I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6684 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: IEA Report: Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pr
Hogan wrote:
So much for demand destruction. I think we're in trouble.
Big time:
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Last edited by Zardoz on Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: IEA Report: Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pr
Hogan wrote:
But the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
On Oct 27, 2005, I wrote the following:
Montequest wrote:
There are many in the camp of “demand destruction will push peak oil into the future,” allowing us more time to transition to renewables and unconventional fossil fuel sources. But will it? One only has to review the goings-on in China, and to a lesser degree, India, to get a sense of certitude that demand destruction may not curb over-all energy consumption at all, but merely slow it’s grow…and maybe not even that.
In light of this, I question whether demand destruction will push peak oil into the future, much less lower energy prices. I feel the case can be made that, short of a global war or a massive depression, increased demand for energy will exceed demand destruction due to price, resulting in a continued net increase in the demand for energy, primarily, oil.
Conclusion: In my opinion, the only thing that will lower net oil consumption is peak oil itself.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2106 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
I remember, MQ. You've been saying this all along.
Any drop in western consumption (US, Europe) will quickly be sucked up by rapidly expanding Asian and S. American economies. Their domestic consumption is soaring, despite prices. They got a taste of the good life, and won't easily give it up.
It's not so much a case of them and us. Rather its one of, what was trumpeted as the triumphalism of capitalism to all corners of the globe, now confronts us with its ultimate dilemma....resource constraints.
In a bid to preserve their privilege from the levelling hand of socialism, the owners of capital exceeded this planets resourcing capacities and will, ironically, be forced to endure compellingly swinging cuts to their wealth base or else face anniahilation. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1371 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2106 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
I'm not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.
Try as we might like to wish away this problem by the use of meaningless labels, the sad fact of the matter is that a good many individuals more across this planet aspire after and are acquiring the very wherewithal you take for granted in the US than was the case in the days of the Cold War and newly independent Asian and Latin American colonies. I deliberatey exclude Africa from this equation as I am not entirely sure that it has freed itself from the bonds of its colonial ties. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:43 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
I guess you didn't even bother to read Monte Quest's post above:
Quote:
In my opinion, the only thing that will lower net oil consumption is peak oil itself.
_________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:48 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
World wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies. _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1371 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
americandream wrote:
I'm not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.
Do you think the Chinese will be able to merrily increase their oil consumption at the same rate they are now if oil rises to $250/barrel, $400/barrel, or more? Or, will their governments continue to be able to subsidize oil prices at those levels?
Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?
Contrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.
Furthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow. And the rest of the world, too.
And once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
SILENTTODD wrote:
World wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies.
Not only is that not going to happen, but I think the gross amount of subsidies will actually increase as the price rises. That includes the US, where I expect some combination of a sort of fuel consumption tax cut, some kind of income tax credit or a kind of rebate to offset rising fuel and/or heating costs. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3970 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:52 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
And that is not going to happen in the case of China they have trillions in dollars just sitting around waiting to be spent. They will continue to subsidize oil.
That will have the effect of destroying the US spending power, the more China dumps the dollar the more oil there will be for them to take.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2106 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:56 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
americandream, just ignore OF2. He's flame baiting this thread, trying to hijack it.
I guess I find it difficult comprehendending why someone would seek to nitpick such an important issue with such sweeping effects at so many levels.
It's not a case of the odd electric car here or the odd hydrogen device there, or perhaps, being generous to this fellow, the odd new oil field over yonder. That seems so evident to me. This crisis goes to the very heart of how we see the world and all the layers of our lives within it.
Although I try my best to think well of most folks I meet, such glaring displays of rigidity still throw me. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:57 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
I remember, MQ. You've been saying this all along.
Any drop in western consumption (US, Europe) will quickly be sucked up by rapidly expanding Asian and S. American economies. Their domestic consumption is soaring, despite prices. They got a taste of the good life, and won't easily give it up.
I say we beat the consumption out of people.
Then we wouldn't have such a problem.
It would help though if I didn't purchase millions of barrels of oil just to watch it pour off a cliff into a river because I thought it looked cool...
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
How intelligent is that comment?
It's going to increase until we hit the wall. The point being that we aren't going to slow down the runaway train. Too much double digit forward momentum. Too many people getting a taste of the "good life". _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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