How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:13 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
MonteQuest wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
What is your estimated carrying capacity of the US post peak?
Depends upon the rate of oil decline, the ramp up of sustainable systems, and the standard of living.
What do you project as the most likely range of oil decline, after factoring in new projects coming online?
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
The Pimentels do, however, offer two alternate scenarios. Either one of them is stable and sustainable. They differ only in population size and standard of living. Both scenarios envision the United States moving to a solar-energy-based economy, that is, to total replacement of our current fossil-fuel energy dependence. Solar energy is a renewable, steady stream, so it meets a key criterion for sustainability. From renewable sources alone, however, only one-fifth to one-half of the present level of energy use would be available. To maintain a standard of living only slightly lower than we enjoy today, population size would need to decline to about 100 million people. Others, more sanguine, peg the U.S. carrying capacity at a higher level. Economist Robert Costanza of the Marine Biological Institute (University of Maryland) and editor of Ecological Economics thinks the carrying capacity is closer to being 150 million persons (Carrying Capacity, 1991).
But why are you using figures that try to match the current American standard of living? Compared to the world average it is apocryphal. Why not assume it is the standard of living that will fall to one third of it's present value(or less) instead of assuming the population will fall to 1/3rd it's present value? _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Last edited by kublikhan on Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:33 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:20 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote:
In fact, according to you graph, from 1979 to 1983, oil consumption dropped ~23-24% while GDP grew ~2-3% percent, so clearly it's not that oil consumption drives the economy, and more likely that the economy drives oil consumption.
That drop was the result of industry efficiency gains and not from less car use.
Do you have any proof of this?
Common knowledge.
Proof or I call BS! Not that I'm doubting you. Anyone can say anything and claim it's "Common knowledge." but that doesn't make anything said by anyone a valid claim. _________________
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:24 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote:
I did, and there is nothing to validate your claims, the first link made no mention of fossil fuels,
Like it needs to?
Any claims meant to be taken seriously as rigorous and logical need to provide reasonable evidence as well as logical reasoning IMO. Like I said before, no one's forcing you to back your statements with reasonable evidence and/or logic, and so far you haven't. If you feel like doing so, feel free. That being said, given your track record, both in this post and in others, it seems you have no desire for logic, only sensationalist claims. _________________
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1952 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:30 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
If oil consumption drives GDP then w/o oil we can't have GDP, otoh if GDP drives oil consumption, then w/o oil we can still have GDP. Clearly GDP doesn't drive only oil consumption, and I never claimed it did, it also drives consumption/use of other goods, so even w/o oil, it'll still drive other venues.
Then you need to say what it drives, how it drives it and how it could drive alternatives to oil (since the premise was that there is no oil) before you can claim what you claimed.
yesplease wrote:
So, what part was illogical again?
Apart from your smiley? This: "If oil consumption drives GDP then w/o oil we can't have GDP, otoh if GDP drives oil consumption, then w/o oil we can still have GDP." If you claim the latter, you'll have to prove it.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1952 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:38 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
that doesn't make anything said by anyone a valid claim.
Indeed not, yesplease. Of course, anyone can believe anything they want and anyone can demand proof before accepting something, and factoring it into their planning.
But if something sounds reasonable, it could well be reasonable. Unequivocal proof may not be possible with a lot of this stuff. So how should one approach these subjects, which could have a profound effect on you and yours?
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:35 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
If oil consumption drives GDP then w/o oil we can't have GDP, otoh if GDP drives oil consumption, then w/o oil we can still have GDP. Clearly GDP doesn't drive only oil consumption, and I never claimed it did, it also drives consumption/use of other goods, so even w/o oil, it'll still drive other venues.
Then you need to say what it drives, how it drives it and how it could drive alternatives to oil (since the premise was that there is no oil) before you can claim what you claimed.
GDP drives, so to speak, what it measures as per it's definition by the usual economic means, again from the definition, and as an example I suppose spending wealth on a velomobile or other efficient vehicle that doesn't need a whole lot of oil in it's construction as well as minimal amounts/none of petroleum's refined products in it's operation. Clearly it isn't going to be strictly that the economy/GDP drives oil consumption, since they both influence each other to some degree, just that according to the data it appears the trend is that while oil is tied to GDP for the most part, GDP isn't tied to oil for the most part. Along the same lines, this isn't a proof, just observation of trends.
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
So, what part was illogical again?
Apart from your smiley? This: "If oil consumption drives GDP then w/o oil we can't have GDP, otoh if GDP drives oil consumption, then w/o oil we can still have GDP." If you claim the latter, you'll have to prove it.
It's actually an axiom, which I figured you would already be familiar w/, not a proof so to speak, as noted by the If suchansuch, then suchandsuch bit. Not a whole lot to to prove there. _________________
Professor Membrane wrote:
Not now son! I'm making...TOAST!
Last edited by yesplease on Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:48 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:43 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
that doesn't make anything said by anyone a valid claim.
But if something sounds reasonable, it could well be reasonable. Unequivocal proof may not be possible with a lot of this stuff. So how should one approach these subjects, which could have a profound effect on you and yours
I don't think anyone's looking for unequivocal proof. That being said, absolute statements, such as...
