How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1626 Location: Australia
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 2:16 am Post subject: Re: First Post - War in Iran
That becomes even more abstract.
Right now they are blaming "speculators".
Well a speculator is simply someone who takes a position based on where they think a price is heading.
Sometimes traders using technical or fundemental analsysis is however not being considered speculators as they take position based on analysis and speculators are those who just take a punt. Personally I think this is a bit silly definition.
Currently however "speculator" seems to be someone who makes proofit from rising energy costs without actually having a need for the actual resource. I.e. people who are in for the money only.
That is how it always is. If you don't want to be blamed yourself have to find another scapegoat and thje congress is good at that.
Usually it doesn't lead to anything except diverting attention away from the responsible. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: Re: First Post - War in Iran
Dreamtwister wrote:
mcgowanjm wrote:
Attack on Iran would qualify as Black Swan
Not really. A black swan is a "large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations." War with Iran is not only easy to predict, the media seems to treat it as virtually inevitable.
A Black Swan will automatically come into view
once Iran is attacked. If Bushehr is breached for ex.
Because no one knows what the follow thru will be.
I doubt that Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi want to be complicit in an attack on Iran. The US puppet Iraq regime would be discredited if they allowed Jews through their airspace.
Strangely, the map detours around Kuwait, a complete US puppet, indicated by the dark colour.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1626 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: First Post - War in Iran
Through Iraq seems like the logical path.
Planes can however cross Syrian airspace as well as Israel has complete disregard for their opinions. In fact, if there is an intention to escalate the war on a regional level, this might even be a good tactic. Syria has always been on the Israeli/US hate list.
This fits well with the Bible prophecies that foretell the destruction of Damascus. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:14 am Post subject: Re: First Post - War in Iran
ReducedToZero wrote:
Can Iran be considered a "black swan" event if oil speculators and consequently oil prices take into account the risk factor (percentage based?) of going to war?
Simply a question feel free to dissect my logic.
Consider it dissected.
"a black swan is a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations."
War with Iran would hardly fall under that criteria.
An asteroid hitting us out of nowhere would be a Black Swan. _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
Snip:
Report: Iran warns against military action
By NASSER KARIMI – 2 hours ago
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran would consider any military action against its nuclear facilities as the beginning of a war, the country's top Revolutionary Guards commander said in remarks published Friday.
Gen. Mohammed Ali Jafari's comments, carried by Iran's official news agency, come as speculation of possible military action against Iran's nuclear facilities mounts. The U.S. has said all options are on the table, and there are worries that Israel might be considering a unilateral strike. Both countries, which accuse Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, say they favor a diplomatic solution.
Jafari said any country that attacks Iran would regret doing so.
"Any action against Iran is regarded as the beginning of war," Jafari said late Thursday, according to the IRNA news agency report. "Iran's response to any military action will make the invaders regret their decision and action." _________________ Live simply, love generously, care deeply, and speak kindly.
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass;
It's about learning how to dance in the rain.
Last edited by IndigoMoon on Fri Jul 04, 2008 6:26 am; edited 1 time in total
Snip:
TEHRAN (AFP) — The head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards has warned that any Israeli or US attack on its nuclear sites would mean the outbreak of war, the official IRNA news agency reported on Friday.
"Any action against Iran will be interpreted as the start of a war," General Mohammad Ali Jafari was quoted as saying late on Thursday. "Iran's response to any military action will make the aggressors regret their decision."
The United States has never ruled out an eventual resort to force against Iran over its contested nuclear programme, which the West fears is cover for a drive to build an atomic weapon.
Israel, which is widely believed to be the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear power, has said it will stop Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb at all costs.
US media reported that more than 100 Israeli warplanes staged a training exercise with Greece last month to prepare for a possible long-distance strike and as a warning to Tehran. _________________ Live simply, love generously, care deeply, and speak kindly.
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass;
It's about learning how to dance in the rain.
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 103 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 6:30 am Post subject: Re: First Post - War in Iran
I am pretty sick of hearing this Iran saber rattling..Its old..
What in the world has the USA to gain by going to war with Iran? A oil shortage? A mad population?
The USA has to already extend and add troops to Afghanistan and Iraq..Even Obama said he'll keep troops in Iraq...
The US Army is already suffering from enlistment problems and retention on troops..I can imagine how many troops would just sign up or re-enlist if a new war broke out with Iran.
As long as Iran send its oil and gas "BTW second largest behind Russia. All will be fine...
BTW most Iranian oil goes to China and India...I can imagine how happy they would be with a USA-Israeli attack.
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 8:17 pm Post subject: Re: First Post - War in Iran
GeneralGreen wrote:
I am pretty sick of hearing this Iran saber rattling..Its old..
What in the world has the USA to gain by going to war with Iran? A oil shortage? A mad population?
The USA has to already extend and add troops to Afghanistan and Iraq..Even Obama said he'll keep troops in Iraq...
The US Army is already suffering from enlistment problems and retention on troops..I can imagine how many troops would just sign up or re-enlist if a new war broke out with Iran.
As long as Iran send its oil and gas "BTW second largest behind Russia. All will be fine...
BTW most Iranian oil goes to China and India...I can imagine how happy they would be with a USA-Israeli attack.
The USA has nothing to gain but what does that matter - the same was true of invading Iraq! What the leaders currently in power in the USA have to gain is probably one of the most time-honored benefits of all - distraction of a population from terrible economic woes caused by this party's incompetent management and looting, particularly when the interests in power are going to lose an election against a non-military candidate. Wouldn't Mccain make much more sense than Obama as a war president against the "malevolent evil" of Iran? That the hugely expensive oil is all a plot by the last remaining member of the Axis of Evil? How could we hold hearings and trials and investigations into Iraq war crimes and the trillions lost and stolen while there is a even bigger war onging?
"Its a slam-dunk", baby.....
Last edited by Fiddlerdave on Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:23 am; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5328 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: First Post - War in Iran
GeneralGreen wrote:
I am pretty sick of hearing this Iran saber rattling..Its old..
What in the world has the USA to gain by going to war with Iran? A oil shortage? A mad population?
The USA has to already extend and add troops to Afghanistan and Iraq..Even Obama said he'll keep troops in Iraq...
The US Army is already suffering from enlistment problems and retention on troops..I can imagine how many troops would just sign up or re-enlist if a new war broke out with Iran.
As long as Iran send its oil and gas "BTW second largest behind Russia. All will be fine...
BTW most Iranian oil goes to China and India...I can imagine how happy they would be with a USA-Israeli attack.
Welcome GG.
I posted a thread here a year or so ago that projected Iran would basically seize to be a net exporter of oil & oil products by 2018. That's not a long time.
Being closer to the ME, if any oil is lost from Iran not only China/India would be angry and retaliate economically, but would probably buy what available oil there is left in the ME and have much lower shipping costs to do so than the US.
So yes, I am saying that going after Iran would actually be like cutting our own economic throat. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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through their airspace.
