How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2663 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($144.15)
emailking wrote:
Well I've been following PO for 3 years but done nothing. I decided 2 years ago that if it got to $145 I would start preparing. So that's my personal SHTF scenario.
well we didn't quite make it today but I'd recommend you start now anyways. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2615 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($143.67)
PrairieMule wrote:
Any predictions on 4th of July consumption? I know compared to Iran and Nigeria, holiday consumption is still a minor factor. OTOH-Maybe that is what breaks the camel's back. Memorial day was a bust, traffic was down everywhere. If we Americans go out and use what's left of their credit cards with a roadtrip, that could send us to us through $150(or higher?) by Monday.
As I observed earlier,
I was actually shocked into silence as I was talking to some co-workers this week. They were talking about how it was not a big deal to travel a long distance on vacation because it "was still cheaper than commuting to work." The thinking seems to be that since it is a paid vacation they are "saving" money by driving to Wyoming instead of going to work.
Net effect: A lot of people are using ~the same amount of fuel, just spending less on other things. Demand is being destructed, just not as much demand for transportation fuel that we would expect. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($144.32)
There's a very real possibility it could hit $150 tomorrow if the ECB raises rates as predicted.It really looks like the dollar is going to take another big hit.The freight train is gaining momentum and is going to be extremely difficult to stop. _________________ Gimme some demand destruction.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($144.32)
Perhaps this tidbit was today's price driver. The GoMex has been relatively quiet since 2005. Perhaps we are due for a solid storm this season.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.
Last edited by f2tornado on Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5347 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($144.13)
sjn wrote:
Zardoz wrote:
I'll be genuinely shocked and surprised if Nymex crude does not hit $150 by July 15.
That's a huge psychological threshold to cross, but the mighty forces that are at work now will inevitably push us over it.
Who would've guessed we'd be here so soon? This is really amazing.
Me!
Oh, sorry, that was rhetorical wasn't it?
Well done. My original forecast in 2007 was $146 oil this year, but now that figure seems quite inadequate when we have hardly begun a possible summer of discontent - with falling oil imports, possible hurricanes, and a chance of a little (or big) war on Iran. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
''If bin Laden takes over and becomes king of Saudi Arabia, he'd turn off the tap,'' said Roger Diwan, a managing director of the Petroleum Finance Company, a consulting firm in Washington. ''He said at one point that he wants oil to be $144 a barrel'' -- about six times what it sells for now.
_________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Time to break out the Vodka, but not to celebrate. I'll drink tonight to forget.
Where will Nymex be at the end of the day tomorrow? _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:52 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($144.32)
We'll see how serious $150 is to psychology.
Remember that Tapis got over $100 on 7-Nov. We dropped back into the $80s before WTI broke over on 2-Jan. It didn't close over $100 until 19-Feb.
Damned if that doesn't feel longer ago than 4-6 months. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 2820 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($144.32)
lawnchair wrote:
We'll see how serious $150 is to psychology.
Remember that Tapis got over $100 on 7-Nov. We dropped back into the $80s before WTI broke over on 2-Jan. It didn't close over $100 until 19-Feb.
Damned if that doesn't feel longer ago than 4-6 months.
It seems like 2 months to me. Time really flies in my world.
Wow, $150.00, hard to believe things are happening this fast. We are one hurricane in the gulf away from $175.00. I have a bad feeling about this hurricane season too. Last year there were MANY close calls, but the shearing winds tore them apart. Mexico had two cat 5's that could have easily split the Yukatan and entered the GOM. Very close call.
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