MonteQuest wrote:
I said that the economic growth and the subsequent rise in the standard of living, that developed industrialized countries have experienced over the last 40 years via cheap, readily available fossil fuels, which resulted in a drop in fertility, is not going to happen in the developing countries as fossil fuels decline.
MonteQuest wrote:
The economic growth isn't going to happen, thus the fertility rate isn't going to decline...except due to overshoot collapse.
Are silly when there is a recent example that clearly contradicts the statements made.
That being said, as trends go, it may be that the UN projections are off, but even in that case, the poster didn't state they thought the trends were going to be wrong overall but that some areas could experience atypical changes, they stated in absolute terms specific conditions that according to them will be met regarding said trends, that are currently contradicted by observed behavior. Given their track record of either misunderstanding or deliberately misrepresenting different pieces of information, I tend to be critical of what certain posters on this site claim. _________________
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1952 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:04 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
Given their track record of either misunderstanding or deliberately misrepresenting different pieces of information, I tend to be critical of what certain posters on this site claim.
As I've said before, you shouldn't take things so literally all of the time. It often seems that your only concern on these forums is to score a grammatical or rational point, divorced from the subjects being discussed.
Do you think technology will solve peak oil in the end?
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 6:06 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
MonteQuest wrote:
MrBean wrote:
You claim that PO will mean DMT dynamics (stage three and four) becoming obsolete, without exception. Your claim is contrary to observable facts, so who is in denial?
What is going on in Cuba is not DMT as modeled.
It is and is not. Population curve of Cuba fits DMT model perfectly, but not the stated causalities of the most basic version, that of leaving aside the social factors.
Quote:
Without exception? I never said anything of the sort.
I said the economic development that caused DMT in industrialized countries to result in a lowered fertility rate, as modeled, isn't going to happen. The UN projections say they are.
You said:
"I said that the economic growth and the subsequent rise in the standard of living, that developed industrialized countries have experienced over the last 40 years via cheap, readily available fossil fuels, which resulted in a drop in fertility, is not going to happen in the developing countries as fossil fuels decline."
OK, this could be interpreted in two ways:
1) Post peak, the economic growth is not going to happen.
Fair enough.
2) Post peak, the drop in fertility is not going to happen in any developing country.
Cuba etc. give contrary evidence to this claim.
Conclusion: scientifically, to be a sound and not a falcified theory DMT and its model of causative explanations need to be revised to account for Cuba and other anomalies to the basic model.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:27 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
kublikhan wrote:
What do you project as the most likely range of oil decline, after factoring in new projects coming online?
I have no idea. No one does really.
The EIA just reported that existing fields are declining at 5.2%/yr up from 4% last year.
Quote:
But why are you using figures that try to match the current American standard of living? Compared to the world average it is apocryphal. Why not assume it is the standard of living that will fall to one third of it's present value(or less) instead of assuming the population will fall to 1/3rd it's present value?
They are not my figures. Look at the metrics used. What it says is that we cannot maintain 300 million even if we switched to total solar at a slightly less standard of living.
How do you propose we cut everything by 30% across the board?
A recent study by two physicists said that a 25% cut would be eclipsed by population growth alone in 13 years.
And why not assume the SOL will fall as opposed to the population falling?
Because we are in overshoot and overshoot populations inevitably crash.
We have no such plan B, nor would ever entertain one until too late to make a difference. By the time enough people were on board...the pond would be covered. See video.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:29 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
Proof or I call BS!
I could care less. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:33 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
yesplease wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote:
I did, and there is nothing to validate your claims, the first link made no mention of fossil fuels,
Like it needs to?
Any claims meant to be taken seriously as rigorous and logical need to provide reasonable evidence as well as logical reasoning IMO. Like I said before, no one's forcing you to back your statements with reasonable evidence and/or logic, and so far you haven't. If you feel like doing so, feel free. That being said, given your track record, both in this post and in others, it seems you have no desire for logic, only sensationalist claims.
Love how you ignore the question:
"Like it needs to? What energy source created and supported industrialization and urbanization if not fossil fuels?
Wood?"
I know of no one, besides you, who needs proof that fossil fuels were the energy source behind the industrialization of developed countries. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:41 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
MrBean wrote:
You said:
"I said that the economic growth and the subsequent rise in the standard of living, that developed industrialized countries have experienced over the last 40 years via cheap, readily available fossil fuels, which resulted in a drop in fertility, is not going to happen in the developing countries as fossil fuels decline."
Yep. And I'm sticking to it. And as the the world growth rate is rising and not declining as it has been, so far I am right.
Time will tell.
PS.
Quote:
2) Post peak, the drop in fertility is not going to happen in any developing country.
Cuba etc. give contrary evidence to this claim.
Cuba is not a "developing" country. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End
A number of years ago I talked to an old lady who lived through the flu epidemic of 1917-1918. In the small East Texas town where she lived over a fourth of the population died. I asked, "How did the rest of you survive?" She said, "Most everybody knew how to be a blacksmith, grow their own food, make clothes, and all the rest."
Now most everybody knows how to operate a computer.
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Not that I'm doubting you. 
Anyone can say anything and claim it's "Common knowledge." but that doesn't make anything said by anyone a valid claim.
