How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 2:51 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Bas wrote:
comparing the sattelite image for june 30th 2008 with june 30th 2007 (here) has me thinking there is a good chance we will dodge the bullet of a completely melted north pole this year; things simply look better this year than the same time last year, let's hope it holds up! (not that it matters much, it'll melt, if not this or next year, it will be the year after that)
It is looking that way, though there's still plenty of time for much more melting. The latest image isn't showing as much red as recent images, which is likely more down to atmospheric conditions than returning of the ice... The webcam image did show some weather around that time.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:07 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Zeeea wrote:
do you know what the internal temperature was this time last year ?
They have some archived images from last year, though not for every date. Here are a the nearest on both sides of todays date:
EDIT: For comparison, here is a shot from yesterday afternoon (20080701):
The temperature had been warmer earlier in the day, but that's a better quality photo probably due to the low humidity.
Last edited by sjn on Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:41 pm; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
What a difference a day makes:
As I mentioned above, day-to-day flucuations like this are due to atmospheric conditions and other sources of error. The 20080630 image was quite anomalous with respect to the exent of 50%-60% ice concentration. 20080701 brings things back on trend. Notice how close the red area is getting to the pole...
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Quote:
It is looking that way, though there's still plenty of time for much more melting.
This year it is the end game, we could have a near normal year, but come August when normally the melt cycle would hit a lot of multi year ice, the just won't be much. Tune in then.
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 1179 Location: Richmond, VA, Pale Blue Dot
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:01 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
xironman wrote:
Quote:
It is looking that way, though there's still plenty of time for much more melting.
This year it is the end game, we could have a near normal year, but come August when normally the melt cycle would hit a lot of multi year ice, the just won't be much. Tune in then.
This is a major point. Sea ice extent is defined as how much area it's covering. But if you don't look at the volume, then you can't really know how long it's going to last. It used to be that you would have near 100% ice coverage on july 1 because multi year ice is 3-1x meters thick. Now, as you can see, there is break up early on and then it melts really fast in July and August because it's only a meter thick. It probably won't all melt just because there is a lot of thermal inertia but I'll be surprised if there's a lot of ice left in late August - early September. _________________ "If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes
"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3669 Location: over here
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
sjn wrote:
Greg, it looks like it's just melting differently this year. The opposite side of the Arctic basin going first.
that may very well be the case. Perhaps a change of currents or more likely different winds. As for Tanada, I have no idea where he is and also miss him on this thread as the expert... _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
"Arctic sea ice extent for June 2008 is close to that for 2007, which went on to reach the lowest minimum since at least 1979. More notably, however, satellite data indicate that melt began significantly earlier than last year over most of the Arctic Ocean. The large area of the Arctic Ocean covered by first-year ice (described in our June analysis) coupled with the early onset of melting may mean more rapid and more severe summer ice retreat than last year."
What you see are just surface melt pools on top of the floating sea ice. However the melt pools absorb heat from the sun 24 hour a day instead of reflecting it back to space as ice would do.
The melt pools are getting both wider and deeper and so accelerate the melting of the floating ice the weather station is built on.
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