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Buggy
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 23, 2008
Posts: 149
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 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:06 pm Post subject: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| What will the impact be on the oil prices when Iraq is back up and pumping at capacity? |
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pstarr
Expert
Joined: Sep 27, 2004
Posts: 7138
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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Since it will go to the victors, us, you will be back in your SUV and sittin' high in the driver's seat. Ain't life grand?
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misterno
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 07, 2007
Posts: 312
Location: Houston, TX
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| with all the shootings and bombs going off, I don't see that in the near future. |
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burtonridr
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 763
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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Nothing......
Unless the media portraits it as some huge feat and that oil is back to better than normal supplies(which I'm sure they will). This will spark a little more consumer confidence and up trading on wall street until they realize it didnt really do a thing...
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Tired of high gas prices?  Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
Peak Oil Blog = http://getroasted.wordpress.com |
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jlw61
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 03, 2007
Posts: 637
Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Buggy wrote: | | What will the impact be on the oil prices when Iraq is back up and pumping at capacity? |
That depends on how soon and in what mood the oil majors are to bring that oil into the market. Also, it depends on how long they can keep the lines pumping without a break caused by a well placed bomb. And finally, it depends on how fast the North Slope, Mexico, Russia et al continue down the depletion curve.
As far as how much, if they can ramp up a few million barrels a day by October, we might see something positive, however if they can only ramp up an extra 100k bpd each month, I don't know it would keep up with possible depletion.
Finally, it all depends on how much OPEC is willing to pump. If I am receiving adequate US dollars to do what I want, why would I want to pump more to lower the price and accept more US dollars that may become worth even less the longer I held on to them?
The oil producing nations have less reason to sell as much as they can pump and more reason to just pump enough to keep the dogs of war at bay. Bleeding the US dry slowly will do the same job as cutting off the oil outright and has the added benifits of lining your pockets and preventing Uncle Sam from sending in the marines.
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When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking |
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Dreamtwister
Fission
Joined: Feb 06, 2006
Posts: 2267
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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I don't know, but I'll be sure to tell my great grandchildren to come back here and fill you in on the results. Assuming they haven't ripped out the copper wiring to buy cabbage.
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The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche |
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Pops
Moderator
Joined: Apr 03, 2004
Posts: 6967
Location: My Grandkids' Farm
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Buggy wrote: | | What will the impact be on the oil prices when Iraq is back up and pumping at capacity? |
Quit whistling past the graveyard Buggy.
If not Iraq, then ANWAR?
IT is gonna happen, what are you doing?
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burtonridr
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 763
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:31 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Pops wrote: |
If not Iraq, then ANWAR?
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Its so pathetic that the general public thinks the solution is MORE oil....
_________________
Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
Peak Oil Blog = http://getroasted.wordpress.com |
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killJOY
Fission
Joined: Feb 21, 2005
Posts: 2510
Location: ^NNE^
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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First, they'll discover that Irak has half the oil Sodom Hussayn said it has.
Second, they'll realize the best fields have been ruined through neglect, reinjection, overproduction, etc.
Third, they'll realize that it wouldn't make a bit of difference anyway, given rising population demands + depletion rates in existing fields.
In short, we're farked. |
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Pops
Moderator
Joined: Apr 03, 2004
Posts: 6967
Location: My Grandkids' Farm
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| burtonridr wrote: | | Pops wrote: |
If not Iraq, then ANWAR?
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Its so pathetic that the general public thinks the solution is MORE oil.... |
Exactly my point.
So what are you doing to separate yourself from that public?
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Buggy
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 23, 2008
Posts: 149
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Pops wrote: | | burtonridr wrote: | | Pops wrote: |
If not Iraq, then ANWAR?
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Its so pathetic that the general public thinks the solution is MORE oil.... |
Exactly my point.
So what are you doing to separate yourself from that public? |
Some good answers so far. I'm trying to stay middle of the road between doom and whistling past the graveyard. My wife hates when I whistle.
As far as what I'm doing, except for a house payment, which I really hate, I just got completely debt free. I am running and exercising. I ran seven miles on Thursday but I've gotten a chest cold. I think I breathed in a bug. I put together a firewood hut, started a garden and have about a month's worth of food stocked up. None of this, if we go worst case scenerio will be enough. |
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Pops
Moderator
Joined: Apr 03, 2004
Posts: 6967
Location: My Grandkids' Farm
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:58 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Buggy wrote: | | As far as what I'm doing, except for a house payment, which I really hate, I just got completely debt free. |
There ya go! 
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Buggy
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 23, 2008
Posts: 149
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Pops wrote: | | Buggy wrote: | | As far as what I'm doing, except for a house payment, which I really hate, I just got completely debt free. |
There ya go! |
Oh, and much to my family's dismay, no central air this summer. Yes, I am mean. |
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burtonridr
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 763
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Buggy wrote: | | Pops wrote: | | Buggy wrote: | | As far as what I'm doing, except for a house payment, which I really hate, I just got completely debt free. |
There ya go! |
Oh, and much to my family's dismay, no central air this summer. Yes, I am mean. |
You sound exactly like me
I'm doing other things to cool my house.
I'm installing a mist system on the whole western facing portion of my house, including around my back patio.
I installed roll up shades at the western side of my back patio(the front of my house face east and looks like a monopoly house piece)
I'm installing roll up shades over the outside of the two remaining western facing windows.
Buying 2 new window fans to turn on each night and cool the house. Then take them down during the day and close up the windows.
Then I'm installing a solar powered attic fan, it will just turn on when the sun hits the panel, turn off when the sun doesnt hit the solar panel.
Then there are a few things I still need to seal up with weather stripping, caulk and expanding foam.
Congrats on becoming debt free!
I was $13,700 in debt about 6 months ago. Through selling crap I didnt need and paying them down I'm down to $2,700. Just a little more to go! Then there is the house 
Plus I only use 25% as much fuel as I use to last year.
_________________
Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
Peak Oil Blog = http://getroasted.wordpress.com |
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cualcrees
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 28, 2008
Posts: 102
Location: Leon, Gto. Mexico
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:20 pm Post subject: Re: What happens when Iraq is back? |
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| Maybe by the time Iraq is back online, Iran won't be... Those neocons are sure working on it! |
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