I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Cloud9 wrote:
Outside an EMP burst from the sun or Yellow Stone blowing its top, those that wish for a demise of the United States and a total collapse of social order are succumbing to wishful thinking.
Another fine post! There are times that I don't agree with your analysis, but you're head and toes above most.
Cloud9 wrote:
Beans, booze, babes, bibles and bullets always sell well in hard times.
Priceless! _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Itsallcomindown wrote:
Jlw and Ludi
We are reading the same book but we're not on the same page. I wish I had the faith in humanity that you guys do but after seeing how horrible people in developing nations live, and seeing the terrible things that people can do to each other I have lost any faith that i once had. Desperate people will do anything to survive and those who desire power will do whatever it takes to make it appear as if they already have it. Terrible atrocities have always been comitted throughout history. Are we so naive and selfish to think that we have evolved from or grown out of this? At the end of the day it all reverts back to the law of the jungle.
If we revert back to the Law of the Jungle it's because we gave up on Rule of Law and GG will probably be right. That's where I object to his analysis! Even in New Orleans, the LOTJ lasted a very short amount of time and the only reason it did is because most people evacuated out of a very difficult and dangerous situation and the police simply left town. People sat in their houses surrounded by a toxic soup that criminals were willing to navigate.
Post peak, total break down of ROL will occur from time to time and here and there, but the only way the US will break down, as GG dreams about, is through widespread breakdown of the Rule of Law. It just isn't going to happen. If the police suddenly dissapeared from my neck of the woods, I'd be among the first forming a home guard.
Law of the Jungle will take over if people insist on staying home surrounded by boxes of freeze dried food and ammo. Some form of Rule of Law will be maintained as long as people are willing to get out and work with their neighbors. As long as people work together, Rule of Law will be preserved. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 11:02 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Ahh, the rule of law. It's a tricky thing. If things were to break down to the point that law enforcement left and you and your group of like minded people resorted to a home guard it wouldn't be law as we now know it, it would be your version of law which would probably consist of policies to protect your group. For example, if some people came and tried to take your livestock and this would mean your children starving, you would undoubtedly shoot these people if you were capable. That is not the law as we now know it. It will definately keep order, and it may very well become law in a changing world, but in the end, the concept of law is irrelevent. All that matters is that your children didn't starve. Take another example, a man in the inner city has no concept of obtaining food other than going to a grociery store. All of a sudden, food stops being transported, or food stamps get cancelled and food goes up to outragious prices that he can't afford. As he watches his family and himself starve, what law do you think he will obey? The laws of man, or the law of nature? The point is that without a government structure in place and people to uphold that governments decisions, all laws become relative to your particular situation. Right and wrong, moral and immoral, legal and illegal; these are all relative concepts. What an American Christian finds to be right and moral is completely different from what an islamic Saudi Arabian finds to be right and moral, just like a man who has plenty of food has a completely different concept of legal and illegal as does a man with no food.
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 1:43 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Well this crazy little insignificant country is re-arming fast.
The British Royal Navy has received a new class of whale-like submarine known as the Astute.
This monstrous submarine generates its own air and water and has a strike range of cruise missiles from English Channel to North Africa but the most surprising feature of this gigantic submarine is that it does not demand any fuel throughout its lifespan of 25 years. By this we can sense that it can sail round the globe 40 times continuously.
According to the contractor of BAE Systems in Barrow: It learnt a lot from US sub builder Electric Boat - namely to build sections of the sub vertically (hence the 12-storey construction towers at the plant) which saved on manpower.
The Astute specs comprise:
*Weight: 7,800 tons
*Length: 97m
*Time to build: 6 years 4 months
*Power: pressurized water reactor, fuelled for life
*Crew: 98
*Astute Combat Management System (ACMS) receives data from sonars and other sensors and, through advanced algorithms and data handling, displays real time images on the command consoles.
*Tomahawk Block IV cruise missile from Raytheon fired from 533mm torpedo tubes (range 1,000 miles, flies at 533mph)
*I-band navigation radars
*Thales Underwater Systems Sonar 2076
*Atlas Hydrographic echosounder, the DESO 25, is capable of precise depth measurements down to 10,000m.
