How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3251 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Peleg wrote:
Clearly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.
You're a comedian this morning!
My guess in the "PO Challenge Pool" is that the lowest it will get is $116. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:19 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
The lowest it will get is back to (or just under) the long-term trendline on the monthly chart going back to 1998. When we had the big correction a few years ago, down to 55 or whatever, it held the trendline (actually bounced off it hard). I would guess that trendline is now in the $75 -80 range, moving a bit higher every day.
Here's what I am keeping in mind. If we are at peak now, there are roughly 1 trillion barrels left of economically recoverable oil. There are 6.7 billion humans. That is between 100 and 150 barrels per person. Each US citizen uses approx 25 per year(maybe 22 or 23 now). Theoretically, each US citizens' fair allotment will be gone in less than six years.
Also, keep in mind the number of cars.
USA - 750 cars per 1,000 people
China - 4 cars per 1,000 people, but selling 500,000 units per month.
India - $2,500 Tata car so all 500 million middle class Indians can drive!
ELM shows net exports will decline 75% by 2031.
Long-term, the trend is up, unless we in the US can suddenly turn Amish overnight!
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
There's been no indication that the long term trend is reversing. I'd bet on a bounce tomorrow at around $134. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
smallpoxgirl wrote:
There's been no indication that the long term trend is reversing. I'd bet on a bounce tomorrow at around $134.
Does it really matter though? Mine eyes have seen the doom of the oil depletion curve, it's truth is marching on...
Let 'em bilk more people out of their imaginary dollars. Spend 'em while you can. The truth is that the game is over.
Suppose for example that demand deconstructs to the level where we see a huge decline in prices to $10 per barrel. That does not undo the depletion curve it only alters it's shape a bit. And guess what, at this point only demand destruction is really going to bring price down majorly so there you have it. We are between a recession and hard place.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:44 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Cashmere wrote:
Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm.
Good one Cash. I bet you were thinking; "let me see here, should I, a man with 6 figures take advice from a guy who probably has a negative net worth...? No thanks, I'll pass."
I've had a similiar experience. My current advisor from the company my retirement $ are with wanted to meet with me and go over my choices and I declined. He was flabbergasted. Why he inquired, don't you want to go over how your money is doing? To which I replied, "I track it everytime my Yahoo! homepage comes up." The fund I have my money in is on there and I can see at a click how its been doing. Besides I said, I have it in the best long-term performing fund there is, anything you suggest would probably get me a worse return..." Cruel I know but I loved it.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
It'll drop all the way down to $200, after the rise to $235. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Like I've said campers, don't let the jittery drops fool you . . .
The only way out is up, and everybody who understands the issues understands that conclusion. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 469 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
TreeFarmer wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money. So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm.
Good one Cash. I bet you were thinking; "let me see here, should I, a man with 6 figures take advice from a guy who probably has a negative net worth...? No thanks, I'll pass."
It's outside the original thread --Oil is Dropping. How low will it go?--, but I can't resist to throw my 2 cents. We often despise. A pity. So, you 2 are saying that unless your local Rolls-Royce salesperson drives a Rolls-Royce, you're not buying a Rolls-Royce ? It reminds me of when IBM gave Gates the Heisman, and Gates went on to retire the 3rd wealthiest man on Earth.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:16 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Peleg wrote:
Clearly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.
Thank you, Daniel Yergin. _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4037 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Ultimately, demand destruction will be in a foot race with production decline rates.
This phenomenon will prove baffling to people who can't understand why prices remain persistently high (or even rise) no matter how much demand destruction takes place. _________________
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 985 Location: Where walking makes you a wierdo
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
threadbear wrote:
NeoPeasant wrote:
They said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."
The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.
You are going way too far the other way. We will still see an inflationary depression that will set the floor under the price pretty high, but bring the ceiling much lower.
The association of paper money figures to items of real intrinsic value is far from an exact science. Whether we have an inflationary or a deflationary depression, the one thing I am sure of is that J6P will no longer have the means to buy nearly as much as he is accustomed to. Maybe we should quote the price of oil in hrs of median wage/barrel _________________ The knowledge to survive post peak will not come from our laboratories. It will come from our museums.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
VMarcHart wrote:
TreeFarmer wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money. So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm.
Good one Cash. I bet you were thinking; "let me see here, should I, a man with 6 figures take advice from a guy who probably has a negative net worth...? No thanks, I'll pass."
It's outside the original thread --Oil is Dropping. How low will it go?--, but I can't resist to throw my 2 cents. We often despise. A pity. So, you 2 are saying that unless your local Rolls-Royce salesperson drives a Rolls-Royce, you're not buying a Rolls-Royce ? It reminds me of when IBM gave Gates the Heisman, and Gates went on to retire the 3rd wealthiest man on Earth.
Spoken like a man with no money to invest.
When a man is selling me a Rolls Royce, then he is selling me a Rolls Royce.
When a man is selling me his "financial expertise", then he is, after all, selling me himself, is he not?
So, if a man wants to sell himself to me as an expert in investment, then I'd want to see behavior that exemplifies his expertise.
Getting paid 45k a year to sit in a cube farm with your BA in economics/finance does not, in my opinion, exemplify such expertise.
And TF is right - the guy working at Stank of America as the cube farm financial expert very likely has a massively negative Net Worth.
Minimally, I'd want to follow him out to the parking lot to see what he drives.
He gets in a Honda Civic, bump him up one notch.
He gets in a Land Rover/Jeep/Any American Car/Any SUV, then he is not going to touch my money. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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