How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4037 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:43 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
The perfect investment advisor would arrive at our meeting on a bicycle with his BOB over his shoulder.
He would say to me: "For the first hour we talk you're going to think I'm crazy. After the second hour you're going to think I'm brilliant. After the third hour you're going to be asking me how much I will sell you this bugout bag for. At the end of the conversation, I won't recommend anything to you, I will simply ask you what the obvious course of action seems to be."
As the meeting ended, he would give me his bugout bag as a gift (which I would snatch and hold closely). I would walk him out and there would be a stretch Prius limousine with a bike rack on the back and his chauffer would be loading his bike onto it.
As he drove away I would look at his business card and see that the only way to contact him would be by HAM radio. _________________
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 469 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Cashmere wrote:
If a man wants to sell himself to me as an expert in investment, then I'd want to see behavior that exemplifies his expertise.
So you can tell all about a person's behavior by looking at the cube in which it sits. You're too smart for me. Please remind me to show up at our meeting dressed in the 3-piece Italian suit, stretch limo, Rolex, bling-bling, etc. Appearances have always sold a lot.
Joined: May 13, 2007 Posts: 592 Location: Athabasca, Alberta
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
You mean I can take my SUV out of mothballs. Hold on Gertrude here we go! _________________ Appuis ait fabrum esse suae quemque fortunae.
Alias Redneck
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1952 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
NoWorries wrote:
It's clearly trending down now.
After two days of falls, that's a clear trend? Was it a clear trend a couple of weeks ago, before it started to rise again, with that huge jump a week ago? How about the clear trend in the latter part of May, when it fell from 134 to 124?
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 3:07 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
CoachT wrote:
If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.
I'm still interested in hearing your reasoning/information behind this statement. _________________ ~Laura
"If you weren't smart enough to plan ahead then Doom on you!" ~Dodo bird
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
CoachT wrote:
Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.
Six figures in a checking account as liquid funds probably represents only a fraction of the total, no? _________________ ~Laura
"If you weren't smart enough to plan ahead then Doom on you!" ~Dodo bird
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Mominator wrote:
CoachT wrote:
Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.
Six figures in a checking account as liquid funds probably represents only a fraction of the total, no?
Mominator, if we were both available, I'd be sending a car to pick you up for dinner right about now.
Never keep too much cash in checking - that's what I always say.
_________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:54 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Cashmere wrote:
Mominator wrote:
CoachT wrote:
Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.
Six figures in a checking account as liquid funds probably represents only a fraction of the total, no?
Mominator, if we were both available, I'd be sending a car to pick you up for dinner right about now.
Never keep too much cash in checking - that's what I always say.
You can obviously afford a whole lotta love, if your avatar rings true.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
As far as the little side thread going on about investment adivce, my thouhgts have always been to take advice from people who have proven over time they can make and hang on to money.
Most likely the investment advisor sitting in a cube farm is a young guy who has not proven anything yet that I would consider noteworthy. Before the current young guy the company had me assigned to an older guy, by older I would say he was early 60's. From talking to him I got the impression I had more money than he did even though I was 20 years younger. Now, I've always heard that you can do well as far as income selling financial products, much better than I do teaching at a university. Given that, I wouldn't take advice from him either because I felt that he should have been much richer than me.
I guess if I'm going to take advice from someone they have to be able to "show me the money" as in they've made it for themselves. Now, if they really want to impress me, they can take me to the marina, and in a play on the old joke, they can show me the customer's yachts.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5328 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Oil is going to turn around as early as tommorow. Mid-month in July the US will experience a signficant drop in oil imports due shipment declines from Nigeria, Mexico, and yes, even Saudi Arabia.
When it becomes apparent that crude inventories on hand are heading towards low levels, I would not be surprised if we hit a new high for oil about the end of July or early August. However that is not a specific prediction.
Due to US monetary policy, maybe best described by Bernanke today who said - to paraphrase - we face an unusal short term situation that may continue for a long long time.
That means full speed ahead for inflation. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Kingcoal wrote:
Demand destruction will cause the price to fluctuate in the short term, but I don't care about the short term. IMO, the long term trend is up, up and away.
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