*Rolls Royce PWR 2 pressurized water reactor
*2 Alsthom turbines
*Rolls Royce pump jet propulsor
Initially, three submarines are ordered by British Navy that will cost $2.33 billion each and are projected to come into service in 2009, 2010 and 2011.
With 2 new aircraft carriers on order, new joint strike fighters, new Trident nuclear subs also, all we need now is a WAR.
Gasmon _________________ Been there, Done that, Bought the tee-shirt
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Thank your jlw61 for your kindness. I love your state. Fine ground it is. If sugar sand and flat woods did not run in my veins I would consider moving there.
I am surrounded by citrus, cattle and thousands of acres of vegetables. It is hard to imagine total collapse in this environment. I am personal friends with the chief judge and the local sheriff. I don’t see these people as threats, I see them as friends.
My hobby brings me in contact with fellows that amuse themselves by shooting aspirin off of tooth picks at 100 hundred yards. You may think I am kidding, but I am not.
The woods are full of combat engineers, electricians and master machinist.
There is enough junk lying around to build a whole nother country. We can run our tractors off of methane or wood gas or granddaddy’s moon shine. People who think the world will end over no gas don’t get out much.
I saw a special on the History Cannel just last night about some Indian fellow that had built a battery out of cow dung. Just because we haven’t thought of a way out of this mess doesn’t mean there is no way out.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3228 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:25 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
What I do not understand about these debates is the propensity to drift into a 100% the nation is doomed position or a 100% "they will keep it together" position.
Seems to me that there is a lot of room for those with the power to make decisions have a lot of room to either get things right or get things wrong. They may even get things fantastically right or fantastically wrong.
So I don't have a strong opinion on the matter. Even if I put the odds at only a 2% chance that everything is going to fly apart, shouldn't I prepare accordingly? There is a less than 2% chance that my house will burn down, yet I buy insurance.
Now I do not know of an objective way to run the odds, in this case assessing the future is a subjective art and we will find different aspects of reality convincing. Lets face it, none of us have been through a set of "clinicals" on this issue so, even if we are well informed, we are all rookies.
Over the course of my lifetime (~40 more years or so) I guess I would have to say there is at least a 40%-60% chance of everything flying to pieces a la death in the cities and loneliness in the countryside (this in the USA, odd are different as well as the outcomes in different nations). So I prepare with those odds in mind.
My question would be is there a 1% chance that the other party's scenerio will come to fruition?
If so, are you buying insurance on the 1% risk? _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Cur, the thirties were not rosy. A quarter of the nation lost their jobs. People went hungry. There were riots in the streets and gangsters waged war on each other and the society at large. There were lynchings. Those were hard times. Even so, it was not the end of the world.
I think it will be wise for any person to prepare for the worst. Still if you look at it, people made money and lived well even at the height of the depression.
Put a seed in the ground. If it is not the dead of winter, water it and it will grow.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3228 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:59 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Cloud9 wrote:
Cur, the thirties were not rosy. A quarter of the nation lost their jobs. People went hungry. There were riots in the streets and gangsters waged war on each other and the society at large. There were lynchings. Those were hard times. Even so, it was not the end of the world.
I think it will be wise for any person to prepare for the worst. Still if you look at it, people made money and lived well even at the height of the depression.
Put a seed in the ground. If it is not the dead of winter, water it and it will grow.
No one said that they were rosy... there are some predictions, however, that some parts of the nation were a few months away from fomenting rebellion when FDR assumed the office.
We know how history turned out in one set of circumstances with one set of leadership leading a certain kind of people.
FDR is dead. So are the people he led. Perhaps we will have a repeat but maybe not.
1932 is not the worse that things can get. The Balkans, Rwanda, Haiti, that is the worse things can get.
I stand firm that we are (globally) homo sapiens. It is the height of arrogance to say that we are somehow fundamentally different that we (americans) are not capable of the same brutality of any other people. Heck, we are those people.
Last note on the great depression; we did not have the same unfunded mandates as we do today (in fact todays debts are a legacy of that time). We were also sitting on pre-peak Oklahoma and Texas which were exported for foreign currency. We are now import a majority of our crude.
