The prognosis for the United States

Graeme

joewp

I vote for Scenario 3, and actually worse, because there's nothing about a die off in that description.
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pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3841

Just for fun, let's look at an example, for the period between 2005 and 2007.

Germany's crude oil is nearly 100% imported. Since 2005, they have reduced their consumption of crude oil about 9%, from about 2.6 mbpd to roughly 2.4 mbpd. When you take into consideration the exchange rate change during that period, the effective cost of oil for the German economy increased only about 4%. during that time.

During that same period, oil usage in the US stayed relatively flat. The price went from 57 to 72 (average prices for '05 and '07) and no exchange rate adjustment. So, the effective cost for the US economy went up by 24%.

Of course, since 2007, the prices have nearly doubled again, so the calculation is a little behind, but you have to say, the Germans have a big built-in advantage of about a factor of 6 because they have used their brains and conserved on oil.

This of course is aside from the fact that Germany has 1/3 of the population of the US, and uses only about 11% as much oil, still maintaining an excellent standard of living, cheap chocolate, attractive females, and general high quality of life.

So, who is going to win?

SILENTTODD

anarky321

a very flawed argument that does not take into consideration all the other energy that germany consumes, whether they are from natural gas, coal or 'reneweables', and it consumes a gigantic amount of all 3; then you can factor in the amount of fossil fuels that go into all the food and consumer merchandise and intermediate assembly parts that Germany imports and calculate how much oil and other energy resources it took to make all that, THEN you would get something closer to the real picture; but to say that Germany is so efficient because they use less oil than the US per capita and yet maintain a high standard of living is a statement that sounds rather amateur coming from a PO "expert"

Germany is going to get absolutely mauled by PO for many reasons; Gott forbid their NG lifeline from Russia got cut off...

anyways im ranting now but i just wanted to point out the oversimplification of your argument

edit: a note on food, german food prices stayed low for reasons of competition between the country's largest grocer chains (long story) but now are soaring; a year ago germany had the lowest food prices in all europe if i remember correctly, but the situation is changing drastically on that front so you can forget about the cheap chokolate and Bier, moreso as we go forward into the darkness; also germany's standard of living is going to be absolutely destroyed as the demand for its production (cars and other big ticket items) drops off a cliff and people get laid off by the thousands (already happening); their standard of living is going to get violently degraded to the level of Russia (of course Russia's is going up not down) in the not so distant future; you can quote me on that
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cephalotus

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3841

vision-master

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3517 Location: Maine

Okay, let's take off with a few other scenarios.

Scenario 4 - Dark Red alert

The government of the US does almost nothing and the price of oil goes up over $200. Most people are confused and don't have any idea of what to do. Almost no houses are selling, except for super energy efficient ones, and they go to the well off who live in small enclaves surrounded by abject poverty.

People out in the country try farming, but with almost nobody who knows how to do it any more they have a steep learning curve.

Car sales are flat. The only cars selling are the small efficient ones, but they are snapped up as fast as they are made. Most people are walking.

I don't want to go any further, but I'm sure some of you can fill in some even darker scenarios.
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vision-master

cephalotus

roccman

Scenario 3 is woefully inadequate.

Vision master is right.

No one talks about the real issue...that upwards of 75% of the human population will be dead in under 2 decades...this more than likely means YOU will be dead.

The Road is a good description of what it will be like.
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evilgenius

I see the die off coming too, if we don't get busy now! If there isn't a high speed rail initiative launched by Feb of next year, at least as a test track from LA to Vegas or the equivalent, you will know that the leaders in the US aren't going to do what needs to be done. Ditto if some kind of tax is not introduced that discourages severely the ownership of older heavier less fuel efficient vehicles. Somebody from the new government is going to have to sit down with Detroit and let them know that the era of selling the candy that people want is over as well. The fleet average is going to have to go up to 35-40 mpg by the end of '09 to even begin to avoid scenario 3.

More importantly, to avoid a die off, as opposed to scenario 3, there is going to have to be a change in the international approach of the US. The US is going to have to walk a fine line. The have got to maintain their presence in many places, while scaling back, and they have got to begin to share power, especially regionally and most especially as it pertains to energy security. If they don't begin to engage the Russians over the future of the Middle East in a way that acknowledges Russian power and proximity I believe they risk the kind of war that not only precipitates a die off, but seals it as well.

The bottom line, I suppose, is that it is time to have courage that the advances that this crushing time will develop are to be believed in for the future, not the old safe way of fossil fuel largess which necessitates squeezing the rest of the world as the oil runs out so that one nation's pre-eminence can be maintained at the expense of the rest of the world. I know it is a tempting scenario for the powers that be to believe that they can squeeze the rest of the world until it all runs dry and then ride rough shod over them while trickling newly developed technology out to a needy world, but the very idea that they can do that without a large scale war disrupting the game and sending the chess pieces flying is ludicrous. War is the wild card that has to be avoided immediately followed closely by disease. We can just about do it, but the daily usage of the US is going to have to be reduced by at least half and soon.
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Kingcoal

Rabbit · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 121

"If there isn't a high speed rail initiative launched by Feb of next year, at least as a test track from LA to Vegas"

That's crazy talk. That's a totally worthless project. People have no business going to, or living in Vegas. The age of moving people across hundreds of miles of desert to gamble their money away is such a waist of resources. Let Vegas wilt and die.

We need to create fresh sustainable communities in places that have good weather and arable land. City and business in the center, food production around the outside. We need community master planning now that is setup around walking and biking.
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