Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:47 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
It's really okay. I just heard of this wondrous new technology. Alcohol. Yup. Plain old ordinary alcohol.
You can grow corn or just about anything (I even heard they can use turkey guts, something about deprogrammingization) and let it sit in the sun. It turns into oilanol or guessamerol or something. Then that is fermented with icecream in big vats and the the gasoline comes out the other end.
And if that doesn't work then you can try switchgrass.
Joined: Apr 13, 2007 Posts: 70 Location: western new york
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
I really don't think this has a thing to do with peak oil. First Gallium is not a rare earth it's a semimetal. This may not seem like a big error, but it explains a lot of what is wrong with your argument. I copied this from wikipedia
Quote:
A soft silvery metallic poor metal, gallium is a brittle solid at low temperatures but liquefies slightly above room temperature and will melt in the hand. It occurs in trace amounts in bauxite and zinc ores
Quote:
Indium (pronounced /ˈɪndiəm/) is a chemical element with chemical symbol In and atomic number 49. This rare, soft, malleable and easily fusible poor metal is chemically similar to aluminium or gallium but more closely resembles zinc (zinc ores are also the primary source of this metal).
Zinc mines in the quote are a also lead mines. What happened is that the EU and Japan have outlawed lead in electronics. and other consumer goods. I don't know if this includes lead acid batteries, but it does include lead solder. Lead paid the bills in all those mines and now there is a lot less of it being mined. Also from lead mines are indium, germanium, arsenic, and cadmium, and of coarse zinc itself. The production of these elements suddenly went from being a sideline to noneconomic. A little unintended consequence.
The argument about peak oil is if oil really is special, in that it is so pervasive and so important that their really are no substitutes or none available in any reasonable time frame. These elements aren't. These shortages and problems are just what scientists consider job security.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3389 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:14 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
Geez Lorenzo, you're not much of a cornucopian! Or are you shorting Nanosolar?
95% of the rare earths are sourced from China, who don't seem to have a problem with using lead - the mark of a true empire? I see how one of them, dysprosium, is important for hybrid motors. These others are correctly classified as poor metals. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4543 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:24 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
The way that people immediately attacked me for suggesting that running out of X element in 10 years is unrealistic adds further evidence to my belief that Peak Oilers are inherently too eager to jump to doomerish conclusions.
I said that we should take that prediction with a grain of salt. Meaning, that we shouldn't automatically assume that they are 100% accurate and start running around like terrified children.
I was merely suggesting that we look at their study more closely and try to figure out why they assumed we were going to run out of X element so quickly.
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
frankthetank wrote:
This should be interesting to watch.
Gallium also has several positive uses in the medical field.
Zinc is a life saver for rust prevention. No more galvanized nails, screws or garbage cans!
We are heading right back to the 18oo's if we like it or not.
The 19th century was very developed. You had water, steam, and coal powered textile mills popping up everywhere. Early 19th-century industry was more sustainable because its main source of power was water.
Steam could work with machines again too.
Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1331 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
Tyler_JC wrote:
The way that people immediately attacked me for suggesting that running out of X element in 10 years is unrealistic adds further evidence to my belief that Peak Oilers are inherently too eager to jump to doomerish conclusions.
I said that we should take that prediction with a grain of salt. Meaning, that we shouldn't automatically assume that they are 100% accurate and start running around like terrified children.
I was merely suggesting that we look at their study more closely and try to figure out why they assumed we were going to run out of X element so quickly.
I don't think anyone was attacking you. People reacted that way because you quickly dismissed it and didn't even give a reason why. _________________ Now why didn't I think of that?
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:50 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
kuidaskassikaeb wrote:
I really don't think this has a thing to do with peak oil. First Gallium is not a rare earth it's a semimetal. This may not seem like a big error, but it explains a lot of what is wrong with your argument. I copied this from wikipedia
Gallium is a proper metal, at least as good a metal as aluminum is.
On the other hand you are a semichemist or more likely not a chemist at all.
Your other assertion that gallium is not a rare earth metal is correct:
Rare earth metals are also known as lanthanides:
There is 14 of them out of which 13 can be found in natural environment and the last one (promethium, Pm)) is radioactive and exist naturally on Earth only in incredibly low concentrations as a short living product of natural fission of U235.
Some peoples are also adding few other trivalent metals into rare earth category.
These are:
1. Scandium (Sc)
2. Lanthanum (La)
3. Yttrium (Y), not to be confused with ytterbium.
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
pstarr wrote:
It's really okay. I just heard of this wondrous new technology. Alcohol. Yup. Plain old ordinary alcohol.
You can grow corn or just about anything (I even heard they can use turkey guts, something about deprogrammingization) and let it sit in the sun. It turns into oilanol or guessamerol or something. Then that is fermented with icecream in big vats and the the gasoline comes out the other end.
And if that doesn't work then you can try switchgrass.
