Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
By Zhang Shidong
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should avoid the dollar while commodities are the ``best investment'' for this year, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, made the comments in a speech in Shanghai today.
The dollar has slipped 6.7 percent against the euro and 5.2 percent versus the yen this year as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. economic recession. Oil prices in New York have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold futures jumped 41 percent.
Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers said. ``The best investments in 2008 are commodities and natural resources. Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything including seeds.''
Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
By Zhang Shidong
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should avoid the dollar while commodities are the ``best investment'' for this year, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, made the comments in a speech in Shanghai today.
The dollar has slipped 6.7 percent against the euro and 5.2 percent versus the yen this year as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. economic recession. Oil prices in New York have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold futures jumped 41 percent.
Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers said. ``The best investments in 2008 are commodities and natural resources. Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything including seeds.''
Let me fix the emphasis for you.
Pretty sure those earlier predictions were made when the speculative bubble was still in housing.
Oh, and speculators can't really cause shortages can they? I mean it is not that they actually want to own the seed when planting time comes, or for that matter, oil.
Sorry OF2, the cart goes behind the horse. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1140 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
But w_c, golly gee, I thought speculators and investors weren't supposed to have an effect on the commodities markets. You mean to tell me that if lots of people take Mr. Roger's advice and buy into commodities, that will have no effect on the price?
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:49 pm Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
OilFinder2 wrote:
But w_c, golly gee, I thought speculators and investors weren't supposed to have an effect on the commodities markets. You mean to tell me that if lots of people take Mr. Roger's advice and buy into commodities, that will have no effect on the price?
In case you haven't noticed, prices have been going up long before Jim Rogers opened his mouth.
Why don't you show us one of the charts you like to flash. You know the one where food production is barely keeping up with demand. Then well discuss the effect of the floods on midwest food production and the fact that we added something along the lines of 200k mouths to feed today.
Speculators chase rising prices, they do not instigate them.
You quote Rogers as a sign of something bad, but ignore what he has to say or his track record. He called gold @ 1000 an oz in april of 2006
when it was ~700 an oz. It then went into a sharp decline. How did that happen if he was driving a "bubble"? But then it went up because he was correct on the fundamentals.
People see the direction things are going and they invest accordingly. If I had the money, I would too. The tech bubble resulted because the world was buying a lot of tech and there were a lot of new things out there that might work. At some point it became overbought and the bubble grew and then burst. Because it ended in a bubble does not mean that there was not a real increase in demand initially.
The bubble burst when supply outgrew demand (and a lot of companies could not provide on their promises).
So the question remains, will the current high prices bring on more supply of food and oil and eventually burst a bubble? There can be different answers to that question (and I think we both know where the other stands). But if more supply of either come on-line it is going to be because higher prices, illicitied by a genuine manifestation of tight supply, brings on more production.
We have a tight supply, your own little graphs say as much. So prices are going up. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1140 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:49 pm Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
In fact, let's look at demand for gold over the past several years. Here's an earlier chart from the same source showing world demand for gold in 2004 and 2005:
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1821 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:53 pm Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
His agri-food predictions are very worrying.
Saw an interview with him maybe 2 months ago and he told the host, and I paraphrase "If I told you how unbelivably bullish I am on edible commodities, you would ask me to leave becasue it would sound mad".
Another way of translating that is; most people won't be eating nearly as much as they do today. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:57 pm Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
should we get back on topic with the focus of the article that you posted? food and natural resources? _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1140 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:02 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
What's wrong w_c, do you not want to admit that the price of something can skyrocket even when there's no shortage of it? I guess there must have been a big shortage of gold around 1980. Peak Gold! And it looks like we're hitting Peak Gold again! _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1821 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:04 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
Doesn't matter what the reason is.
If food prices start doubling or trippling, most people will be eating less even if the shop shelves are full. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1531 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:05 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
OilFinder2 wrote:
What's wrong w_c, do you not want to admit that the price of something can skyrocket even when there's no shortage of it? I guess there must have been a big shortage of gold around 1980. Peak Gold! And it looks like we're hitting Peak Gold again!
Please post at every forum you can find that it is all about speculation and that the bubble will burst and then commodity prices will all be cheap again. PLease please do this work. We need people to be asleep as long as possible. You would do us a service to stave off the panic so I can get out and prep more. Thank you Oilfinder2!!
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1821 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:27 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
Barclays are among the latest to point the finger at "the fed".
Quote:
US central bank accused of unleashing an inflation shock that will rock financial markets, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".
"We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."
Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.
_________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:58 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
oilfinder is turning into the perennial troll...
Gold is a store of value irrespective of physical demand in which gold is being consumed to fashion jewlery or to turn it into electrical components.
The reference currency is being debased, so the sticker price of gold rises. Throw in the psychological factor of inflation fears and the price increase outpaces the actual inflation.
It always has been that way with gold.
On the other hand, grain and oil are real commodities with actual physical shortages.
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:35 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
troll food deleted _________________ "Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4412 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:45 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
I'll post this here. I like OF2. I hope he can convince as many as possible that the Titanic isn't sinking. I really want the food to stay on the grocery store shelves! OF2 probably has 8 chest freezers full, 2000 pounds of rice, lubes, plastic trinkets...
Ok... Just read this.
Quote:
A large aluminium smelter consumes as much electricity as a city, and a single furnace, which is about the size of a lorry, uses enough power for 1,000 homes but produces only about three tonnes of metal a day. Anglesey Aluminium in Wales is Britain's biggest single consumer of electricity.
Analysts forecast that the aluminium price will hit $4,000 a tonne in the next couple of years. The metal was trading at $2,900 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange last week, up 50 per cent in two years. Power costs have risen by about 50 per cent for the industry in the past five years and are expected to rise further as oil and gas prices continue to rise.
Pretty soon the masses will be out picking up pop cans. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
Totally agree with Rodgers on this one! _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
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