Evidence is mounting of a wholesale change in the way Americans commute. Motorists have driven roughly 30 billion fewer miles in the past six months compared with the same period a year ago, according to federal government estimates.
Meanwhile, commuters took 10.3 billion trips on public transportation last year, the most in 50 years — when the population was about 60 percent the current size — according to the American Public Transportation Association. Ridership is up 3.3 percent in the first three months of 2008 and 30 percent since 1995.
Those trends suggest growing numbers of Americans are reaching their tipping points in how much they'll spend for the freedom and luxury of personal automobile transportation.
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 5:36 am Post subject: Re: 30 billion fewer miles driven, and counting
What's really interesting IMO is that according to the EIA's April yoy production/import data, the percentage drop in demand is nearly twice the percent drop in VMT, the point being that it looks like Americans are driving less and driving more efficiently. Looks like we're seeing demand destruction and conservation at work. _________________
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 6:59 am Post subject: Re: 30 billion fewer miles driven, and counting
And since it is a world-wide market does it really matter if other nations are using more gasoline/diesel?
How will we know when world-wide demand is down?
First, I suppose, stockpiles will begin to build.
Then we will begin to see prices go down.
I would not be surprised to see these things. They are not disproof of the fundamental "doomer" position.
I do not know if demand destruction will out pace world-wide depletion rate or not. I do know that depletion is a one way trip and it is time to buckle the seat belt, regardless if the price of gas at the pump turns out to be a roller coaster or a rocket ship. _________________ "Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens" -Friedrich von Schiller
Someone else will burn it, don't worry. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 7:41 am Post subject: Re: 30 billion fewer miles driven, and counting
Because the demand destruction isn't enough. The demand destruction is lowering the price, without it, we'd probably have $200/bl by now. As far as demand destruction bringing back cheap oil, forget it. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 7:44 am Post subject: Re: 30 billion fewer miles driven, and counting
Quote:
Transportation consultant Alan Pisarski shares Reich's reluctance to declare the nation in the early stages of a commuter revolution. When looking at modes of travel, scale is important, Pisarski said. Mass transit accounts for only 1 percent of U.S. travel, so if it increases 20 percent, "it's still only 1.2 percent of travel," Pisarski said.
In addition, the recent decline in automobile travel isn't the result of people leaving their cars for public transportation. People are simply deferring trips, shortening them and driving less because of the cost.
The economic slowdown also plays a part, Pisarski said. Fewer people with jobs means fewer people driving to work and less economic activity, which results in less vehicle travel, particularly among trucks, because fewer goods are purchased and shipped. Recreational travel also takes a hit, as fewer people drive to the movies, malls and for vacations.
Fairly minor changes so far, all to be expected. Good changes, agreed, but we have a very long way to go and so far we're only taking the first baby steps.
If you extrapolate from their chart, to match the gas price peak of the early 80's (as a percentage of PCE), we can expect to get to ~$6.30 a gallon.
... And those prices ended when large new supplies came on line and world demand fell precipitously because of severe recessions. I.e. we haven't seen anything yet.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5905 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 3:39 pm Post subject: Re: 30 billion fewer miles driven, and counting
Quote:
According to AAA, the average two-car family now would spend about $6,200 a year to gas up its vehicles.
"That's unsustainable. At some point, the math begins to not work," said Stephen Reich, director of the Center for Urban Transportation Research at the University of South Florida.
The point being no matter how many billions of miles less driven, the cost of transportation fuel is going up as a proportion of household spending - reducing the overall standard of living.
OF2 and Mr. Reich may get some ideas here at PO.com if they really want to know what happens after the suburban way of life becomes "unsustainable". _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 9:43 pm Post subject: Re: 30 billion fewer miles driven, and counting
TreebeardsUncle wrote:
The coefficient of the elasticity of demand for gasoline in America is such that for every 14% rise in the price of gasoline, demand only falls 1%.
The long run and short run elasticity of oil are different. Short term, people don't have as many options for reducing consumption. Long term they can move, get a more efficient vehicle, work closer to home, etc... Here's a pdf on the subject. If you look at table four you can see the long-run elasticies tend to be much higher then the short-term elasticities reflecting the ability of consumers to change their behavior. _________________
Joined: Jun 29, 2008 Posts: 82 Location: San Luis Obispo, CA / San Jose, CA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 1:12 am Post subject: Re: 30 billion fewer miles driven, and counting
IF you take the percentage of income that each of those items individually contribute, you'll notice in 08' in comparison to the 70s, the total % of disposable income spent on fuel AND vehicles is less now then it was back then.... that will soon change. the Gas line (the bottom line on the chart) is going to rapidly increase.
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