Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3178 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:26 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
This entire financial system is about ready to collapse, and the funny thing is 99.9% of the sheeple will never attribute it to peak oil. What a shame.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
My $.02. The 3rd quarter this year looks real scary to me for the US economy, and probably some other places. What I've been reading the past year says the banks are propped up on a stack of worthless paper and a crutch provided by the Federal Reserve. If oil keeps going up by fits and starts like it has been, the grassroots in the US will be economic toast by Oct. - Dec., as the fuel induced price increases permeate everyday life. If the relationship of crude price to gasoline price is what I've been reading about, we have yet to catch up to $100 oil. When $140 oil is realized at the pump, then it will be what, $6.50/gallon when that gets to the pump? That will crash the retail economy but good. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:34 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
Still, don't think this is that big a deal, though we are closing in on the all liquids peak. When gas gets over $10/gallon and keeps going up, that is when things will get interesting.
g
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
Fangorn's eme, check out the neighboring available energy thread. While we may be near all-liquids peak (a shadowy figure, in any event), we are past peak for light sweet crude and well past peak for available energy.
We may be approaching the EROEI wall, where on average more energy has to be expended to get the stuff out of the ground than is recovered in the viscous black product itself. As we approach that wall, we should expect price to leave the relatively gentle (but still catastrophic over time) exponential slope it has been on since the low of $10/bbl, and enter a jumping-off-the-cliff hyperbolic stage, where as we approach the date (whatever it is) the price approaches infinity.
I know, infinite price sounds like an absurdity, but it means we are in a whole new paradigm, and it could happen quite quickly. Tough to know exact dates though.
Let me point out that it took prices about four years ('98-2002) to double from 10 to 20, then just two years to double to 40 in '04 and again to (near) 80 in '06. We're on track to hit (at least) 160 this year, but the rate of increase recently has been much higher than the last few years and may indicate that we are entering a faster rate of doubling (steeper exponential curve) or some kind of hyperbolic curve (hitting a wall, jumping off a cliff, pick your favorite metaphor).
Of course, even sticking with doubling every year would be bad enough--320 in '10, 640 in '12...But now that looks like the optimistic scenario.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:02 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
dohboi wrote:
As we approach that wall, we should expect price to leave the relatively gentle (but still catastrophic over time) exponential slope it has been on since the low of $10/bbl, and enter a jumping-off-the-cliff hyperbolic stage, where as we approach the date (whatever it is) the price approaches infinity.
I know, infinite price sounds like an absurdity, but it means we are in a whole new paradigm, and it could happen quite quickly.
I'm with you. Global hyperinflation is a distinct possibility, and we may be approaching that. A loaf of bread already costs over 6 billion Zimbabwe dollars, last I heard, and that price continues to climb rapidly. In a hyperinflationary environment, prices continue to go up exponentially until *something breaks*. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
dohboi : I love your infinity price approach. I did not think about that, even if the EROEI looked also to me as a wall, I didn't linked negative EROEI to infinite price.
This economic viewpoint, meaning trying to translate EROEI to economists , is the best way to make everyone understand what it actually signifies.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2124 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
Oil's bounced off the 50 on the daily fib and is on the way up in early Sydney trading at $141.475. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 6:42 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
First of all there's no such thing as a negative EROEI. Secondly, if it goes less than 1, that won't mean the oil is unbuyable because there are other sources of energy in the world. Oil will have a finite price and people will still be able to buy it.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1190 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 6:45 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
emailking wrote:
First of all there's no such thing as a negative EROEI. Secondly, if it goes less than 1, that won't mean the oil is unbuyable because there are other sources of energy in the world. Oil will have a finite price and people will still be able to buy it.
I believe the term "negative EROEI" is being used in the context of two barrels of oil invested for one barrel of oil equivalent out giving a net loss. Other than the folks making the profit in that deal most people will view that as a negative. _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
If oil goes up over $200 a lot of people won't be able to heat their houses at all. They might still drive around a bit, but car culture will take a serious hit. I just read the CIBC report and it sounds like they are predicting 10 million less cars in the US in the next 4 years. It's really hit the mainstream. They are getting people ready for $7 gasoline already.
Here it comes. The only satisfaction we can get out of this is the "told you so" factor. Some of my colleagues might hit me if I say it, but it might be worth it. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
Revi wrote:
If oil goes up over $200 a lot of people won't be able to heat their houses at all. They might still drive around a bit, but car culture will take a serious hit. I just read the CIBC report and it sounds like they are predicting 10 million less cars in the US in the next 4 years. It's really hit the mainstream. They are getting people ready for $7 gasoline already.
Here it comes. The only satisfaction we can get out of this is the "told you so" factor. Some of my colleagues might hit me if I say it, but it might be worth it.
They won't have enough money, that's true. But I expect government intervention to step in heavily by winter. First they will order utility companies to accept late payments. Then they will give heating subsidies at some federal or state level.
Even with that help, people will be worse off and will have to spend less on everything else - if possible.
I'm not reminding anyone I told them so, even if I did. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Sep 29, 2005 Posts: 456 Location: I heard we are not the real America..Eugene, Oregon.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 7:27 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($142.99)
Revi wrote:
If oil goes up over $200 a lot of people won't be able to heat their houses at all. They might still drive around a bit, but car culture will take a serious hit. I just read the CIBC report and it sounds like they are predicting 10 million less cars in the US in the next 4 years. It's really hit the mainstream. They are getting people ready for $7 gasoline already.
Here it comes. The only satisfaction we can get out of this is the "told you so" factor. Some of my colleagues might hit me if I say it, but it might be worth it.
Might be worth it just to hop into the car to keep the family warm next winter!
Asian MKTS are opening..looks like 141.63 at this point.
catbox
Should be an interesting Monday. _________________ Punk is not really a style of music. It was more like a state of mind.
-Mike Watt
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