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Hogan
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Oct 25, 2004
Posts: 1298
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 Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:33 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| So what are the bets for gasoline prices this summer and fall? I'm thinking that just one hurricane that hits hard could easily cause $7+ gasoline instantly in the US. |
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2464
Location: South of Atlanta
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:38 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| A "Fish" storm is one that just affects the fishies out to sea. Although Rockman is right also, there isnt any drilling in the Central or Western Atlantic that I know about. |
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wisconsin_cur
Moderator
Joined: May 10, 2007
Posts: 2924
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| Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 10:17 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | | A "Fish" storm is one that just affects the fishies out to sea. Although Rockman is right also, there isnt any drilling in the Central or Western Atlantic that I know about. |
While it is steering clear of the GOM and the oil platforms it does appear as if it might be a little more than a fish storm. I guess it is just a matter of how much it will strengthen. It looks like it will steer clear of the warmest water and then hit the east coast.
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"Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith |
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Homesteader
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2007
Posts: 1167
Location: Central NC
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| Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:09 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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This is the latest from NOAA: | Quote: | "BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY ...BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...37.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB." |
Moving west. We may not have a miss on GOM yet.
_________________
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill |
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TonisD
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 12, 2007
Posts: 166
Location: Estonia
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:49 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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It seems Bertha forgot to read the forecasts and is heading straight to west, instead of north.
More knowledgeable people than me think that a GOM hit has a bigger chance of happening than 1%. That's bad news. |
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Hogan
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Oct 25, 2004
Posts: 1298
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:23 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| TonisD wrote: | | It seems Bertha forgot to read the forecasts and is heading straight to west, instead of north. More knowledgeable people than me think that a GOM hit has a bigger chance of happening than 1%. That's bad news. |
And it's only the beginning of July. There is a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the GOM sometime this year. That would be catastrophic to oil prices say the least. |
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frankthetank
Fusion
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 4415
Location: Southwest WI
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 8:29 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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This ****could**** be a good thing if it could slow down and stall over the southeast section of the country. That areas needs precipitation badly.
This one is going to be fun to watch.
_________________
"Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07 |
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idiom
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 23, 2004
Posts: 474
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:34 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| The faster and harder PO artifically hits the better. At the moment, Iraq being out of commision, Katrina and Al Gore are saving our asses from PO. |
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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1061
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| Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:01 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Officialy Hurricane Bertha: link |
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Tuike
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 10, 2005
Posts: 414
Location: Finland
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| Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Finnish tv stations MTV3's web news says Bertha is already a category 3 hurricane.
Original Article
Google translation |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3681
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| Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Station 42055 While you are watching Bertha, some of us are watching this buoy in the Bay of Campeche. There are 6 foot waves, every 7 seconds, and 21 kt winds. This is pretty close to enough to get them to shut down Cantarell and/or export shipments out of this region. |
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Mominator
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 26, 2008
Posts: 106
Location: FL
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:20 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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2008 Hurricane Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
Cool--I'll probably get to have a hurricane by my name this year.
I feel like a dork now.
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~Laura
"If you weren't smart enough to plan ahead then Doom on you!" ~Dodo bird |
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1627
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Mominator wrote: | | Cool--I'll probably get to have a hurricane by my name this year. |
Here's hoping you're a cat 5 and you go right up the Houston Ship Channel, but not before they evacuate everybody first!
I only root for that because we need a big wakeup call in this country. They all think being dependent on Middle-eastern oil is bad, but they don't know being dependent on all oil is bad.
_________________
Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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frankthetank
Fusion
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 4415
Location: Southwest WI
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| Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:06 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Well... We might be on to something here. Invest 94L is looking OK this morning and might want to go into the Caribbean. From there it COULD take the turn northward. This will be one to keep an eye on. Any SNIFF of this thing going towards the gulf and we'll see a nice spike in oil prices.
_________________
"Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07 |
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no_name
Tar Sands
Joined: May 08, 2006
Posts: 43
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| Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Invest 94L forecasted to go northwest in the carribean by one or two of the models...should make for a fun week ahead:
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