Pretty neat, huh?
The Indy500 cars used to run on alcohol back around 1915.
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
TheDude wrote:
Geez Lorenzo, you're not much of a cornucopian! Or are you shorting Nanosolar?
Nanosolar will be hyped for years to come, so there's no way to short it now. But I will be there when the time is ripe.
But to answer your question: I've never been a cornucopian. I do think however that we can stretch resources far enough into time, to the moment when world population stabilizes at 9 billion (2050), so we can prepare for a population decline (2075 onwards), which will give us some slack.
The following 40 years will be determining whether we make it as a species or not.
The chances that we achieve the demographic transition in the developing countries (especially in Africa and South Asia) - which is what we need to pull this off -, are just as big as the chances that we don't.
Since I'm optimistic by nature, I think we will make it. The transition is happening faster than most expected, with fertility rates going down much faster than in Europe's or Japan's transition, even in countries where this could not be imagined earlier. The key is to teach little girls that their wombs are theirs, and to give them access to birth control. It works really well. Add the rapid rural-urban migration (which slashes fertility rates from 7 to 2 in a single generation), and we can be hopeful.
Once we have a situation of gradual population decline, we can at last begin to live in earnest, and the era of true plenty will begin.
That's why, as always, the Beginning is Near!! _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 266 Location: San Francisco, CA
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 12:09 pm Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
Tyler_JC wrote:
Are these people related to the folks at Club of Rome who predicted that the world would use up all of the world's gold by 1981? Zinc by 1990? Tin by 1987? Lead by 1993?
I'd take predictions like that with a grain of salt.
I haven't read the book myself (I'm going to get a copy though) but my recollection was that they predicted that within a CENTURY (that would be by 2070) many energy sources and vital resources would be exhausted, and that oil would be the first one to be in short supply. So far those predictions are right on the mark, and we still have a ways to go to reach 2070.
The data suggests that Indium-dependent PV technology such as CIGS or Organic PV will not amount to more than 1% of all PV.
However, graphene has potential as a substitute for Indium. Graphene is abundant and has common uses such as graphite pencils and lubricants. When writing on paper with a pencil, you are actually depositing graphene nano-structures on the paper.
The challenge is to figure out better ways to bond the graphene molecules to form a thin conductive sheet. Current technology can produce transparent conductors with graphene, but it is not as efficient as Indium. _________________ "I eat the pretzel, it get stuck in the throat and I pass out..." - George W Bush
March 7, 2007 Remarks by the President to Political Appointees
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 480 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:03 pm Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
"Bye bye photovoltaics..."
Holy crap! I certainly hope not since my paycheck comes from the solar power industry! It CAN'T! DO YOU HEAR ME??? It simply CAN'T! This job was my ticket to a life-long income with the ability to live anywhere I want!!!
*hyperventilating*
it can't I tell ya...a-hoo, sniff...
OH NO!!! WHAT ABOUT ... THE .. INTERNETS!!!!! I'll simply kill myself. That's all. Just...BANG! THE INTERNETS! NOOOOO!!! WAHHHH!!!
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:47 pm Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
"Bye, bye photovoltaics" LOL! Let's talk about exaggerating here:
- Almost 90% of current production is the "old" technology of silicon doped with phosporous and boron, and all of them are not rare in earth's crust.
- And what about Dye-sensitized solar cells? They have the same advantages that thin-films but using titanium dioxide (pretty common, is used in paints and toothpaste). Their industrial development is starting right now.
And regarding the platinum/fuel cells issue, 2 possibles technofixes:
Joined: Sep 03, 2005 Posts: 75 Location: Germany, State M-V
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: Bye bye photovoltaics: rare earth elements depleted by 2
kuidaskassikaeb wrote:
Lead paid the bills in all those mines and now there is a lot less of it being mined. Also from lead mines are indium, germanium, arsenic, and cadmium, and of coarse zinc itself. The production of these elements suddenly went from being a sideline to noneconomic.
In Germany are new car batterys now quite expensive! For a medium car (VW Passat/Golf) with 12V, 63AH they cost between 100 Euros (Noname) till 140 Euros (good brand), but in a home improvement store i saw one for about 66 Euros (about 1 Euro per Ah).
I don't know if the last one was a special offer for a short time.
Used ones (same size) cost about 20 Euros.
So i think that lead should be a precious metal again.
I read about that organic cell first time in the middle of the 90s.
Quote:
*hyperventilating*
it can't I tell ya...a-hoo, sniff...
This was a good one. Like from that poster in the thread about the trucker strikes in England:
"All the fault of the Aliens!!
....
No, the government!
....
ROAR Peak Oil is a myth! ROAR
..."
I had to get some extra handkerchiefs for stopping my tears.
I had forgotten to post that he should go to Hollywood as a storybook writer for people like Jay Leno or Conan O'Brien.
Now the writer get better earnings from everything.
That's it would be!
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