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PeakingAroundtheCorner
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 08, 2007
Posts: 480
Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
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 Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| The Vancouver Sun wrote: |
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=2eeece50-285f-4c4b-bb37-2d053d04d4e8
The period from 1950 to 2000 will be remembered as the Golden Era of modern civilization, the pinnacle reached by humans after a million years of evolution. This brilliant half-century was sponsored largely by fossil fuels, especially oil, which brought unprecedented economic growth, plentiful transportation and a rich and diverse lifestyle.
But the new millennium has brought the end of cheap oil, and civilization is suddenly teetering on the edge of collapse. Even if we manage to scrape through (and it would require heroic efforts), life will change. We're at one of the most important turning points in history, yet we persistently ignore the coming meltdown and just want to party on. Nero would be proud.
So, why is civilization teetering? First, peak oil has arrived. There is no better signal than the price of oil, which has skyrocketed past $130 and shows no sign of slowing. Some shrug and claim there's still a lot left, technology will find it and extract it. Others, as represented by the editors of Maclean's magazine, feel that we have grappled with costly oil before and by applying determined conservation and new efficiencies, we will cope.
Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Peak oil, this two-syllable piece of jargon, is another way of saying we are on the threshold of a major crisis. From now on the supply of oil will diminish each year, but population and demand will continue to grow. This is truly frightening because our modern industrial society is built on and totally dependent on this versatile fuel. It is the foundation for transportation, industry, agriculture, fishing and much more. As the gap between what economies and nations need and what they can get widens, bidding wars will erupt (they already have) and then shooting wars (one already has).
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As frank an assessment of the current situation as I've come across. 2 pages and covers food shortages also.
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dunewalker
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Posts: 707
Location: northern California
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 6:52 pm Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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Here's some more doomer porn, provided by Leanan at the Oildrum Drumbeat, today:
"U.S. 'meltdown' Imminent says Fortis
June 28 08, 09:10
by our correspondent
BRUSSELS / AMSTERDAM (DFT) - Fortis expects within the next few days to weeks the complete collapse of the U.S. financial markets. That explains the bank insurers € 8 billion intervention Thursday. "We are ready at the last minute. What's happening in the United States is much worse than we thought," said Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens. Fortis expects bankruptcies of 6000 U.S. banks that now lack coverage. "But Citigroup, General Motors, there begins a complete meltdown."Fortis announcement
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"I believe that a wise Vermonter lives more by lack of expense rather than from income."--some Dartmouth professor from across the river |
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DoomWarrior
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 06, 2008
Posts: 285
Location: Omicron Ceti 3
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote: | | As frank an assessment of the current situation as I've come across. 2 pages and covers food shortages also. |
Pretty good for MSM coverage. |
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biofuel13
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 07, 2008
Posts: 228
Location: Chaska, MN
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| Finally the alarm bells are beginning to ring. I hope someone out there in the MSM audience listens. |
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FairMaiden
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 11, 2005
Posts: 252
Location: Vancouver, BC
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 10:15 pm Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| I live within the readership of the Vancouver Sun. Last year my city had community workshop and ads for peak oil preparation. We have known about it and talked about it for a few years now. |
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mattduke
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 28, 2005
Posts: 1333
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 10:53 pm Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| The "golden era" of the gold standard was the late 1800's. The financial meltdown occurred precisely because we are NOT in a "golden era." |
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TreebeardsUncle
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jun 15, 2006
Posts: 572
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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Do folks think we have really reached peak oil (in general not just for light sweet crude)? Do they expect more of a choppy plateau or a fall-off behavior coming up. The famous chart indicates an all-liquids peak by 2010 so we are just about there now. I think we have 18 months until things get interesting.
g |
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BigTex
Moderator
Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Posts: 4267
Location: Graceland
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:29 pm Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| TreebeardsUncle wrote: | Do folks think we have really reached peak oil (in general not just for light sweet crude)? Do they expect more of a choppy plateau or a fall-off behavior coming up. The famous chart indicates an all-liquids peak by 2010 so we are just about there now. I think we have 18 months until things get interesting.
g |
9/11 was really the turning point. Things have been deteriorating since then.
It was 9/11 and after when pretty much all of the tailwinds turned into headwinds. The peak oil story is only one of several long term sweet deals that are now in the process of unwinding.
