Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 569 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 11:37 pm Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
My facetious smily doesn't work.
A battery is a group of things:
Quote:
1. Electricity. a. Also called galvanic battery, voltaic battery. a combination of two or more cells electrically connected to work together to produce electric energy.
b. cell (def. 7a).
2. any large group or series of related things: a battery of questions.
In symantic land, a battery /= an energy storage device.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4570 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 2:00 am Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
yesplease wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
Tell that to AltairNano, but that's a different story of course...
Even then they'll only (I know, only... ) last ~25,000 cycles compared to the 1,000,000 ultracap modules are rated at.
Not that I necessarily believe their claims or think they will go anywhere with their batteries, but as a practical comparison of the claims...
At 1 full discharge a day, that's a lifespan of 68 years. I'd be dead and my daughter would be rocking in a wheelchair in the post-peak-oil homestead before an off-grid battery bank of AltairNanos wore out. So that's good enough for me.
So AltairNanos could be almost equally game-changing. The big difference is EESTOR claims more energy density than AltairNanos, hence longer range with an EV, long enough to convert the reluctant. But an AltairNano EV would still be feasible. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 3:13 am Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
I've had enough of your making sense you!
The only problem I could see is if the batteries aged out before they could really be used since testing hasn't been done on 'em for long enough yet. Cost may also be a problem according to EESTOR's claims. $2000/kWh versus $100/kWh, but even then that's splitting hairs considering that at $2,000 kWh they would only have to last ~10,000 cycles to be as good as LiFePO4 cells. _________________
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4570 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 3:57 am Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
yesplease wrote:
The only problem I could see is if the batteries aged out before they could really be used since testing hasn't been done on 'em for long enough yet.
Right, but one of the big things people are worried about with supercapacitors is breakage of the internal nano-sized filaments. So there will probably also be some long-term degradation of EESTOR packs in vehicles. We don't know yet.
yesplease wrote:
Cost may also be a problem according to EESTOR's claims. $2000/kWh versus $100/kWh, but even then that's splitting hairs considering that at $2,000 kWh they would only have to last ~10,000 cycles to be as good as LiFePO4 cells.
Up front costs are the reason why EVs and alternative energy in general is an uphill battle with the consumer. For utility applications which can sink huge initial capital expenses, they can do it. For Joe sixpack, he has a hard time even justifying the relatively small premium of a parallel hybrid. So selling him a vehicle with a $20K+ battery pack under the pretense that "gee, but it will last you a lifetime" is still a hard sell. He has to do the math for when it's going to pay itself back.
So being able to technically do something is fine, but you have to also show that you can cost reduce it. That's what's driven the computer industry, for instance. I firmly do NOT believe that something like Moore's Law applies to all technological endeavors but I do recognize that that's what it TAKES for something to be a "game changer". _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:12 am Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
I wonder if a few years down the road big auto manufacturers will offer finanance packages w/ 'em in order to levelize costs and let the vehicle seem available to the consumer? In any event, the way oil prices are going EVs are going to be cost reduced relative to conventional cars regardless of whether or not advances/mass production gets pricing down. The only thing keeping people on the fence IMO is what exactly demand will do. If oil can defend itself around ~$150/bbl for the next year or two, or maybe even go higher, EVs, even as they are today, will take off. Otoh, even if it doesn't crash like it did in the 80s, which I really doubt it will, dropping back down to ~$80-100 would kill anyone in the EV market IMO. _________________
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 7:40 am Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
The first good alternative car will cause the gas to drop like a rock. The saudis have a vested interest also in keeping the fuel flowing. Thats what happned in the 80's. THAT is their biggest fear. That we wont NEED their crap anymore.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4570 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
joelcolorado wrote:
The first good alternative car will cause the gas to drop like a rock. The saudis have a vested interest also in keeping the fuel flowing. Thats what happned in the 80's. THAT is their biggest fear. That we wont NEED their crap anymore.
That's a really naive argument on multiple levels.
