2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge II (Nov 25)

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 3076 Location: UK

Boy did I lose the last one! Never underestimate a central banker's aversion to pain. On the other hand, someone has to pull bullish predictions back down to an average with which we can clobber the analysts with authority. Smile

Here goes my second roll of the dice:

High - $157
Low - $99
Close - $130
Average - $135

This is based on a dollar index of 73.63 quoted today. I would like to reserve the right to adjust for any significant departure from this value.

Rationale is as follows. We made it through the first half of the year without decisively embarking upon a financial system collapse. Therefore the time during which a real low could be set is behind us. From here, declining inventories, the diesel picture and the hurricane season come into play. I expect prices to rattle around the current level and peak in autumn before falling back as the consumer realises Christmas is cancelled this year. The low prediction of $99 is a hedge against the collapse of a major financial institution or two. Other than that, I have priced in a couple of serious GoM threats, the usual events in Mexico and Nigeria, and Kuwaiti net exports taking a dip offsetting whatever KSA has to offer.

In the event of a Roccman Event, my beer hedge is still good, although hair loss would be a worry.
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MrBill · Expert Joined: Sep 15, 2005 Posts: 5650 Location: Eurasia

I doubt we will see my lows for the year. That was based on a close last year of $99.29 and now looks quite unobtainable, but I am none the less loath to change my predictions. In it to win it!

Your concern about the US dollar is why I put my new estimates in euros. If oil price strength is just the flipside of US dollar weakness then we are just treading water.

I am very curious about the effect of unwinding the positions of index investors on prices. They have amassed a huge long position. If the CFTC forced them to close their positions, or changed the rules regarding Wall Street banks open speculative postions, then we would be $20-30 lower in a heart beat. Mind you that is a big 'if' and not a prediction.
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sparky · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 167

.

Hight 167 $

Low 99 $

closing 160 $

Opec is not dead and still has some juice , China will HAVE to let go of their demand ,they have been holding back but the dragon is hungry for more

The big unknown is the greenback and the present administration strange obsessions in foreign policies , his rhetoric is still agro toward Iran , a stupid mistake by a junior officer in the gulf could set the cat amongst the pigeons

That's the same as my yearly with a 10 $ increase on the low , I keep the greenback because the that's the linchpin of the whole world trading .

If it goes pop ,the Saudi loose a bundle ,NYMEX close it's doors while the world go into convulsions and the Marines stand watch at the Ras Tanura terminal .

.

halcyon · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 168

So far.

Cog

Well here is a noob's shot at board immortality

High $150
Low $110
Close $130

morph · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 28, 2006 Posts: 105

Right closing in on the deadline so...

High: $149
Low: $121
Close: $129

Arsenal

High 179
Low 111
Close 161

biofuel13

High: 173
Low: 127
Close: 162

3aidlillahi

My average s (can't type the "eye" button) $145.00.
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SteinarN

High: 178, low: 124, close: 156

ExtractionEngineer

$ = 0.0002x^2 - 14.278x + 278650

.....working pretty well since 2006.

High=$172
Low=$132
Close=$169

Mominator · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2008 Posts: 106 Location: FL

New here, but I'll play.

$132 Low
$199 High
$184 close
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VMarcHart

Low - $145
High - $170
Close - $168

Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4041

OK, I'll follow again my method: average of all previous predictions with 15% discount because of bullish bias on oil prevailing in this forum.

High - 180.75
Low - 97.55
Close - 144.85

It's worth noting that peakniks have become even more bullish than their usual for this set of predictions. Specifically:

High prediction average has increased 30% from the predictions at the beginning of the year
Low prediction average has increased 22%
Close prediction average has increased 25%
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DantesPeak

Although we haven't yet reached my prior call of a $146 high, I now think that call is too low. Especially when the President of OPEC predicts $170 oil.

Also some OPEC insiders seem to think $200 oil is coming, but I am not quite sure if they meant this year or not.

So for revised forecast the second half of 2008 is

High - 170
Low - 120
Close - 150

Of course if bombs drop on Iran, my forecast will appear rather tame. However on another subject I believe if US futures markets for oil are closed - the price will rise rapidly. I know this is the total opposite of what Mr. Bill and others say, but I think the scramble to close out positions will reveal that some major shorts are not natural hedgers (that is not sellers of energy).
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It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.