Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13133 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
MrBean wrote:
It would seem that powerdown and war for power are mutually exclusive?
Yep.
I don't think Monte is advocating war, I think he is saying there will be wars. There are wars now (for oil) and will probably be more in the future. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
Ludi wrote:
MrBean wrote:
It would seem that powerdown and war for power are mutually exclusive?
Yep.
I don't think Monte is advocating war, I think he is saying there will be wars. There are wars now (for oil) and will probably be more in the future.
I don't he is advocating war. I'm just still unclear what Monte means by "we" when saying "we will fight". I can't see how that "we" could include intentional powerdown communities. Those would be, by the definition, the "turn the other cheek" communities.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13133 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
MrBean wrote:
I can't see how that "we" could include intentional powerdown communities. Those would be, by the definition, the "turn the other cheek" communities.
Don't be so sure some of those folks won't want to protect their hard work from people who might want to take it.
See the many gun discussions in the Planning Forum. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:20 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
jdumars wrote:
MQ, as always, your ideas are very well spoken. And, I agree with you that technology is really the root of our problems and will not/cannot save us.
But when it comes to options, we must face a very terrible fact: we have become 100% dependent on technology for our survival as a species in the civilized world.
Very good post. Yes, we have become dependent upon technology because it was what allowed us to grow so colossal.
As I keep repeating from Catton...
"People continue to advocate further technological breakthroughs as the supposedly sure cure for carrying capacity deficits. The very idea that technology caused overshoot, and that it made us too colossal to endure, remains alien to too many minds for"de-colossalization" to be a really feasible alternative to literal die-off. There is a persistent drive to apply remedies that aggravate the problem."
And this he wrote 28 years ago when we might have had a chance to change our future. We were only 4 billion or so then.
Technology is only as good as the energy source behind it.
Your post tells us why there will be a die-off back to a sustainable level, and why, that level may be much lower than 2 to 3 billion.
The abundant world that existed before civilization no longer exists. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
MrBean wrote:
It would seem that powerdown and war for power are mutually exclusive?
Thus, the two camps. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
MrBean wrote:
I'm just still unclear what Monte means by "we" when saying "we will fight". I can't see how that "we" could include intentional powerdown communities. Those would be, by the definition, the "turn the other cheek" communities.
Then the ecovillages have no chance of survival. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:55 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
Monte, you really do "get it." Just because we turn away from something unpleasant doesn't mean it's not going to happen.
I kind of got it before... but now that I am actually wearing my fingers to the bone in the soil do I really get it. It's a pity that most people cannot or will not experience this. Unfortunately, what they'd take away from the experience is not a profound desire to change our course, but instead a strong desire to be in an air conditioned room with a cold beer.
I think about using chemicals every day. When the tropical fowl mites infested the place (you have not known unpleasant until you've had these things crawl in every orifice), I went down and bought some pyrethrin. There was literally no other choice, other than abandoning the cabin, which was not an option.
When the deer start eating all the beans, I think about hunting them down and killing them.
When the Japanese beetles went after stuff, I seriously thought about using poison.
I am not perfect. Not even close. But this experience has made me a better person. _________________ Dismantle globally, renew locally!
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
MonteQuest wrote:
MrBean wrote:
I'm just still unclear what Monte means by "we" when saying "we will fight". I can't see how that "we" could include intentional powerdown communities. Those would be, by the definition, the "turn the other cheek" communities.
Then the ecovillages have no chance of survival.
That may be so. But the difference I'm trying to outline is that if ecovillages become survivalist communities of military fortresses, then they are no more powerdown communities of the "paradigm shift" but just parts of the same old paradigm.
