How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Brickhead wrote:
I was just wondering what you guys thought about the new Honda Clarity (haven't seen it discussed yet). Do you guys think this tech can eliminate using gasoline? I think I remember seeing a chart on here that listed gasoline as the main use for oil. If the Clarity makes other car companies produce their own hydrogen cars it might buy us some time. I know we will have to get all the gasoline engines off the road for that to happen but it might be a possibility. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Hydrogen is not a source of energy. It is an energy consumer. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
MonteQuest wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
Really, this is no longer peakoil.com. It's overshoot.com.
You really think you can address peakoil and not address over population?
Over population.
That phrase is more opinion than fact.
If you took the entire population of Earth and put it in Texas,
and restricted everyone to one story living, they would all
get about 1,100 sq. ft. a peice.
268,820 square miles; 5,280 ft. squared per sq. per mile;
27,878,400 sq. ft per sq. mile; 7,494,271,488,000 sq. ft.;
sq ft. divided by world population of 6.6 billion equals roughly
1,100 sq. ft. per person just in Texas.
The real issue would be meeting food, water, and energy needs.
The food could be done via Hydroponics and Rabbits.
Joined: Nov 25, 2006 Posts: 1361 Location: New York area
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
BigTex wrote:
Wow.
I thought my post was pretty friendly.
I don't know where he got condescension.
Are you serious? You basically lumped him in with a certain "type" and proceeded to tell him all the things he probably believes and why they're wrong.
Nothing wrong with telling someone they're wrong but lumping them into a group is indeed condescending. _________________ My PO Amazon store (shameless plug).
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4037 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:24 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Narz wrote:
BigTex wrote:
I thought my post was pretty friendly.
I don't know where he got condescension.
Are you serious? You basically lumped him in with a certain "type" and proceeded to tell him all the things he probably believes and why they're wrong.
Nothing wrong with telling someone they're wrong but lumping them into a group is indeed condescending.
Okay, it's not condescending to tell someone that they're wrong, but it is condescending to lump them into a group that has the same beliefs?
Are you sure about that distinction?
If someone wanted to lump me in with doomers, it wouldn't occur to me that that was condescending.
BTW, here is the post that was supposed to be condescending:
BigTex wrote:
Strontium, welcome to the site. I'm not sure what brought you here, but it sounds like you have a lot to say.
You are an outstanding foot soldier of industrial civilization; you're actually much better than you even realize. You probably don't think of your words and thoughts as being anything but your own, but there is a message from headquarters that you are parroting to perfection.
The message is this:
- Human beings are DIFFERENT from other life forms.
- There are supernatural forces at work in the universe that are guiding and assisting humanity in its quest to find its destiny.
- The world is here to support human life.
- When the needs of humanity come in conflict with the needs of another life form, the other life form must yield.
- The growth of the human population is an entitlement.
- Endless exponential economic growth is necessary to accommodate our endless population growth.
- Human intelligence is, on balance, a good thing, and the more human intelligence the better.
- Technology is the highest expression of humanity's talent for tool-making.
***
Does this reflect your thinking in general? It wouldn't be unusual if it did. This strain of thought has been the battle flag of humanity as it has exterminated its competitors and conquered its habitat. The problems with this approach to life take a while to untangle, and I wouldn't expect you to have a balanced view of the matter three hours after arriving here.
Whether or not you are prepared to acknowledge them at this point, the following realities are chipping away at humanity's fantasy regarding its specialness and destiny:
- Infinite population growth in a finite world is impossible. Until the moment the system crashes, however, this is often not understood by its inhabitants.
- Inifinite economic growth in a finite world is impossible. Economic growth requires resource inputs, and those resources are not based upon infinite supplies. Thus, the economic growth that they generate must also be limited. However, like population growth, this reality is not well-understood by the modern starry-eyed capitalist.
- The near simultaneous convergence in human history of three events have laid the groundwork for an enormous human and ecological disaster:
1. The discovery by Europeans of the New World
2. The formulation of the Germ Theory of medicine
3. The discovery of fossil fuels
These three events laid the groundwork for temporary exponential growth of the human population by giving them a place to grow (the New World), a way to grow (the Germ Theory) and a way to supply the growing populations with its food and fuel needs (fossil fuels).
However, the New World and fossil fuels represent large, but finite, endowments. Once these are exhausted, many of our beliefs will require revision. Many of us here enjoy discussing what these "belief revisions" might look like.
If you are interested in refining your understanding of where we are at, you will first need to take a much more critical look at technology and its role in long-term human survival (as in how we might survive more than a few hundred more years).
I will make a friendly and sincere suggestion to you, though, to take some time to absorb some of the ideas that you are attempting to glibly refute. This is not a topic in which tit-for-tat arguing allows for much progress. You are getting feedback from people who have spent years developing an understanding of some of these ideas, and you might do well to try to learn something from them before instantly deciding they are simply wrong.
