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mcgowanjm
Tar Sands
Joined: May 23, 2008
Posts: 63
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 Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($140.39) |
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| NoWorries wrote: | | Ebbs and flows. We knew this was coming (per Goldman Sachs and others). But even Goldman Sachs (Murti) is saying prices will fall back eventually, possibly by Christmas. |
Time is the prime factor now. The end of the Hyper Parabolic.
$167 by Labor Day.
The surprize will be when it doesn't fall back, but just gradually,
grindingly plateaus. |
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patience
Expert
Joined: Jan 04, 2008
Posts: 1736
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 9:17 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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AAAARRRRGH!
Here we go-o-o-o-o-o!
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Local fix-it guy.. |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3178
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:26 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($140.39) |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | I think it's pretty bogus to equate the sale of a futures contract as having the same economic effect as the sale of a barrel of oil. Paper demand gets met with paper supply that is just as easy to create out of thin air. If the futures market was overpriced, supply should be starting to overwhelm demand. The price of the futures contracts would tank as they approach expiration because no one would want future delivery. All the speculators would lose their shirts. The only way that a speculator can affect the supply demand equation for the physical product is to buy and hoard the physical product. The only place that's happening is the SPR. Otherwise, stores of physical oil are lower than they were a year ago. |
The futures traders only have to put up 10% of the price out of their pocket. What it they had to pay it in full when they bought it ? |
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sjn
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 09, 2005
Posts: 615
Location: UK
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:32 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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I honestly believe that the "speculators" have been keeping the price contained (read: going short). We're seeing these spikes up periodically as they get squeezed out as the pressure builds. They can't affect the fundamentals in the short to medium term, afterall their function and purpose is to provide liquidity to the market for the benefit of the commercials. In the long term they'll lose their shirts.
Last edited by sjn on Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:37 am; edited 2 times in total |
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strider3700
Fission
Joined: Apr 17, 2005
Posts: 2758
Location: Vancouver Island
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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speculators always get out when the current month contract rolls into the next. All that is left when the contract closes is people wanting to take delivery. How much did the price move and in which direction the last time the contract closed?
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shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 6434
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:44 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($140.39) |
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| Armageddon wrote: | | The futures traders only have to put up 10% of the price out of their pocket. What it they had to pay it in full when they bought it ? |
It doesn't matter. You can twist and contort and screw with the futures market any way you see fit. It doesn't matter. The price is where the price should be right now. If anything it's maybe a little low. If you want to complain about someone driving up the price, look to the Chinese. Get all ticked off about your SUV driving neighbor. NYMEX is just telling you what the price needs to be in order to keep supply and demand balanced.
This is a classic case of killing the messenger.
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"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1761
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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dukey
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2067
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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really who cares about speculation and futures
when the date comes someone HAS to take delivery, this always causes a sell off in the market. What are you gonna do as a speculator ? Store a thousand barrels of oil in your back yard ?
lol
the speculation argument is just one people put forward in the media because they would like to blame something other than supply and demand and really they have no clue how anything works |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6750
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:17 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($140.39) |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | ...The price is where the price should be right now. If anything it's maybe a little low... |
Those who should know are in agreement:
Crude prices rise as the dollar hovers near record low and supply concerns persist. Analysts see $150 a barrel looming.
| Quote: | Friday's jump to $142 a barrel prompted several analysts to predict that the market is headed for an even greater milestone: $150.
"We are of the opinion that if the bears cannot stem the bleeding now, then who is going to prevent this market from going to $150... and beyond," oil industry analyst Stephen Schork wrote in his daily newsletter, The Schork Report.
"We could go to $150 in the blink of an eye," said Carbone.
"I think the up trend is going to continue," said Pawlicki. "We could move up toward $150 over the next few weeks." |
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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Sketh
Tar Sands
Joined: Jul 02, 2005
Posts: 60
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:37 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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Breaking through again.
142.54 |
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biofuel13
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 07, 2008
Posts: 446
Location: Chaska, MN
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:37 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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| 142.51 yippie!! |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 6434
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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| zensui wrote: | | in this chart (10 minutes, 500 units) the maximum value is $142.31... is that a new record? |
That's a UK site. That may be Brent Crude. For the purpose of consistency on the thread we're using front month WTI. It's still at 142.26 for the moment.
Well...actually as I'm typing it just hit 142.54
_________________
"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1761
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:52 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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$142.8
| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | zensui wrote: | | in this chart (10 minutes, 500 units) the maximum value is $142.31... is that a new record? |
That's a UK site. That may be Brent Crude. For the purpose of consistency on the thread we're using front month WTI. It's still at 142.26 for the moment.
Well...actually as I'm typing it just hit 142.54 |
not really. In the same website there is a "live crude oil" and a "live brent oil". So at least, the prices I'm quoting are NOT brent.
In Brent the high will be $143.84
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6750
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:52 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.26) |
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CNBC in now continuously displaying a crude oil price graphic in the lower right-hand corner of its screen. Highest I've seen so far is $142.83.
Their pundits and talking heads really do seem genuinely scared by all this. They appear to be sincerely worried. I don't think I'm imagining it.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1761
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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