I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.
A trend includes most of or ideally all the data, so unless we've posted info on food in every single region on the face of the Earth, what's here isn't a trend. As trends go, world food production per capita has been increasing. _________________
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1371 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:24 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
You and others have posted countless articles in this thread on isolated, localized food problems (for starters, read the very first article in the thread), then have the audacity to proclaim it is a "spreading food crisis." If that isn't cherry-picking, then nothing is.
It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.
Until then, however, the trend seems to be in the direction of need and all the counting of wheat berries before they are harvested will not change that.
Except that there is no "trend" in the direction of need. World per-capita agricultural production has actually gone up, not down.
Source = FAO _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3228 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:06 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Does "Agricultural Production" include those Ag products not going into people's mouths?
Quote:
Agricultural production includes the value of all crop and livestock products originating within a country for the base period of 1994– 1996. The index value portrays the disposable output (after deductions for livestock feed and seed for planting) of a country’s agriculture in comparison with the base period 1989– 1991. Thus, the production values show not only the relative ability of countries to produce food but also show whether or not that ability has increased or decreased over an 8- year period.
Biofuels would seem to be a use of "disposable output."
Again, the world is more complicated than you give it credit for being. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3228 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:58 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
yesplease wrote:
wisconsin_cur wrote:
It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.
A trend includes most of or ideally all the data, so unless we've posted info on food in every single region on the face of the Earth, what's here isn't a trend. As trends go, world food production per capita has been increasing.
I would add a follow up question.
Why, then, increased prices and decreasing stocks?
I do not think I have ever contended that the problem is only one of decreased harvests, it is also a matter of diverting food to fuel. It is also a problem of population growth. It is also a problem of national and international policies. There are probably a few other issues that I am not thinking of right now which also add to the crisis.
If I have ever said it was a problem just of decreased harvests then I was wrong. So is it good that calories per capita is going up? Sure, I guess, but it does not discount the problems. It does not even address the core arguments that I have made.
It is the over-simplification of my position and then selecting small bits of data, that over turn the over-simplification which is treated as if it is the sum total of the problem. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:25 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
There would be plenty of food if the americans would quit eating 4 times as much as they need. I went to all inclusive resort and the americans were embarrassing. They wasted enough food to feed a family every day. Good grief. OH>..by the way..i am an american but learned to eat off of an 8" plate and not the buffet plates etc.
What is with that. Why cant ppl see what that is doing to themselves. 100 extra calories a day is an extra 10 pounds a year. 100 cals is a small handful of most things. A snickers candy bar is 700 cals. Pepsi in big cup 600 cals, so you see the problem. People get enough calories from snacks every day to gain like hogs.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
I would add a follow up question.
Why, then, increased prices and decreasing stocks?
I do not think I have ever contended that the problem is only one of decreased harvests, it is also a matter of diverting food to fuel. It is also a problem of population growth. It is also a problem of national and international policies. There are probably a few other issues that I am not thinking of right now which also add to the crisis.
Surpluses were likely due to subsidization in the past. In any event I think you answered your own question. Seems typical of money. Pump and dump IMO.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
If I have ever said it was a problem just of decreased harvests then I was wrong. So is it good that calories per capita is going up? Sure, I guess, but it does not discount the problems. It does not even address the core arguments that I have made.
It is the over-simplification of my position and then selecting small bits of data, that over turn the over-simplification which is treated as if it is the sum total of the problem.
I'm not talking about your position, whatever it may be, outside of your last post. All I'm saying is that as trends go, per capita food production has been consistently rising. Anything to the contrary is alarmist to say the least. _________________
Heres a good website showing rainfall averages/anomalies the last 30 days... Its hard to find a lot of data for some areas of the world. _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
joelcolorado wrote:
There would be plenty of food if the americans would quit eating 4 times as much as they need. I went to all inclusive resort and the americans were embarrassing. They wasted enough food to feed a family every day. Good grief. OH>..by the way..i am an american but learned to eat off of an 8" plate and not the buffet plates etc.
What is with that. Why cant ppl see what that is doing to themselves. 100 extra calories a day is an extra 10 pounds a year. 100 cals is a small handful of most things. A snickers candy bar is 700 cals. Pepsi in big cup 600 cals, so you see the problem. People get enough calories from snacks every day to gain like hogs.
