Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1030 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
DantesPeak wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Nicholai wrote:
OF2, how can you base your idea on one example?
You're correct, one example does not make a trend - but then, I didn't say it was a trend, I merely showed it was possible. The reasons for this particular example, however, could be interesting, and I believe eastbay touched on many of them above.
I saw the chart and it reminded me of South Korea and Turkey, both of which, like Mexico, are middle-income nations whose oil demand has been flat over approximately the same time. Not all developing nations have increasing oil consumption.
I already explained in the SK thread that SK had been exporting a lot of gasoline, and as internal consumption rises, exports to the US and other places were recently back or cut off (to the US). I guess you didn't even bother to read the responses to your own posts or other posts in the thread.
Looking at oil consumption without considering net product imports/exports is useless.
Yes, I did see that. I'm not sure you realized it, but if SK's oil consumption is flat/declining, and yet they are net exporters of refined gasoline, that means their internal gasoline consumption has actually been declining at a greater rate than their crude oil consumption. In other words, if it weren't for the fact that they're net exporters of refined gasoline and other petroleum products, their oil consumption would have fallen even more. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5501 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:20 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
OilFinder2 wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Nicholai wrote:
OF2, how can you base your idea on one example?
You're correct, one example does not make a trend - but then, I didn't say it was a trend, I merely showed it was possible. The reasons for this particular example, however, could be interesting, and I believe eastbay touched on many of them above.
I saw the chart and it reminded me of South Korea and Turkey, both of which, like Mexico, are middle-income nations whose oil demand has been flat over approximately the same time. Not all developing nations have increasing oil consumption.
I already explained in the SK thread that SK had been exporting a lot of gasoline, and as internal consumption rises, exports to the US and other places were recently back or cut off (to the US). I guess you didn't even bother to read the responses to your own posts or other posts in the thread.
Looking at oil consumption without considering net product imports/exports is useless.
Yes, I did see that. I'm not sure you realized it, but if SK's oil consumption is flat/declining, and yet they are net exporters of refined gasoline, that means their internal gasoline consumption has actually been declining at a greater rate than their crude oil consumption. In other words, if it weren't for the fact that they're net exporters of refined gasoline and other petroleum products, their oil consumption would have fallen even more.
Your are making conclusions that may or may not be true.
SK's oil product consumption is down 1% recently after growing for many years.
It's possible that they imported unfinshed gasoline to produce finsihed gasoline, which doesn't show up in oil consumption figures. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
DP, why give this guy the time of day?
It's like Socrates trying to convince a 4 year old that eating his vegetables would be a good move. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
OilFinder2 wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
And your point is?
Just because a developing nation subsidizes the price of gas to their consumers does not mean their consumption is going to increase - a claim which has become almost axiomatic on this board.
And what does this have to do with "talk about declining production in Cantarell" and the truth????
How does this in anyway affect oil decline in Mexico?
What truth are we missing? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:58 am Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
Cashmere wrote:
DP, why give this guy the time of day?
It's like Socrates trying to convince a 4 year old that eating his vegetables would be a good move.
BINGO!
There's a reason why OilFinder2 is on my ignore list.
My tolerance level for trolls have grown thin over the years.
The ignore button is probably the best "feature" this forum has.
Rapidly falling production in Mexico’s aging Cantarell oil field is part of the problem. Also significant, though, is the rising number of cars on Mexican roads. They have nearly doubled, to almost 16 million, in the last decade, and gasoline consumption is growing 5 percent a year.
Although overall oil consumption may be flat, gasoline consumption in that crazy land is about 5% per year. I think if you will search the PO.com archives, you will see that it increased about 6.5% between 2006 and 2007.
This, of course, is totally unsustainable, as the local government down there has finally figured out.
Indonesia flipped from exporting oil to importing it three years ago because of sagging production in depleted fields and rising demand. Iran, Algeria and Malaysia are vulnerable in the next decade. Most oil experts view Mexico as the next country likely to flip, in as little as five years. Rapidly falling production in Mexico's aging Cantarell oil field is part of the problem. Also significant, though, is the rising number of cars on Mexican roads. They have nearly doubled, to almost 16 million, in the last decade, and gasoline consumption is growing 5 percent a year. In Mexico City the other day, a bricklayer named Jaime Guerrero arrived at a local Chevrolet dealership. His extended family cried "bravo!" as he signed the papers for his first car.
"To have a new car in my name is a dream transformed into reality," said Guerrero, 26. He and his family piled in and weaved through the chaotic traffic of the capital, hunting for a priest to douse the car with holy water. "I don't worry about the climate or shortages of oil in the world," Guerrero said. "I just worry if gasoline prices go up."
Try again, OF2. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:06 am Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
the reason is simple. The actual Oil used per Mexican is Up dramatically. There isnt very many Mexicans left that are'nt in the US illegally.If it wasnt for San Diego residents driving accross the border to fil up, the TOTAL Mexican consumption would be down year after year.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:22 am Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
DantesPeak wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Nicholai wrote:
OF2, how can you base your idea on one example?
You're correct, one example does not make a trend - but then, I didn't say it was a trend, I merely showed it was possible. The reasons for this particular example, however, could be interesting, and I believe eastbay touched on many of them above.
I saw the chart and it reminded me of South Korea and Turkey, both of which, like Mexico, are middle-income nations whose oil demand has been flat over approximately the same time. Not all developing nations have increasing oil consumption.
I already explained in the SK thread that SK had been exporting a lot of gasoline, and as internal consumption rises, exports to the US and other places were recently back or cut off (to the US). I guess you didn't even bother to read the responses to your own posts or other posts in the thread.
Looking at oil consumption without considering net product imports/exports is useless.
We should remember that even flat crude consumption will be viewed as an 'increase' in usage once oil production starts to decline.
On the news they highlight new oil discoveries as well as tar sands and the like, putting much hope in these areas. But we will need new oil finds just to 'stand still' and replace the depletion of our old wells.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5501 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
Can someone explain to the 'kids' here that Mexico may have a fuel consumption problem?
Quote:
Mexican gasoline supplies being limited; diesel crisis ongoing
By Omar Millan Gonzalez
July 7, 2008
TIJUANA – In the midst of a diesel shortage that has left truck and bus drivers chasing meager supplies, Mexico's national oil monopoly has discreetly informed gas station owners that their gasoline sales will also be limited.
Meanwhile, the diesel crisis showed no signs of easing. It started a week ago and led to truck and bus drivers waiting hours in line at gas stations for a chance to buy diesel, when they could find it at all.
San Diego Union Tribune _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1030 Location: Seattle
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
People here have given 1 link to a peakoil.com story about a 1-year, 5+% rise in Mexican oil consumption, and 1 link to someone's blog. I'd be more than happy to be shown that Mexican gasoline consumption is going through the roof, but not even the BP annual statistical review carries such figures, and a search everywhere else has come up dry. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2956 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:43 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
Check the EIA data on exports to Mexico, then. Exports from the US took off in '97 while imports from Mexico reached a level they maintained until recently. There's no explanation for that except a boost in consumption of finished products. EIA says gasoline is over 60 percent of Mexican imports, too. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1030 Location: Seattle
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
^
I have no doubt Mexico is importing more gasoline. But as everyone knows, their domestic production is declining, so even if their consumption was flat, they would still be importing more oil or at least gasoline.
So I'm not sure that really answers the question. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
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