Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:57 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
BlinkBlink wrote:
I don't think it matters which happens first or which drives the other. GDP = Oil Consumption. When the economy goes fast we use more oil when the economy goes slow we use less. You want to grow the economy you need more oil.
Course it does. If oil consumption drives GDP then w/o oil we can't have GDP, otoh if GDP drives oil consumption, then w/o oil we can still have GDP.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
pstarr wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Do you really believe you and every other American will have access to their acre? When our just-in-time food delivery and inventory system breaks down? When there is little if any storage on site at supermarkets? When a few people have nothing and want your acre?
How is technology going to solve this dilemma?
It starts with markets and the enormous amount of surplus capacity in petroleum simply because we waste so much. Bidding on food servicing will go far higher than bidding on imported shoes. I don't know how you imagine this doomer fantasyland to materialize.
After that there are numerous petroleum alternatives, from CTL to nuclear hydrogen.
There is no waste, there is no surplus capacity in our food production, either in arable land or food production.
There is no wasted energy. Food is processed (canned, frozen, dried, and preserved) with energy to save more energy from refrigeration. Fresh food is refrigerated with enormous energy.
Without energy the processed food would not be made.
Without energy the fresh food would not make it to your home.
People around the world as short of food because we are exceeding the capacity of the earth to grow more.
Shoes or food? Do you know that folks ate their shoes during the Stalingrad siege?
Oh I forgot. If you didn't have the electricity to post to this forum you would just die.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Do you really believe you and every other American will have access to their acre? When our just-in-time food delivery and inventory system breaks down? When there is little if any storage on site at supermarkets? When a few people have nothing and want your acre?
How is technology going to solve this dilemma?
It starts with markets and the enormous amount of surplus capacity in petroleum simply because we waste so much. Bidding on food servicing will go far higher than bidding on imported shoes. I don't know how you imagine this doomer fantasyland to materialize.
After that there are numerous petroleum alternatives, from CTL to nuclear hydrogen.
There is no waste, there is no surplus capacity in our food production, either in arable land or food production.
There is no wasted energy. Food is processed (canned, frozen, dried, and preserved) with energy to save more energy from refrigeration. Fresh food is refrigerated with enormous energy.
Without energy the processed food would not be made.
Without energy the fresh food would not make it to your home.
People around the world as short of food because we are exceeding the capacity of the earth to grow more.
Shoes or food? Do you know that folks ate their shoes during the Stalingrad siege?
Oh I forgot. If you didn't have the electricity to post to this forum you would just die.
No, I would surely miss the internet but it wouldn't really impact my life much. I imagine the electricity saved by turning it off would amount to less than a hill of beans. On the other hand, a diesel tractor engine uses 100,000 watts equivalent. That loss would be serious. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 2:53 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
pstarr wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Do you really believe you and every other American will have access to their acre? When our just-in-time food delivery and inventory system breaks down? When there is little if any storage on site at supermarkets? When a few people have nothing and want your acre?
How is technology going to solve this dilemma?
It starts with markets and the enormous amount of surplus capacity in petroleum simply because we waste so much. Bidding on food servicing will go far higher than bidding on imported shoes. I don't know how you imagine this doomer fantasyland to materialize.
After that there are numerous petroleum alternatives, from CTL to nuclear hydrogen.
There is no waste, there is no surplus capacity in our food production, either in arable land or food production.
There is no wasted energy. Food is processed (canned, frozen, dried, and preserved) with energy to save more energy from refrigeration. Fresh food is refrigerated with enormous energy.
Without energy the processed food would not be made.
Without energy the fresh food would not make it to your home.
People around the world as short of food because we are exceeding the capacity of the earth to grow more.
Shoes or food? Do you know that folks ate their shoes during the Stalingrad siege?
Oh I forgot. If you didn't have the electricity to post to this forum you would just die.
No, I would surely miss the internet but it wouldn't really impact my life much. I imagine the electricity saved by turning it off would amount to less than a hill of beans. On the other hand, a diesel tractor engine uses 100,000 watts equivalent. That loss would be serious.