This assumes I should do without for the benefit of another. Why? I'll eat, or not eat, as much as I want (or can afford to).
Now I do out of general principle (eat normally and responsibly) but the point remains. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:02 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Oh i get it. My wife is a doctor and she gets it. All the whales coming in knees hurt, back hurts, diabetic, heart disease, kidney failure, lungs bad, cant move, etc. So yah...eat it ALL for gods sake and keep her in business.
THere is a thot that we are all our brothers keeper and YES, if we all thot that there woudl be enough to go around. So dont complain bout the price of gas as other ppl. are doing what you are doing, using as much as ty want IF they can pay for it.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4863 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Joel-
Then if a doctor tells them that they have to exercise, stop eating certain things they just go see a different doctor. I've known people who have done this. People just don't want to hear it, they'd rather keep doing what they've been doing.
Could you imagine what would happen to the health of this country if people cut out fast food and exercised an hour per day? _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:34 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
YES, the economy would be saved. Cuz all that money spent on healthcare would go to Walmart. hah.
I know, they ask for a pill to heal their knee. all the while 400 lbs of ugly fat is pushing that old knee to death. Or for something else.
I hate to excercise but decided I could do it while watching TV. Got a bike to ride indoors and time goes so fast while watching a show. An hour slides past. If the television was hooked up to the pedals, we woudl be all bone thin and in good shape. hah.
Just a sad state of affairs. NOW for the KILLER COMMENT> I truly think someone needs to LIMIT how much food you get every day.
Can you IMAGINE the screams? OMG, how dare you make me be healthy. But soon insurance will be charging more just like life insurance does now. And rightfully so. Why do I pay more for mine so ppl can eat like pigs and use up MY insurance pool money. Let em pay if they are a risk.
Joined: Dec 09, 2004 Posts: 493 Location: Around somewhere
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 5:01 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Well, I've made my monthly trek across Illinois and The corn is certainly up. The old saying was knee high by the forth of July. It's well past that. Man this stuff grows fast!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1371 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
I would add a follow up question.
Why, then, increased prices and decreasing stocks?
1. The low dollar. Agricultural commodities, like oil, are priced in dollars. A lower dollar means the farmer needs to get paid more dollars to get the same value for a fixed amount of agricultural product.
2. In the case of wheat, the reduced stocks are, in large part, a result of several dry years in Australia. This, frankly, is one reason why I'm paying extra attention to the weather in Australia in this thread.
3. In the case of corn, increased use from ethanol has no doubt led to a drawing-down of stocks, even though production the past few years in the US (at least until this year), has gone up significantly.
4. #2 and #3 have also no doubt contributed to the increased price of the two grains, but they aren't the only factor (see #1).
5. I don't have any stats, but I have a sneaking suspicion the high costs of the grains are discouraging excess storage. When something gets expensive, it isn't worth it to let it sit around unused, so the "agricultural-industrial complex" is probably taking a "lean inventory" approach as much as they can. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3228 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
lean storage started when prices were depressed. Why pay for storage (adding to your cost) when prices are so low (it is so cheap to buy if you want it later) and the margin on storage was high in relation to the price you could get from the product.
In other words the idea was to sell it before you loose any more money than you have already lost. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
JAJJAL VILLAGE, INDIA—Four decades after the so-called Green Revolution enabled this vast nation to feed itself, some farmers are turning their backs on modern agricultural methods—the use of modified seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides—in favor of organic farming.
This is not a matter of producing gourmet food for environmentally attuned consumers but rather something of a life-and-death choice in villages like this one, where the benefits of the Green Revolution have been coupled with unanticipated harmful consequences from chemical pollution.
As driving their actions, the new organic farmers cite the rising costs of seed, fertilizer, and pesticides, and concerns that decades of chemical use is ruining the soil. But many are also revolting against what they see as the environmental degradation that has come with the new farming techniques, particularly the serious pollution of drinking water that village residents blame for causing cancer and other diseases.
"People are fed up with chemical farming," says Amarjit Sharma, a farmer for 30 years who began organic farming four years ago. "The earth is now addicted to the use of these chemicals."
For now, their numbers are small, perhaps 5 percent of farmers around the agricultural region in the Punjab state, known for its cotton production. But this is a trend that could become important if their numbers grow and cut into India's agricultural productivity in an era of tightening global food supplies.
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