Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 826 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: The prognosis for the United States
LA to Vegas is only a test application, because of the demand there to convince the naysayers. It is a political offering, really. High speed rail is definitely going to have to connect the big cities as we give up air travel for all but long haul flights. I didn't mean to encourage the current model by suggesting LA to Vegas, rather to change it, sorry.
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:00 am Post subject: Re: The prognosis for the United States
Code:
Volume Costs
Germany US Germany US
Oil Cons BBL 2605 20802
Oil Price $/bbl 54.52 54.52 142025 1134125
Gas Cons BCF 8.3 60.3
Gas price, BCF 5.95 8.75 49 528
Coal Cons MTOE/ 82.1 574.2
Coal price/ USD 61.07 70.147520.77160411.58
T/boe 1.5 1.5
Total 149595 1195064
Exch Rate 1.21 1446028
Germany US Germany US
Oil Cons bbl 2393 20698
Oil Price $/bbl 72.39 72.39 173229 1498328
Gas Cons BCF 8 63.2
Gas Price 8.93 6.95 71 439
Coal Cons MTOE 86 573.7
Coal Price USD/ 86.6 51.12 11171 43991
T/boe 1.5 1.5
Total 184472 1542759
Exch Rate 1.34 2067297
German Impact 1.23
US Impact 1.43
On further review, here is a detailed analysis of the relative impacts of fuel costs 2005-2007 on Germany and the US.
Note that this included a period in which the natural gas price dropped, and coal price went up, both of which greatly favored the US as far as the calculation goes.
But, the effects of the energy price increases, given the current mix of fossil fuel energy sources were roughly double for the US compared to Germany. Maybe next year, when the effects of the skyrocketing coal and gas prices are figured in, we will re-do the calculation. The German natural gas consumption decreased during this time, but their coal consumption increased. Their coping mechanism, in addition to conversion to some non-fossil fuels, was to use their domestic energy source, coal, to a greater extent.
The US coping mechanism was to basically do nothing and let the market decide.
You are quite right, though, Germany, being the energy intense, energy importing place that it is, will have a hard time, but until things get really bad, they will have a real advantage, compared to the US, at whatever "stage" of transition they adopt. Part of this advantage still goes back to the point that they are still about three times more efficient overall in energy use per population or unit of GDP.
Also, as we have noted repeatedly, the German population on the whole will probably be a lot more cohesive and cooperative than the US population, about 13 states of which would be delighted to pick up their firearms and secede from the rest of the country, finishing the job that temporarily paused in 1865.
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:45 am Post subject: Re: The prognosis for the United States
It might be useful to consider the US as a group of regions, for purposes of looking at the next 5-10 years.
I expect the Northeast to suffer more from high priced heating oil, and oil fired electrical generation. The Midwest will suffer more from high gasoline and diesel prices, due to longer commutes and less public transit. Southern California has its' troubles with real estate and water supplies, not to mention NG fired electric generation. Florida will lose a lot of tourist trade, as vacation travel distances shorten.
Such regional differences will alter the details for a given area, I think. Here in the midwest, we'll see a migration of those 20 miles from a job back to the cities, with lots of unemployment in the smaller towns that depend on a few manufacturing businesses. That will trash the real estate market for housing in the countryside, while I expect farmland to hold its' price for a while, barring some ag related fiasco.
Broadly speaking, the US has some big problems coming, no doubt. I'm trying to figure out what the details could be in various places. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5210 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: The prognosis for the United States
pup55 wrote:
the German population on the whole will probably be a lot more cohesive and cooperative than the US population, about 13 states of which would be delighted to pick up their firearms and secede from the rest of the country, finishing the job that temporarily paused in 1865.
Yup.
Of course its easy to be "cohesive" when you've already lost much of the land area of your country.
A big part of what used to be Germany is now in Poland. Other small parts now belong to France and there's even a bit thats Belgian. A tiny part of what used to be German Prussia is now Russian.
Its true that the remaining bit of Germany is cohesive (except for East Germany....there are still some resentments from the Osties.)
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