Best of luck.
If that's condescending, we may need to all chip in and send MonteQuest to charm school, because I'm not sure he's ever been that gentle with a cornie. _________________
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Ludi wrote:
Homesteader wrote:
Anyone besides me starting to think if it talks like a troll, walks like a troll and stinks like a troll that maybe it is a troll?
No, I think strontium is 100% sincere and believes everything he posts.
Not a troll.
I think your right here.
Most of society in fact thinks I am a kook when I EVEN talk
about peak oil.
I send them to the DOE website showing the Worldwide
decline, and only til now when oil breaks $140 a barrel
do they start to scratch their heads.
It is a major effort just to get them to watch Crude Awakening.
Most are too busy with their distractions.
Once the Iranian-Israeli war kicks off in the middle east
the price will spike much higher than it is now.
I try to tell them about the oil crisis back in the early 70's
and only the grey headed crowd will even acknowledge it
happened, but most of them say its not like that now.
I still say though at some level some ppl have helped
this situation along with the die off and are looking
forward to it, and wrote it in stone.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:54 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Ludi wrote:
Homesteader wrote:
We are doomers because we have accepted the need for change and actively explore the avenues of change and for some are living the change.
I'm a doomer because most folks haven't accepted the need for change and most folks aren't actively exploring avenues of change or actually living the change.
I'm a doomer because so many people seem to think expressing hopefulness about a technological "save" is somehow the same as actually doing something.
I see technological solutions, but I also see that they are being..
"slow rolled"
They will get here too late to keep a collapse from occuring
unless a major under taking is engaged immediately.
With the current mindset I got better odds winning the lottery.
So in that regards I fall in the Doomer camp as well.
Too many ppl want things status quo, and no one at the
top levels of government are pushing hard for a massive
scale up that really works.
Corn based Ethanol is a joke, its an Archer Daniels
Midland money scam.
100,000 gallons per acre per year of algae based oil.
Scaling it up will be a monster, but it is doable, and
will not require arable land.
It will require a LOT of water though, and feedstock
such as sewage or high phosphate water such is
present in the mississippi delta dead zone or the Salton Sea.
But as I have said before it will be "slow rolled" and too
late to avert some VERY painful effects of peak oil.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 10:54 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Ex_MislTech wrote:
Over population.
That phrase is more opinion than fact.
If you took the entire population of Earth and put it in Texas,
and restricted everyone to one story living, they would all
get about 1,100 sq. ft. a peice.
Wow....you sure have a lot to learn about population. I suggest doing a little homework before you post more on this. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Ex_MislTech wrote:
Our problem isn't population its poor use of resources.
We do not think sustainable.
Ok, so what happens when population catches up with wise use of resources?
Then what?
Ever hear of the law of diminishing returns? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:08 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Ex_MislTech wrote:
I still say though at some level some ppl have helped this situation along with the die off and are looking
forward to it, and wrote it in stone.
Looking forward to it????
They wrote no such thing. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:15 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Ex_MislTech wrote:
I see technological solutions, but I also see that they are being..
"slow rolled"
They will get here too late to keep a collapse from occuring
unless a major under taking is engaged immediately.
Get here too late? Another Cargo Cultist.
Even if they get here it's too late to keep a collapse from occuring.
By the time most people grasp we have a serious population problem, even if you could create a whole new earth with technology, you still only gain a one day reprieve.
Joined: Nov 25, 2006 Posts: 1361 Location: New York area
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:55 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
BigTex, I'm not saying you intended to come off that way, just that I could see where the guy was coming from. _________________ My PO Amazon store (shameless plug).
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
kublikhan wrote:
BigTex wrote:
To the point about solar panels and whether they constitute a "free lunch", I don't even think it's necessary to get to the theoretical argument about whether enough solar panels to meet our energy needs would damage the ecological balance of our habitat. To me, the very idea of being able to scale solar power to something that could even approach our current energy needs is comical.
BigTex, when I was talking about solar, I was referring to all possible sources of energy that are ultimately derived from the sun. Solar PV, Solar Thermal, Wind, Hydro, etc.
BigTex wrote:
But I'm certain we are going to have our alternative energy boom, which will then bust when people figure out just how poorly ALL of these technologies perform when compared to fossil fuels.
You should familiarize yourself with the EROEI of various power generation methods before making such statements. Hydro power has a better EROEI than coal. And as time goes on and technology improves, the EROEI of solar PV continues to improve. The opposite is happening for fossil fuels. The EROEI is continually getting worse as we are forced to go after the less desirable coal/oil.
EROEI
Yeah Hydro is good, I think Tidal Turbines in the Bay of Fundy
near Nova Scotia would help Eastern Canada and the
Eastern US alot as far as electric generation goes.
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