I don't think that 9/11 was designed to be a turning point in history, but it really was.
Peak oil obviously doesn't have a whole lot to do with terrorism (the peak of oil production would occur whether terrorists were operating or not), but the fact that these happen to be the bad guys that the keystone cops are chasing around right now is weaving itself into the peak oil story in a way that will make it appear as if 9/11 was the tipping point, and whether this is coincidental or not, that event is probably going to be seen as the point when the world took a turn for the worse and things never really got better after that.
Remember that peak oil is not a calamity that will unfold in isolation. Peak oil travels with a rough crowd, which includes:
- environmental destruction
- overpopulation leading to mass starvation
- resource wars
- hyperinflation/destruction of fiat currencies
- economic recession/depression on global scale
It would be possible to argue that the tipping point was the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, but I wouldn't put the date that things started to really come apart much later than that.
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Madpaddy
Expert
Joined: Jun 25, 2004
Posts: 2062
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:29 am Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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BigTex wrote,
| Quote: | Peak oil travels with a rough crowd, which includes:
- environmental destruction
- overpopulation leading to mass starvation
- resource wars
- hyperinflation/destruction of fiat currencies
- economic recession/depression on global scale |
I'm going to do a George Carlins (with the 10 commandments) on you here and reduce your rough crowd of 6 to 4.
Peak Oil
War
Pestilence
Famine
AKA the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse.
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www.askaboutenergy.com |
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SILENTTODD
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 06, 2006
Posts: 873
Location: Tustin, CA
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:45 am Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| dunewalker wrote: | Here's some more doomer porn, provided by Leanan at the Oildrum Drumbeat, today:
"U.S. 'meltdown' Imminent says Fortis
June 28 08, 09:10
by our correspondent
BRUSSELS / AMSTERDAM (DFT) - Fortis expects within the next few days to weeks the complete collapse of the U.S. financial markets. That explains the bank insurers € 8 billion intervention Thursday. "We are ready at the last minute. What's happening in the United States is much worse than we thought," said Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens. Fortis expects bankruptcies of 6000 U.S. banks that now lack coverage. "But Citigroup, General Motors, there begins a complete meltdown."Fortis announcement |
Is the Fortis post available in english?
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Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan |
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wisconsin_cur
Moderator
Joined: May 10, 2007
Posts: 2924
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:51 am Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| SILENTTODD wrote: | | dunewalker wrote: | Here's some more doomer porn, provided by Leanan at the Oildrum Drumbeat, today:
"U.S. 'meltdown' Imminent says Fortis
June 28 08, 09:10
by our correspondent
BRUSSELS / AMSTERDAM (DFT) - Fortis expects within the next few days to weeks the complete collapse of the U.S. financial markets. That explains the bank insurers € 8 billion intervention Thursday. "We are ready at the last minute. What's happening in the United States is much worse than we thought," said Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens. Fortis expects bankruptcies of 6000 U.S. banks that now lack coverage. "But Citigroup, General Motors, there begins a complete meltdown."Fortis announcement |
Is the Fortis post available in english? |
Google translator version of above link
_________________
"Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith |
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7-Zark-7
Coal
Joined: Jun 28, 2008
Posts: 4
Location: Guernsey, Channel Islands
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:03 am Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| Answer already posted above |
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MrBean
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 26, 2004
Posts: 1144
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:52 am Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| TreebeardsUncle wrote: | Do folks think we have really reached peak oil (in general not just for light sweet crude)? Do they expect more of a choppy plateau or a fall-off behavior coming up. The famous chart indicates an all-liquids peak by 2010 so we are just about there now. I think we have 18 months until things get interesting.
g |
Doesn't matter. What matters is net exports of oil - which have been in decline since 2005. http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/ |
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dunewalker
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Posts: 707
Location: northern California
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 8:57 am Post subject: Re: Civilization's golden era is teetering on collapse |
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| SILENTTODD wrote: |
Is the Fortis post available in english? |
Here's a translation provided by an Oildrum staff person:
Fortis article re: imminent collapse of US financial system
_________________
"I believe that a wise Vermonter lives more by lack of expense rather than from income."--some Dartmouth professor from across the river |
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