BTW Sami people still survive to this day, having never made war in their history (bombing Alta dam in Norway by few activists was "terrorism", not war ) and having faced all kinds of oppression from taxation by southeners to having been forced into christianity, their children taken away and forbidden to speak their native languege, their land stolen etc. They are tough people, tougher than we can even begin to imagine, not because they make war but because they don't.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
Peak oil is really an over population problem. We've had huge scientific advances through the oil age, but we haven't invented anything that can keep up with the exploding human population. It makes us feel uncomfortable to talk about over population because we like to feel as though we care about individual rights. Our population explosion has been fueled by oil, but also by the fact that war is much less common and has become a low casualty sport compared to what it used to be. In ages past, war often meant the death of millions. We fight very scientific wars these days. Using our technology, we can take out the command and control of a nation very quickly and leave the enemy defenseless with a minimum of casualties. An old natural population control mechanism; famine, has been almost eliminated when compared to the past. We live with the guiding principle that human life is sacred and should be saved at any cost. Again, that is a different view than past epochs where average people were generally considered useless and often found themselves enslaved or worse.
When we are deep post peak, will people still hold these expensive, noble ideals? _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
MrBean wrote:
That may be so. But the difference I'm trying to outline is that if ecovillages become survivalist communities of military fortresses, then they are no more powerdown communities of the "paradigm shift" but just parts of the same old paradigm..
Welcome to the ever changing reality of the 21st Century.
Ecovillages will be targets for those who did not prepare. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Nov 25, 2006 Posts: 1541 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
jdumars wrote:
And, I agree with you that technology is really the root of our problems
I disgaree. The root of our problems is in the way we think about the world. Not the use of technology. The use of technology is hard wired into us and we can no more give it up than fish can stop swimming.
jdumars wrote:
But when it comes to options, we must face a very terrible fact: we have become 100% dependent on technology for our survival as a species in the civilized world.
All humans everywhere are 100% dependent on technology. Besides speech & the ability for abstract thought it is the #1 thing that makes us human.
jdumars wrote:
This notion that we must join together and become communities of change, or whatever is completely misguided. Unless the other members of your community can be totally self-sufficient, it is absolutely doomed to failure.
Nonsense. Most community that have ever existed has depended on trade with others. The whole "100% self-sufficient" is impossible anyway. We're in a web of life. No system is "self"-sufficient.
jdumars wrote:
The reason people want a community is to continue the scourge of specialization. It's the only way people know how to live. But this is completely unsustainable in a small low/no-input, low-energy community.
Sorry, wrong again. Almost any society has specialization. Even civilization-haters' beloved aboriginal cultures have medicine men & tribal chiefs. I do agree that having the majority of citizens being able to do basic tasks like grow food & make tools would be ideal though. But specialization is hardly a curse.
jdumars wrote:
First, unless you have a LOT of very fertile land with good soil, and enough gasoline/diesel to prep it, you're done.
Second, even if you do have said land, if you don't know how to make it sustainable, you're done.
Got seeds? Got heirloom seeds? Got lucky enough to have rain at the right time? How's your back for carrying large buckets of water around?
What kind of silly fool would carry water on his back when he could set up an irrigation system (or canals) or at least lug water in a wheelbarrow.
jdumars wrote:
I can speak authoritatively on this, because I am doing it right now. And it is a total backbreaking, demoralizing, low-yield, maddening affair.
Sounds like you're doing it wrong.
jdumars wrote:
There are things you can do to fight these problems, but they ALL involve sucking the teet of technology and unsustainability.
So, what you're saying is that life without technology (except buckets of course) is "backbreaking, demoralizing, low-yield and maddening". So why are you doing it again??
jdumars wrote:
Unless you've done this, you have absolutely no idea what a truly post-peak world will be like. It will suck more ass than you can imagine.
Um, why do you believe post peak everyone will turn into Luddites? I mean some poor bastards have to be luddites because they're so poor and sucks for them but there is absolutely nothing stopping you from stocking up on a lifetime's supply of tools & equipment right now except your own belief system.
jdumars wrote:
If you have a community to do this work, it means less of the meager harvest goes around, because no one contributes as much to the production of calories as they take. We had 5 friends over one weekend to "help" us, and they actually set us back a day. They didn't know what anything looked like, they didn't know what to do and needed total direction. The "is this a weed?" question got asked about a million times. They were worse than useless.
