World Economy Would Collapse If Oil Hit $200, Deutsche Says

ROCKMAN

Good catch MD.

But I wasn't offering probabilities...just possibilities.

Just like India's potential fall from it's soaring economy might have been offered as a "possibility" 6 months ago:

Just off the wire:

Just six months ago, India was looking good. Annual growth was 9%, corporate profits were surging 20%, the stock market had risen 50% in 2007, consumer demand was huge, local companies were making ambitious international acquisitions, and foreign investment was growing. Nothing, it seemed, could stop the forward march of this Asian nation.

But stop it has. In the past month, India has joined the list of the wounded. The country is reeling from 11.4% inflation, large government deficits, and rising interest rates. Foreign investment is fleeing, the rupee is falling, and the stock market is down over 40% from the year's highs. Most economic forecasts expect growth to slow to 7%—a big drop for a country that needs to accelerate growth, not reduce it. "India has gone from hero to zero in six months," says Andrew Holland, head of proprietary trading at Merrill Lynch India (MER) in Mumbai. Many in India worry that the country's hard-earned investment-grade rating will soon be lost and that the gilded growth story has come to an end.

lexicon · Tar Sands Joined: Mar 08, 2005 Posts: 86

World Economy Collapse? As in New Great Depression?

All the more reason to bomb Iran pronto!

As Andrew Mellon said, "In a depression, assets return to their rightful owners".
_________________
"Old elephants limp off to the hills to die; old Americans go out to the highway and drive themselves to death with huge cars".
-Hunter S. Thompson

Eli

So we are 56 bucks from a global melt down.

Peak oil kicks ass!

threadbear · Expert Joined: Jan 22, 2005 Posts: 7505

TonyPrep

ROCKMAN

threadbear,

I'm not sure anyone can fore tell where China will go in the short or long term. For a few years many have been saying their huge GDP growth was going to explode. But it hasn't happened yet.

I'm predjudiced by my limited experiences I China. I adopted my daughter in China in 2000. I spent a lot of time wandering around the streets in a medium sized industrial city. I don't think I can make anyone understand the tenacity of those folks. They have almost nothing to work with by our standards yet can turn crap into gold by sheer effort alone. Combine that with a gov't that's in absolute control. From my perspective it's not really a communistic structure. I think it would be better described as a mafia model. But I don't mean in a bad way. They have a biz plan and no one will defy it. No one. We're likely to hear the political debate over PO go on for years here. There is no debate in China.

Lots of folks talk about their increasing consumption. I don't see that as the biggest threat to us. For years China has been entering production contracts and buying/financing production around the world. Angola has just become China's main supplier of oil replacing Saudi. But much of the oil coming out of Angola and elsewhere isn't just being bought but is actually owned by the Chinese at the wellhead. They have fixed contracts inplace with Veneauela as well as ownershio of a number of their fields. US companies are not going to be able to buy much of this crude even if they were willing to pay twice the market value. It belongs to China. I'm not aware of any such arrangement between the US gov't and any producer in the world. They may have over extended themselves...maybe not. Time will tell.

no_name · Tar Sands Joined: May 08, 2006 Posts: 43

The knife keeps twisting!

BBC

manu · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 753

The head lemming better get busy with some good news. Another war, more checks for people, rebates, satistics that say all is good, a small dip in the market, jobs are up, wag the dog, wag it some more, run for cover, hide while you can, party on, look the other way, more bombs, all is well, crap happens and don't blame me or I will nuke the cities myself. He wouldn't do that would he? Maybe for the good of the elite. Safe in his granite cave in Colo. he watches WW3 on his flat screened t.v. with glee. Population control and mass cremation all in one go. More oil and food to go around now.