Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3909 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:52 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
And that is not going to happen in the case of China they have trillions in dollars just sitting around waiting to be spent. They will continue to subsidize oil.
That will have the effect of destroying the US spending power, the more China dumps the dollar the more oil there will be for them to take.
Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1331 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
SILENTTODD wrote:
World wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies.
Agreed. Those governments will do everything in their power to keep their fuel prices lower, which in turn will increase demand. Besides, Asian and S. American populations are only going to continue increasing. _________________ Now why didn't I think of that?
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1923 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:56 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
americandream, just ignore OF2. He's flame baiting this thread, trying to hijack it.
I guess I find it difficult comprehendending why someone would seek to nitpick such an important issue with such sweeping effects at so many levels.
It's not a case of the odd electric car here or the odd hydrogen device there, or perhaps, being generous to this fellow, the odd new oil field over yonder. That seems so evident to me. This crisis goes to the very heart of how we see the world and all the layers of our lives within it.
Although I try my best to think well of most folks I meet, such glaring displays of rigidity still throw me. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:57 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
I remember, MQ. You've been saying this all along.
Any drop in western consumption (US, Europe) will quickly be sucked up by rapidly expanding Asian and S. American economies. Their domestic consumption is soaring, despite prices. They got a taste of the good life, and won't easily give it up.
I say we beat the consumption out of people.
Then we wouldn't have such a problem.
It would help though if I didn't purchase millions of barrels of oil just to watch it pour off a cliff into a river because I thought it looked cool...
Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1331 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
americandream wrote:
Hogan wrote:
americandream, just ignore OF2. He's flame baiting this thread, trying to hijack it.
I guess I find it difficult comprehendending why someone would seek to nitpick such an important issue with such sweeping effects at so many levels.
It's not a case of the odd electric car here or the odd hydrogen device there, or perhaps, being generous to this fellow, the odd new oil field over yonder. That seems so evident to me. This crisis goes to the very heart of how we see the world and all the layers of our lives within it.
Although I try my best to think well of most folks I meet, such glaring displays of rigidity still throw me.
I understand how you feel. It still amazes me that some people will never understand even the basic concepts of the big picture. Or maybe they are just in denial. I don't really know which. _________________ Now why didn't I think of that?
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
How intelligent is that comment?
It's going to increase until we hit the wall. The point being that we aren't going to slow down the runaway train. Too much double digit forward momentum. Too many people getting a taste of the "good life". _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1923 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:06 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
americandream wrote:
I'm not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.
Do you think the Chinese will be able to merrily increase their oil consumption at the same rate they are now if oil rises to $250/barrel, $400/barrel, or more? Or, will their governments continue to be able to subsidize oil prices at those levels?
Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?
Contrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.
Furthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow. And the rest of the world, too.
And once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price.
I think no one in their right mind will deny that PO contemplates system failure. It's a question of magnitude I guess.
Your position on this board to date seems to contemplate mitigation of this crisis by one or the other means. That simply will not happen in my opinion. This is a systemic issue and the remedy can only be a systemic one.
Having said that, the die is cast for this way of life all across the globe and oil will be obtained, whether by market forces or martial force by the strongest players, it will be utilised into the peak, through the peak and beyond the peak until systemic collapse.
Thats where some of us on here and you, part company. We see no transitional outcomes, smoothening of the descent or other kindly outcome to the demise of Cornucopia. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:09 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?
They will buy even more.
Quote:
Contrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.
With their dollar reserves, they will for quite a while.
Quote:
Furthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow.
At 11% GDP growth, they will soon have their own internal consumption. That is the 5 year Plan.
Quote:
And once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price.
Not unless demand declines faster than oil production. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1331 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:10 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
MonteQuest wrote:
It's going to increase until we hit the wall. The point being that we aren't going to slow down the runaway train. Too much double digit forward momentum. Too many people getting a taste of the "good life".
Just like when the Titanic hit the iceberg on that fateful evening. By the time the lookouts spotted the iceberg (peak oil), it was too late. Her speed was too fast (world oil consumption, dependency), and her rudders too small (energy alternatives) to allow her to miss the iceberg. The rest is history. _________________ Now why didn't I think of that?
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:16 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
I understand how you feel. It still amazes me that some people will never understand even the basic concepts of the big picture. Or maybe they are just in denial. I don't really know which.
Perhaps it challenges beliefs and attitudes that were central to their very identity as humans made in the Western industrial mold. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1923 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:16 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
It's going to increase until we hit the wall. The point being that we aren't going to slow down the runaway train. Too much double digit forward momentum. Too many people getting a taste of the "good life".
Just like when the Titanic hit the iceberg on that fateful evening. By the time the lookouts spotted the iceberg (peak oil), it was too late. Her speed was too fast (world oil consumption, dependency), and her rudders too small (energy alternatives) to allow her to miss the iceberg. The rest is history.
You have it there in a word. There's just too much momentum in the spread of consumerism for there to be what many seem to think will be a nice fit between price increase and demand destruction. Agreed, demand destruction will occur. That's a given. However, IMHO, there will be a significant lag between price increase and momentum slowdown, enough to slip us into a full blown crisis with nasty overtones. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Eli wrote:
Monte in the case of China and India I think it now goes beyond the desire for the good life.
I think they must grow and expand or they will literally start dying. Without growth their populations will start to revolt.
That's why I said they will buy even more oil as the price goes up.
Wouldn't you, if it meant getting your first car, TV and refrigerator after a life of tyranny and toil as a peasant?
Don't people read about Chinese history and culture?
And India right behind them salivating at the mere thought of it. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1156 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:23 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
MonteQuest wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?
They will buy even more.
And following that logic, they will also buy still more if it hits $10/gallon, $20/gallon, and $infinity/gallon.
Utter absurdity.
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
Contrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.
With their dollar reserves, they will for quite a while.
If they flooded the world market with their dollar reserves in order to subsidize oil for their consumers, this flooding of the world would devalue the dollar even more, thus sending up the price of oil even more (since it is priced in dollars). The effect of this would be for them to spend ever-increasing amounts of dollars to purchase the same (or even less) amounts of oil. At some point their reserves would dry up, and the scheme could continue no more.
But of course the Chinese already know this, which is why they've recently reduced their subsidies.
Furthermore, this flooding of the world with dollars would crash the US and the rest of the world economy. Since much of their economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, once the economies of the US and the West crashed, the Chinese economy would eventually follow.
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
Furthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow.
At 11% GDP growth, they will soon have their own internal consumption. That is the 5 year Plan.
That 5-year plan is dependent upon exports to the US and the rest of the world. If the economy of the US and the rest of the world collapses, so does that 11% economic growth and the 5-year plan.
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
And once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price.
Not unless demand declines faster than oil production.
If the world economy collapsed due to the Chinese flooding the world with dollars and due to $400 oil, demand would plummet far below whatever the current capacity at the time would be. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Utter absurdity.
Next?
PS Didn't you read my last admonishment about unintelligent comments. They will buy more until they hit the wall of collaspe. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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