New Zealand's Economy Contracting- Recession Looming

Graeme

Drifter, It should be no surprise that NZ is part of the world economy hence my interest in this forum. Everyone is affected by high energy costs. In NZ's case, there are other factors at work some of which you've pointed out in the article you posted. But the main reason is a cut in exports of dairy products. Note also that NZ is likely to be the first country to go into recession.

New Zealand could be the first into recession

cipi604

Yeah, NZ it's a good choice for a doomer, but you have to stick to the technology too, not just farming.

Graeme

I was always in the peak oil camp. I tried to warn our Minister of Energy on two occasions about peak oil. They take their advice from the IEA. Now even the IEA are shifting their position toward ours. Perhaps the IEA staff have been viewing this site, who knows.

I am especially interested in alternative energy because this is ultimately the way that everybody will have to go. I have posted a lot of stories about renewable energy even though some here don't think it will make much difference. We will see!

Thanks for your assessment about how NZ will fair post-peak. I also think the US will fair reasonably well also because of your considerable technical and business expertise! California seems to be leading the way. They have made so much progress lately that I think that their policies may well be adopted nationwide and possibly worldwide. Of course, there is always the potential for setbacks and disasters. I think we are all hoping the best outcome.
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.

americandream

kokoda · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2006 Posts: 449

I still think NZ will get through this better than a host of other countries.

I expect the US to fall hard.

Tyler_JC

New Zealand's fiscal imbalance is greater than America's imbalance on a %/GDP basis.

The current account deficit is in the neighborhood of 8-10%. That's a scary position to be in for a country without a lot of natural resources available for export.

It was only a matter of time before New Zealand's economy consumer economy contracted back to equilibrium.

Never forget that you cannot consume more than you produce in the long term.*

*unless you have the magic money-creating machine of the US Treasury Department.
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lowem

Only down 0.3%? That's almost nothing, Singapore is in stagflation right now with exports falling the most in 17 months, pharmaceutical shipments dropped 48.5%, electronics down 8.5% - the 16th consecutive drop. And inflation at 26-year highs.

I'm trying to figure out which country is going to lead the world into global hyperstagflation, if there's such a word. "The prize" goes to the country with the economy that is contracting at the fastest rate with inflation rising at the highest rate.

That'll be one hell of a bind.

Then we'll sit back and see how things unfold (provided you're not in *that* prize-winning hyperstagflationary country!).
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anagami

By definition, a recession isn't that bad. A contracting economy can be healthy... and great for the environment. If it includes inflation; making poorer does that believe money has any value... then it's starts to get ugly.

Got Gold?

lowem

Yes, Zimbabwe has got to be the current prize winner, with a nearly inexistent economy and 4 million percent hyperinflation.

Well. Second prize then? Laughing

I'm looking at Asian countries next to see who may be the next "winner". It's just that in this "game", nobody really wins ...
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DoomWarrior

New Zealand Manufacturing Industry Contracts for Third Time in Four Months

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWjLUKY2OPlA&refer=home

idiom

Actually, New Zealand is adding roading taxes. Hopefully getting to a recession early means we power down early, while we can.

NZ is ~80% renewably powered. Its the bit of Coal at the top and the trucks and cars that need to feel pain ahead of time.