And you can make up for that by getting just a few drivers to carpool or trade in their SUVs. We waste an enormous amount, and theres plenty of slack before you run into serious problems.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 874 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
pstarr wrote:
I would surely miss the internet but it wouldn't really impact my life much. I imagine the electricity saved by turning it off would amount to less than a hill of beans.
Gee, with the millions of computers, monitors, printers, routers, gadgets, dooheekeys, etc, I imagine it's a pretty substantial hill of beans.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:24 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Do you really believe you and every other American will have access to their acre? When our just-in-time food delivery and inventory system breaks down? When there is little if any storage on site at supermarkets? When a few people have nothing and want your acre?
How is technology going to solve this dilemma?
It starts with markets and the enormous amount of surplus capacity in petroleum simply because we waste so much. Bidding on food servicing will go far higher than bidding on imported shoes. I don't know how you imagine this doomer fantasyland to materialize.
After that there are numerous petroleum alternatives, from CTL to nuclear hydrogen.
There is no waste, there is no surplus capacity in our food production, either in arable land or food production.
There is no wasted energy. Food is processed (canned, frozen, dried, and preserved) with energy to save more energy from refrigeration. Fresh food is refrigerated with enormous energy.
Without energy the processed food would not be made.
Without energy the fresh food would not make it to your home.
People around the world as short of food because we are exceeding the capacity of the earth to grow more.
Shoes or food? Do you know that folks ate their shoes during the Stalingrad siege?
Oh I forgot. If you didn't have the electricity to post to this forum you would just die.
No, I would surely miss the internet but it wouldn't really impact my life much. I imagine the electricity saved by turning it off would amount to less than a hill of beans. On the other hand, a diesel tractor engine uses 100,000 watts equivalent. That loss would be serious.
And you can make up for that by getting just a few drivers to carpool or trade in their SUVs. We waste an enormous amount, and theres plenty of slack before you run into serious problems.
Have you ever actually carpooled? It often takes more not less fuel. You drive around the neighborhood to collect someone, and then you drive around the city to deposit them. My wife gave it up after complaining about the waste of gas.
But that is an aside. I would answer that YES, technology could help carpooling become effective. I imagine a GPS-enabled internet-based carpool dispatch system. But that would mean driving with strangers. OH GOD THE HORROR
On the other hand we could commute 3rd-world style _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
VMarcHart wrote:
pstarr wrote:
I would surely miss the internet but it wouldn't really impact my life much. I imagine the electricity saved by turning it off would amount to less than a hill of beans.
Gee, with the millions of computers, monitors, printers, routers, gadgets, dooheekeys, etc, I imagine it's a pretty substantial hill of beans.
Maybe a several thousand tractors, a few combines and an entire Walmart-parking lot full of pickup trucks. What you'd in an average Indiana county. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
pstarr wrote:
VMarcHart wrote:
pstarr wrote:
I would surely miss the internet but it wouldn't really impact my life much. I imagine the electricity saved by turning it off would amount to less than a hill of beans.
Gee, with the millions of computers, monitors, printers, routers, gadgets, dooheekeys, etc, I imagine it's a pretty substantial hill of beans.
Maybe a several thousand tractors, a few combines and an entire Walmart-parking lot full of pickup trucks. What you'd in an average Indiana county.
If 100 million housholds dropped 1 kilowatt of consumption thats a million tractors. I didn't know Indiana counties used that many of them.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1985 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:37 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
BlinkBlink wrote:
I don't think it matters which happens first or which drives the other. GDP = Oil Consumption. When the economy goes fast we use more oil when the economy goes slow we use less. You want to grow the economy you need more oil.
Course it does. If oil consumption drives GDP then w/o oil we can't have GDP, otoh if GDP drives oil consumption, then w/o oil we can still have GDP.
Illogical.
How so?