No alternative car at this late stage in the game will be able to do anything more than maybe let us tread water with oil prices as the decline starts, and even that is an optimistic scenario. It just takes too damn long to scale out and we've "run out the clock" as Simmons says. Toyota can't even make enough Prii to keep up with demand and that's a vehicle that has been in production for over a decade. This oil shock is happening too fast for corporations to evolve. It's the business equivalent of the asteroid impact that killed off the dinosaurs. Small grass roots companies like Aptera are like the mammals that will probably wind up inheriting what's left of the industry. Just don't expect a vehicle like that in everybody's driveway. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 440 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:39 pm Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
Quote:
EEStor says its system, combining battery and ultracapacitor technology and based on modified barium titanate ceramic powder, could power a car for 400 kilometres with regular performance. It claims the unit would charge in a few minutes and weigh less than 10% of current lead-acid batteries for the same cost.
If I tried that on my house supply in Spain it would blow up. I can barely run a water heater, kettle and fridge at the same time. How many amps would you need to charge a capacitor to run a car 'with regular performance' for 400Km 'in a few minutes'?
Peak Barium? Peak Titanium? are either of these likely to limit ramp up?
Night time charging when normal demand is least would obviously be required to avoid overloading the electricity supply... and I think it would have to be trickle charge, not fast charge.
Not sure about barium, but titanium is pretty common. Titanium dioxide is used in toothpaste, for instance.
The only thing I know about barium is that it's what you swallow when they want to take special X-rays. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 7:10 pm Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
mos6507 wrote:
That's a really naive argument on multiple levels.
No alternative car at this late stage in the game will be able to do anything more than maybe let us tread water with oil prices as the decline starts, and even that is an optimistic scenario. It just takes too damn long to scale out and we've "run out the clock" as Simmons says.
Too long for what? Also, it may not be a car. I'm guessing that if they *already aren't, EVs will have the majority of China's personal transportation sales pretty soon. Capturing the majority of the market in the world's fastest growing economy w/o even seeing peak in all liquids seems significant IMO. Oil's going to decline for decades minimum. We haven't seen electric cars roll out in force because oil prices just aren't high enough in most of the world. Even where they are high enough like the UK, we're only seeing tentative steps because people are worried about demand destruction. For instance, in the US, people clearly are fine for the most part w/ $3/gallon gas. So in order to deal w/ $6/gallon gas provided no other alternatives are appetizing, they'll need a vehicle that gets a whopping 34mpg, which they can get for a few grand, 50mpg vehicles can be had for a grand or two more. But anyway, according to the many on this site and the Deutsche Bank, $200/bbl would destroy the economy, so that's a moot point.
But seriously, with a fleet average of 17mpg, and plenty of used vehicles that can get ~30-60mpg, more w/ changes in driving habits, I don't think we'll see EVs en mass in the states outside of scooters and city cars for a while.
mos6507 wrote:
Toyota can't even make enough Prii to keep up with demand and that's a vehicle that has been in production for over a decade. This oil shock is happening too fast for corporations to evolve. It's the business equivalent of the asteroid impact that killed off the dinosaurs. Small grass roots companies like Aptera are like the mammals that will probably wind up inheriting what's left of the industry. Just don't expect a vehicle like that in everybody's driveway.
Everyone is waiting to see how demand destruction/conservation versus price plays out. Toyota's capping the 2nd gen Prius output because they're due for the 2.5/third gen next year. Lets say GM releases the Volt w/ gasoline at $6/gallon. If Americans instead opt to drive more efficient used vehicles more efficiently, lets say at 34mpg, for $5k initially and $2k/year in fuel costs, it's a lot less up front cash and probably the same cost overall. I suppose one could say that demand will push the price of oil up to ~$400 and we would see $12/gallon gasoline, but where is this demand coming from? China's most popular vehicle, if it isn't already, will be electric, and they may even beat the US to the PHEV starting line. I think India and Europe may see some more growth, but I don't see where else it's going to come from in order to justify $400/bbl.
*If their yoy growth has continued, then they could be, and if it's increased due to higher oil prices, then they probably are. _________________
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4570 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 9:48 pm Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
yesplease wrote:
China's most popular vehicle, if it isn't already, will be electric, and they may even beat the US to the PHEV starting line. I think India and Europe may see some more growth, but I don't see where else it's going to come from in order to justify $400/bbl.
It doesn't take growth. We could have a steady state economy and as oil depletes, prices will continue to go up. A steady state economy is unlikely due to population growth alone.