This ain't great grandpa's depression. This is something different. Different circumstances and different people. Therefore it strikes me as simplistic to say "We made it through the dirty 30's ok so don't worry" _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1431 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
jlw61 wrote:
Even in New Orleans, the LOTJ lasted a very short amount of time and the only reason it did is because most people evacuated out of a very difficult and dangerous situation and the police simply left town. People sat in their houses surrounded by a toxic soup that criminals were willing to navigate.
And there are allegations that the so-called 'snipers' were actually Blackwater. _________________ Conservation is conservative
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. -- Charles Darwin
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Itsallcomindown wrote:
The point is that without a government structure in place and people to uphold that governments decisions, all laws become relative to your particular situation.
While you have some good points to ponder, I must respond first by pointing out that government is just as relative and uncertain as a group. Government is just a group of people who represent their group of people and that sets the rules and punishments for the area they govern.
Without government, the smaller groups tend to have similar crimes but dissimilar punishment. The larger group (government) evens things out so that people know what the crimes and punishments are for the larger area.
However, the Law of the Jungle is that the stronger takes what it wants from the weaker. The Rule of Law is basicaly (in it's true form) that there are rules that all must live by, discriminating against none. Quite a difference and I stand by my conclusions. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Last edited by jlw61 on Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:48 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Cloud9 wrote:
My hobby brings me in contact with fellows that amuse themselves by shooting aspirin off of tooth picks at 100 hundred yards. You may think I am kidding, but I am not.
I had a brother. who was a sniper in Vietnam, who did things like that. Such people are masters of their art.
Quote:
Hide and watch my friend, the future will unfold.
Unfortunately, while good advice, this is something I can not do. I am too active in trying to help avert disaster. All I can do is be thankful my state allows concealed carry and rely on my friends to help watch my back. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
What I do not understand about these debates is the propensity to drift into a 100% the nation is doomed position or a 100% "they will keep it together" position.
...
So I don't have a strong opinion on the matter. Even if I put the odds at only a 2% chance that everything is going to fly apart, shouldn't I prepare accordingly? There is a less than 2% chance that my house will burn down, yet I buy insurance.
...
My question would be is there a 1% chance that the other party's scenerio will come to fruition?
If so, are you buying insurance on the 1% risk?
Once again, a great queston by Cur!
Yes, you prepare for fire, flood, storm, government collapse, alien invasion, pandemic, ragnarok, roving hordes, famine, financial collapse and anything else that makes sense. To not prepare for something reasonable is insane, to not have at least a plan for a low order probability is foolish.
I have preps for PO, storm, fire, flood, and the usual suspects. Many of these preps have similar needs. I also have preps for some lower order probabilities which also coincide with PO needs. But one of the most important preps is knowing your neighbors. Neighbors can provide help at a moments notice if you've cultivated the relationship properly.
As far as what I think will happen, my WAG on chance of certin events occuring over next 10 years:
Cat 3+ storm hitting Virginia head on - 90%
Flooding in my area - 30%
$10 gasoline - 80%
Needing to purchase gasoline 10 years from now - 50%
End of gasoline for private use - 20%
Hard Resession - 50%
Depression - 30%
Total collapse of US dollar - 20%
End of Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security - 30%
Double digit inflation - 40%
Triple digit inflation - 10%
US Government collapse - 5%
Alien Invasion - 1%
Chances the 2012 group are right - 0.000000093% _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:42 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
This ain't great grandpa's depression. This is something different. Different circumstances and different people. Therefore it strikes me as simplistic to say "We made it through the dirty 30's ok so don't worry"
And to that I agree! We do face a future never experienced before in the history of man. Also, Americans are just as good/bad as any other people. However, we are not without resources and we are still a free people. Until both of those things change, we have a chance.
What I lament about is what could have been done with the money funneled into the Iraq war. I imagine we could have built a few nuclear plants, bunches of solar/wind farms, and thousands upon thousands of miles of light rail lines and told the ME to kiss off. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Last edited by jlw61 on Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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