I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 741 Location: Illinois
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:32 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
MonteQuest wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Yet, history says otherwise. See charts I posted.
If that were true, it would imply the MPG of the American vehicle fleet sets the price of crude oil. Are you making such a claim?
I don't claim anything. I cite the empirical data. "In the economics literature it is well known that increased efficiency in the use of a resource leads over time to greater use of that resource and not less use of it"
Lower prices spur greater consumption. But just because the United States increases its CAFE standards, that does not mean that alone is going to lower the price of crude. A multitude of factors influence the price of oil. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:37 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
kublikhan wrote:
Lower prices spur greater consumption. But just because the United States increases its CAFE standards, that does not mean that alone is going to lower the price of crude. A multitude of factors influence the price of oil.
Never said it would.???? Where did you get that notion? Not from me.
But if I am asked, in time, it will probably raise the price of crude as demand increases.
kublikhan,
How old are you? I am 57 and have been following this stuff since 1972, closely. I have seen it all unfold. I have heard this argument for decades. Doesn' t hold water. We have 150 years of empirical data to show it does not. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 741 Location: Illinois
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
MonteQuest wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
Lower prices spur greater consumption. But just because the United States increases its CAFE standards, that does not mean that alone is going to lower the price of crude. A multitude of factors influence the price of oil.
Never said it would.???? Where did you get that notion? Not from me.
If you look at a chart of the US per capita gasoline consumption over time, you will see that it started going up in the 90's. You implied this was because of Jevons' Paradox, the US auto fleet MPG was going up. I claim that is not the case. I claim that it was the Saudi's flooding the market with cheap oil that spurred greater consumption in the US, not Jevon's paradox. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
kublikhan wrote:
If you look at a chart of the US per capita gasoline consumption over time, you will see that it started going up in the 90's. You implied this was because of Jevons' Paradox, the US auto fleet MPG was going up. I claim that is not the case. I claim that it was the Saudi's flooding the market with cheap oil that spurred greater consumption in the US, not Jevon's paradox.
And if you look at my chart, you see that in the 90's gas consumption per vehicle went up due to the arrivial of the SUV craze.
However you look at it, lower price = greater consumption. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 741 Location: Illinois
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:59 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
MonteQuest wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
If you look at a chart of the US per capita gasoline consumption over time, you will see that it started going up in the 90's. You implied this was because of Jevons' Paradox, the US auto fleet MPG was going up. I claim that is not the case. I claim that it was the Saudi's flooding the market with cheap oil that spurred greater consumption in the US, not Jevon's paradox.
And if you look at my chart, you see that in the 90's gas consumption per vehicle went up due to the arrivial of the SUV craze.
However you look at it, lower price = greater consumption.
Exactly. But what caused the lower price? _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
kublikhan wrote:
Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.
Look at the correlation to MPG. Mirror image.
_________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 741 Location: Illinois
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:38 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
MonteQuest wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.
Look at the correlation to MPG. Mirror image.
That's not what I see in that chart. I see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2051 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:25 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
kublikhan wrote:
I see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.
I'm not sure how you see fuel consumption dropping. That may have been the case for a short while but you have to effectively multiply the bottom two data lines together, to get total fuel consumption.
If increased efficiency results in lower consumption, wouldn't that also lower the price, as well as increased production flooding the market?
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 741 Location: Illinois
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:01 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
TonyPrep wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
I see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.
I'm not sure how you see fuel consumption dropping. That may have been the case for a short while but you have to effectively multiply the bottom two data lines together, to get total fuel consumption.
If increased efficiency results in lower consumption, wouldn't that also lower the price, as well as increased production flooding the market?
The green line is total fuel consumption. As was discussed earlier, there was a huge surge is the supply of oil in the 1990's the caused the price to tank. If you notice, the mpg flat lines in the 1990's as well. So you can't say flat mpg caused the price to lower. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 741 Location: Illinois
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:38 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
TonyPrep wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
The green line is total fuel consumption.
Eh? The line legend is "Gallons per Vehicle", not total consumption.
Its per capita gasoline consumption per vehicle. Green = Red * Blue. Gasoline used = MPG * Miles driven. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 10:57 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.
Look at the correlation to MPG. Mirror image.
That's not what I see in that chart. I see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.
MPG flat-lined because SUV's came on the market. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
The average passenger car (which doesn't include SUVs) that Americans purchased in 1988 got 28.8 mpg. It only reached that level one more time (1998) until 2001. Suddenly in 2002, American purchases started to change. The average passenger car mpg started to rise. So that in 2007 it was up to 31.3mpg. Hmm...what started to occur in 2002ish? Gas prices started to rise?
Same with light trucks (which includes SUVS)---no improvement from 1988 to 2002. Then a nice jump.
Combining the passenger cars and light trucks.
1987 - 2001
Fuel economy dropped from 26.2 to 24.5mpg. Think cheap oil. A decrease in efficiency despite:
Quote:
kublikhan wrote:
Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
mQ:
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.
2001 - 2007
Improvement from 24.5 to 26.7mpg with most of that improvement in the last two years. Wonder what it will go up to this year with light truck sales tanking and $4 gas?
You would think with all this efficiency improvement we would see consumption increase anytime now.
Quote:
A new study by Cambridge Energy Research Associates indicates that the 2008 gasoline consumption will be lower than the 2007 peak and if oil prices stay at or near their current levels, gasoline consumption will continue to decline in the U.S. in the coming years and may never again reach 2007 levels.
It looks to me like jevons paradox has a long way to go to increase fuel consumption per vehicle (or per capita) back up to 1980 levels, but thanks for the chart.
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