Because, if GDP drives oil consumption but there is no oil, then GDP will stall, since it won't have any oil to drive.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:55 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
BlinkBlink wrote:
I don't think it matters which happens first or which drives the other. GDP = Oil Consumption. When the economy goes fast we use more oil when the economy goes slow we use less. You want to grow the economy you need more oil.
Course it does. If oil consumption drives GDP then w/o oil we can't have GDP, otoh if GDP drives oil consumption, then w/o oil we can still have GDP.
Illogical.
How so?
Because, if GDP drives oil consumption but there is no oil, then GDP will stall, since it won't have any oil to drive.
Clearly GDP doesn't drive only oil consumption, and I never claimed it did, it also drives consumption/use of other goods, so even w/o oil, it'll still drive other venues. Maybe even renewables/energy efficient stuff. So, what part was illogical again? _________________
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote:
In fact, according to you graph, from 1979 to 1983, oil consumption dropped ~23-24% while GDP grew ~2-3% percent, so clearly it's not that oil consumption drives the economy, and more likely that the economy drives oil consumption.
That drop was the result of industry efficiency gains and not from less car use.
Do you have any proof of this?
Common knowledge. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
I did, and there is nothing to validate your claims, the first link made no mention of fossil fuels,
Like it needs to? What energy source created and supported industrialization and urbanization if not fossil fuels?
Wood? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
kublikhan wrote:
What is your estimated carrying capacity of the US post peak?
Depends upon the rate of oil decline, the ramp up of sustainable systems, and the standard of living.
Quote:
Depletion of soil, water, and fuel at a much faster rate than any of these can be replenished suggests that the carrying capacity of the United States already has been exceeded. David and Marcia Pimentel (1991) of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, take these three factors into account to estimate that, at a standard of living only slightly lower than is enjoyed today, the sustainable population size for the United States is less than half its present number. Beyond this, we abuse the carrying capacity and should expect sudden shocks that will massively drive down the standard of living.
The Pimentels embrace the desirability and potential for a transition to clean, renewable energy sources as substitute for most uses of oil. The very breadth of their approach leads to their addressing all present and potential energy sources. They find:
Evaluating land, energy, and water, the Pimentels conclude that the United States is rapidly depleting its nonrenewable or very slowly renewable resources and overwhelming the capacity of the environment to neutralize wastes. The present level of resource use is probably unsustainable in even the minimal, physical sense. If population increase and the present per capita use of resources persist, a crash becomes likely.
The Pimentels do, however, offer two alternate scenarios. Either one of them is stable and sustainable. They differ only in population size and standard of living. Both scenarios envision the United States moving to a solar-energy-based economy, that is, to total replacement of our current fossil-fuel energy dependence. Solar energy is a renewable, steady stream, so it meets a key criterion for sustainability. From renewable sources alone, however, only one-fifth to one-half of the present level of energy use would be available. To maintain a standard of living only slightly lower than we enjoy today, population size would need to decline to about 100 million people. Others, more sanguine, peg the U.S. carrying capacity at a higher level. Economist Robert Costanza of the Marine Biological Institute (University of Maryland) and editor of Ecological Economics thinks the carrying capacity is closer to being 150 million persons (Carrying Capacity, 1991).
This is if we move to a total solar-energy-base-economy. If we can't or don't, obviously, much much less than 100 million.
Quote:
ince carrying capacity is determined by it's weakest link, what is the weakest link in the US?
Energy.
Quote:
What do you estimate the unemployment rate to be?
I have no idea. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:48 pm Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
MrBean wrote:
You claim that PO will mean DMT dynamics (stage three and four) becoming obsolete, without exception. Your claim is contrary to observable facts, so who is in denial?
Your grasp of DMT is so poorly lacking, it is hard to know where to start.
What is going on in Cuba is not DMT as modeled.
Without exception? I never said anything of the sort.
I said the economic development that caused DMT in industrialized countries to result in a lowered fertility rate, as modeled, isn't going to happen. The UN projections say they are.
The observable facts are that the population growth rate is now rising and no longer declining from a low of 1.14 in 2004 to 1.16 in 2008. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
So, what part was illogical again? 
