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NoWorries
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 05, 2008
Posts: 73
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 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:57 am Post subject: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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Are we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end?
I think the odds are > 50% on that. I also think the likelihood of a stock market crash is > 50% by year end, and that will almost certainly depress oil prices even further. |
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VMarcHart
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 26, 2008
Posts: 576
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:00 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| NoWorries wrote: | | Are we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end? |
I'm not holding my breath on that. Why would it go down? |
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AlexdeLarge
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 20, 2008
Posts: 419
Location: I have a whole ward
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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I don't think its reflecting the supply side of the equation. Looks like the "Speculators" are now anticipating recession and heavy demand destruction.
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Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well. |
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JoeW
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 592
Location: The Pit of Despair
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:08 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| VMarcHart wrote: | | NoWorries wrote: | | Are we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end? |
I'm not holding my breath on that. Why would it go down? |
Decreased US consumption lately would have to be the main driver to push prices back down. The demand-side response to high prices is slow.
I think a retreat to $100 is possible, but there probably need to be some reports to show that inventories are building first due to decreased demand.
I wouldn't bet on it.
Prices will be volatile in the short term, but the overall long-term trend will be higher, just as Colin Campbell predicted. |
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Kingcoal
Expert
Joined: Sep 29, 2004
Posts: 2330
Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:29 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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Demand destruction will cause the price to fluctuate in the short term, but I don't care about the short term. IMO, the long term trend is up, up and away.
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"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money |
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NeoPeasant
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 997
Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:36 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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They said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."
The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.
_________________
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning. |
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VMarcHart
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 26, 2008
Posts: 576
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| NeoPeasant wrote: | | They said of the 1930's depression, "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar". Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar." |
I like that.
| NeoPeasant wrote: | | The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices. |
Something to be said about this. There's so much discorrelation --does this word exist?-- between oil and gas, that even if oil dropped to $100, gas still has a lot to catch up. Consummers pay for gas, not oil. |
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Cashmere
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 27, 2008
Posts: 1499
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:59 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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Don't let every 5 or 10 dollar drop sway you.
When the price gets low enough, there is going to be a major spike back up.
Big players out there are licking their chops waiting to sniff bottom of dip. When they sniff - bam.
There are market players and forces well beyond what we can imagine.
Who knows, maybe there is motivation to suppress price to get short interest built for later squeezing.
In the end, oil moves up. If you have a 2 month long position, worry. If you have a 2 year long position, "what, me worry?"
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group. |
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CoachT
Coal
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
Posts: 9
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:11 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time. |
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4144
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:14 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| CoachT wrote: | | If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time. |
Why? Do you have some inside information suggesting oil is soon going out of fashion?
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Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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Cashmere
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 27, 2008
Posts: 1499
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| CoachT wrote: | | If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time. |
You have gotta love this.
Nothing like random quotes on the Internet.
Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm.
Hah!
Thanks random Internet guy.
Let me ask you this - how should I invest the money I've already made off of oil?
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group. |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 7266
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| CoachT wrote: | | If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time. |
If international govts. are able to synchronize their plans to reregulate the energy exchanges, oil should drop back to 100.00 per barrel. It was the main topic of the G8 conference. Is this what you are thinking too? |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 7266
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:26 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| Cashmere wrote: |
Big players out there are licking their chops waiting to sniff bottom of dip. When they sniff - bam.
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Have you been following recent economic/political developments? |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 7266
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:27 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| NeoPeasant wrote: | They said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."
The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices. |
You are going way too far the other way. We will still see an inflationary depression that will set the floor under the price pretty high, but bring the ceiling much lower. |
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Peleg
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 20, 2008
Posts: 391
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:59 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go? |
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| Clearly it is heading back to $35 per barrel. |
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