oil is now "cheap", without considering the quick increase in 1 year. Maybe it's because they think oil will continue decreasing over time? _________________ anagami.net
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:31 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.89)
Did something happen within the last half hour or so? Before I started off for home from work just now I was looking at $134-135-ish, and then it shot up way over $138. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
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... but I reckon there is still a lot more fuel "fat" we can lose.
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