Another Record ($147.27)

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 5727

$136.10 look at it go.
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lowem · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

Crude oil tumbles, collapses, falls off the cliff, is headed back to $50 by this time next year, goes out of fashion as a fuel of choice :

$135.82
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lowem · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

$135.23

Here's the part where we do the $10 swings in the downward direction. Let's have some $50 oil predictions from the media, shall we?
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eastbay · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

10%, 20%, 30% and larger temporary corrections will not be uncommon as we ratchet our way deep into triple digit oil prices. What we've seen in the past few days is a 6% correction so far. There may be quite a ways more to go, but it'll soon go back up.
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kilik · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 13, 2007 Posts: 22 Location: Norway

A small $30 correction I would guess. Then when everyone think we'll going back to "normal" prices again it will rise to $160 within a few months.

sjn · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:53 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 5727

chuck6877 · Intermediate Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 528

If this stays above the 40 day moving average there's nothing to worry about. If we go very far below $132.64 and close below it then look out below. We could see as a low something between $100-$115 if we go below the 40 dma over the next month or so.....

Oh and Lowem this gentleman thinks $60 easily sometime in the beginning of next year!!!:
Jul 07-- The Outlook for Inflation and the Likelihood of $60 Oil- Hussman Funds

I take it he doesn't believe there's a supply and demand problem? Smile

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 5727

lowem · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

lowem · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

Hogan · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

Not to worry. After a major price run-up, oil price usually drops back down some. But then again shoots up and starts breaking new records soon after that. 3 steps forward, one step back. $150 oil by the end of next week. I laugh my a$$ off when I see cornucopians say this is all a price bubble that's about to pop. I don't understand how some people can stay in denial with so much evidence to the contrary. Oh well.

*edit*

Anyone see a trend in the oil price chart below? Notice how there always a price drop before the next record-breaking rally? Each recent rally has increased oil prices by about $10 from each previous record. Next price rally should max out at perhaps $155 and then fall some again. And then after that, $165. Etc, Etc. Seems that price rallies last about 4 weeks on average lately. So perhaps we can expect about an $10 oil price increase per month average from now on. This would theoretically put the price of oil at about $200 by December 2008 if prices continue following this current trend. By the way, oil is already up a dollar again to about $137.

Oil rebounds slightly after second big drop
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lowem · Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:31 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

Welcome back to $138 oil.
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lowem · Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:41 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)

... oops, back to $137 again. Quite a ride today.
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patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1521

From the "Rumors" section of Tickerforum:

QUOTE:

"Rumors from Dubai regarding Lehman's Oil trades...using fed open window funds to speculate on oil (long)...on pre-knowledge regarding Israel making threats and practice bombing runs toward Iran.

Arabs got wind of this and shorted it hard over the 4th weekend causing Lehman to get caught "holding long" over the weekend and getting massive margin calls. Fed closed the window to Lehman and now banks pulling lines, deep pockets pulling funds and fellow IBs refusing to do business.

After Iran got wind of all this they agreed to discuss EU proposals in middle of 4th weekend which caused oil to drop hard Monday.

Now AP, trying to prop oil, seems to be making up news as they good along about Iran having war games (most say it is just a small group doing routine activity) and about Iran stating that they refuse to stop enrichment (Rumor that Iran actually ready to talk to EU at a very near date)."

Link

If there is any truth in this, it would explain a lot of things, including the drop in oil prices.
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