Maybe you did a poor job of training them. Learning anything worth anything takes time you know. You really think you'll be better off alone?
jdumars wrote:
I was a doomer before, but for all the wrong reasons. Doing this, experiencing this has shown me that basically it's impossible to do without technology.
That's right. No civilization has ever existed without technology and none ever will. I could have told you that and saved you a lot of grief. If you really want to be sure though, try it again but without the bucket this time.
jdumars wrote:
Before civilization farked everything up, there was adequate wild food around. Birds, fish, game were everywhere.
And yet there was still war, greed & suffering. Some tribes (like the Bushmen) seemed to live pretty decent, happy lives. In some tribes however the leading cause of death for adult males was murder.
jdumars wrote:
People now cannot even comprehend the world that existed before civilization. It HAD to be that abundant for us to have ever made it, because if our ancestors lived in the world as it is today, they would have died.
What do you mean?
jdumars wrote:
We have stripped, polluted, corrupted everything. Only the harshest, most inhospitable places are still vaguely wild.
It is sad what we've done to the world but there's no going back now. No point in cursing the world we live in or trying to make a statement by refusing to use a plow. You have to accept the world you were born into.
jdumars wrote:
Once your eyes really open and you see things as they are, not how you want them to be, the picture that emerges is far too terrifying to process. I understand now why people do almost anything to avoid thinking about all this. I understand why so many diversions exist. Just last night, I was working past dusk in the field, which is a huge mistake, because that's when the Cottonmouths come out. Walking the quarter mile back to the cabin, there were two in the path. Can you imagine walking out there in the blackness of night with no light? Do you have any idea how long you'd last doing that on a regular basis? Well... what do you do in the middle of the night if something, or someone is out in your field stealing your crops?
Several years ago, someone threw a stick of dynamite into one of the ponds here and killed/stole all of the fish.
Whatever you take days/weeks/months/years to build and do can be undone in an instant by someone else with technology, or even nature herself. Technology is the only "edge" we have, and it will be used in the most ruthless, devastating ways you can think of. Your chances are very low, no matter what you do.
Horrible things happen all the time. Stop demoralizing yourself and others with this melodramatic stuff. People lose children, get abused, get robbed, raped, beaten, tricked & misled. Nature & other humans can screw up out of all but our lives (or life itself) but that's no reason to throw in the towel. Life is for those who persist in the face of hardship. One shouldn't be afraid to use every tool in one's arsenal to defend one's life & the life of loved ones. Hating technology is just a form of self-hatred. Homo sapiens sapiens are tool (technology) using creatures. No getting around that.
jdumars wrote:
If you are a lone wolf, you'll do fine until your technology fails you, or you meet another lone wolf.
If you're in a community, you'll do fine until your technology fails, or you meet a lone wolf.
What is a "lone wolf". And technology shouldn't fail (on a small scale) at least with intelligent planning and backups.
jdumars wrote:
I will continue to share as much useful information I can from this experiment, but the results are in. Even with 4 very fertile acres, without some small measures of technology, it is impossible to feed anyone more than maybe 10% of your calories. It's as simple as that. It's a net energy loser.
Again, you were probably doing it wrong. Likely didn't allow enough time. If you're using only a bucket to help you along (is drying & storing food "technology"?) I'd say 10% is pretty good.
I know a guy in Florida who gets nearly 75% of his calories from local sources (he eats mostly fruit so that's not too difficult).
I don't know much about your land or your ability to work but I'd be willing to bet if you improved your technique, weren't afraid of non-bucket technology & got some friends who were willing to be trained to help you could at least quadruple your net harvest. I could be wrong. Just a guess.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:41 pm Post subject: Re: Abandoning Cargoism & Embracing Our Options
nobodypanic wrote:
does this mean that cargosim isn't the beleif or use in technology to increase the carrying capacity over what would otherwise be the case?
in other words, can we say that cargosim is only the belief that you can perpetually raise the carrying capacity by technology?
Yes. Technology in the past did raise carrying capacity. "Modern Cargoism naively supposes this picture of the past must also be a valid picture of the future."
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