If it takes a high enough oil price for EVs to take off that it crashes the entire global economy first, then it's a catch-22 for EVs. EVs have to appear before TSHTF, and if you don't think TS has HTF now, then you'd be hard pressed to convince anyone here that TS won't HTF for the next 3-5 years necessary before BEVs and plugins really start to ramp up the production curve.
Your future friendly neighborhood peak oil zombie is not going to be in the market for an EV just because oil has now gone over the magic $500/bbl and the math on lithium works. He doesn't need a commuter vehicle anymore. He's too busy scrambling for braaainnnz.
Mass produced EVs are supposed to be a means to prevent or seriously postpone TSHTF, not be a reaction to it.
Last year I felt the way you did. But everything is accelerating and I think the relative normalcy we're enjoying is unlikely to last much longer. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
mos6507 wrote:
It doesn't take growth. We could have a steady state economy and as oil depletes, prices will continue to go up. A steady state economy is unlikely due to population growth alone.
If we are five years in the future, once liquids are projected to start depleting according to the projections, and are at the exact point we are now, then I'd be more inclined to agree. But we aren't at depletion yet AFAIK. Hell, we ain't even at people driving slower on the freeway yet. I guess people like working more than their free time/driving or everyone makes over ~$30-50/hour? The population growth you're referring to is driving prices, and alternatives, up before we even see peak. The first ones that pop out are the ones that are slam-dunks economically. Compact/sub-compact cars, e/g2w, cycling, mass-transit, changes of location, etc...
mos6507 wrote:
If it takes a high enough oil price for EVs to take off that it crashes the entire global economy first, then it's a catch-22 for EVs. EVs have to appear before TSHTF, and if you don't think TS has HTF now, then you'd be hard pressed to convince anyone here that TS won't HTF for the next 3-5 years necessary before BEVs and plugins really start to ramp up the production curve.]
Your future friendly neighborhood peak oil zombie is not going to be in the market for an EV just because oil has now gone over the magic $500/bbl and the math on lithium works. He doesn't need a commuter vehicle anymore. He's too busy scrambling for braaainnnz.
My future friendly neighborhood PO zombie is actually in the market for something now, be it EV or otherwise. I don't think EVs are going to present the majority of alternatives given that people can
-Buy more efficient cars/trucks
-Buy scooters EV or gas
-Bike
-Move closer to work
-Work closer to home
-Etc...
Long term we'll have to go to EVs, on two or four wheels, or maybe syn fuels if nukes take off, but since we haven't even started to see the impacts of long-run demand destruction, way before liquids are set to peak. No need for EVs.
mos6507 wrote:
Mass produced EVs are supposed to be a means to prevent or seriously postpone TSHTF, not be a reaction to it.
Last year I felt the way you did. But everything is accelerating and I think the relative normalcy we're enjoying is unlikely to last much longer.
Mass produced EVs could postpone crap, but AFAIK demand reduction at/near peak can happen via many different avenues, EVs, while likely required in the long-run IMO, aren't required in the short. Heck, housing sales actually increased in CA in the suburbs recently, while certain locations barely saw a hit in pricing. It appears that oil prices are driving sales and construction (mostly apartments) from the inside out regardless of the slump. Why? I'm guessing people are looking for someplace cheaper/closer to work.
Iono. I've been on this site on and off since it popped up in 2004 IIRC, and have seen some pretty wild predictions about $100/bbl oil. Sure, it hurts the consumer, but was it zombie killin' time? Nah. The same goes for $200/bbl IMO. Not only will we see more short-run demand destruction if it goes to $200, but unless it does so within a year, long-run demand destruction will rear it's head. If it behaves anything like it did in the past we'll see a ~10+% drop in demand destruction before we even smell peak.
Not that we won't rock out to TEOTWAWKI. _________________
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:33 am Post subject: Re: Electric car maker poised to shock auto industry
Neccessity is a mother...wellof invention. You will see that as price goes up, people will put on their thinking caps and someone will come out with an idea or a way to increase mileage that will revolutionize the planet. THAT is the arabs greatest fear.
Once that happens, oil will be $30 again or less as they will try and get us to forget the new technology and come home to mama. Has happened over and over. You will see.
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) last ~25,000 cycles compared to the 1,000,000 ultracap modules are rated at.
