For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
cualcrees wrote:
Holy crap!! I live in Mexico and I can tell you that most - if not all - people are completely clueless about PO; even more so, they don't want to know.
To them is most an issue of "privatization vs. state ownership"; not about oil depletion.
I've tried talking to some people about it but I only get blank stares or the usual "someone, somehow, will come up with a solution someday".
This is really scary stuff.
Bienvenidos al Club de Peak Oil. He tenido la misma experiencia, hablando con la gente aqui. No sabe, ni quiere saber.
Estamos en una situacion muy mala.
Creo que la unica solucion es la communidad.
Nosotros tenemos mas dinero, pero ustedes en Mexico tienen mas communidad.
Va a ser muy interesante. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: May 28, 2008 Posts: 68 Location: Leon, Gto. Mexico
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Thank you for your comments!
@Dante:
I didn't get the feeling that you were against Mexico, so no problem!
You know what I've been thinking lately? From what I understand, the U.S. gets a lot of its imported oil from Mexico; so it worries me to think what could eventually happen if my government where to decide - specially now that our oil production is in BIG decline -, to stop selling it to the U.S. and to conserve it for domestic use.
Do you envision a scenario like that happening? If so, how do you think the U.S. government would react?
Joined: May 28, 2008 Posts: 68 Location: Leon, Gto. Mexico
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:18 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
[quote="ROCKMAN"]cualcrees,
I'll second Dante's statement. I've spent in Mexico...did field work there as a young geologist a lifetime ago. I've always felt the Mexican people could really develop their society if they could take control from the elite power structure. But knowledge is power and the state did a great job of keeping them in the dark for generations. It will very sickening to watch their realization that they have been truly abandoned by those who pretended to be their protectors.
Yeah, the general feeling here in Mexico, is that all of our politicians are crooks who are only in it for the money; we've been robed blind for generations and, truth be told, I don't see it stopping anytime soon... (I guess it's like that everywhere, right!? ) God knows what's gonna happen once the people in Mexico realize the truth about our "precious" oil and its demise.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 2:25 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Quote:
You know what I've been thinking lately? From what I understand, the U.S. gets a lot of its imported oil from Mexico; so it worries me to think what could eventually happen if my government where to decide - specially now that our oil production is in BIG decline -, to stop selling it to the U.S. and to conserve it for domestic use.
Do you envision a scenario like that happening? If so, how do you think the U.S. government would react?
Knowing what you [hopefully] know from [recent] history and how American society works, are you really unable to reach the only logical conclusion to this scenario or are you simply baiting for the answer you already know?
The writing has been on the wall for all those who care to read it for a few decades now.
The Mexican people's window of opportunity has long come and gone and they are now living their unraveling destiny. This will be a preview to the Main Event.
Joined: Jun 29, 2008 Posts: 82 Location: San Luis Obispo, CA / San Jose, CA
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 3:08 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
burtonridr wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
Whatever - I'm a doomer because I get it, and I don't look for the little glittery sequins sparkling from the steaming turd load the dog dropped in the front room carpet because he ate a kid's doll earlier that day - I leave that job to you.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:22 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Revi wrote:
cualcrees wrote:
Holy crap!! I live in Mexico and I can tell you that most - if not all - people are completely clueless about PO; even more so, they don't want to know.
To them is most an issue of "privatization vs. state ownership"; not about oil depletion.
I've tried talking to some people about it but I only get blank stares or the usual "someone, somehow, will come up with a solution someday".
This is really scary stuff.
Bienvenidos al Club de Peak Oil. He tenido la misma experiencia, hablando con la gente aqui. No sabe, ni quiere saber.
Estamos en una situacion muy mala.
Creo que la unica solucion es la communidad.
Nosotros tenemos mas dinero, pero ustedes en Mexico tienen mas communidad.
Va a ser muy interesante.
que? _________________ Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5496 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
[quote="cualcrees"]
ROCKMAN wrote:
cualcrees,
I'll second Dante's statement. I've spent in Mexico...did field work there as a young geologist a lifetime ago. I've always felt the Mexican people could really develop their society if they could take control from the elite power structure. But knowledge is power and the state did a great job of keeping them in the dark for generations. It will very sickening to watch their realization that they have been truly abandoned by those who pretended to be their protectors.
Yeah, the general feeling here in Mexico, is that all of our politicians are crooks who are only in it for the money; we've been robed blind for generations and, truth be told, I don't see it stopping anytime soon... (I guess it's like that everywhere, right!? ) God knows what's gonna happen once the people in Mexico realize the truth about our "precious" oil and its demise.
I am not an expert on NAFTA, but if I understand this correctly then the US, Mexico, and Canada must sell oil, oil products, and natural gas to each other at market prices.
Also in regards to ROCKMAN's statement, NAFTA also provided for production/profit sharing in the part of the Gulf of Mexico known as the 'doughnut' (for some reason unknown to me). Therefore US companies could possibly (is?) develop oil resources that may be shared with Mexico. However I don't think this area have especially large oil reserves. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5496 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:28 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
misterno wrote:
Mexico is big time farked
Now, I need to decide when to short Mexican Bolsa Index. This crap will eventually hit their stock market. But how and when is the question...
It may go up in peso terms due to they have a history of restorting to inflationary policies in a crisis.
In dollar terms, it may just keep on dropping starting about next year - or possibly even sooner. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:34 am Post subject: Output plummets at huge Mexican oilfield
Quote:
Production at Mexico’s Cantarell oil complex, one of the world’s largest, has plummeted by a third in the past year, an indication the country could lose self-sufficiency in oil in the medium term.
Average daily production dropped to slightly more than 1m barrels a day in May compared with more than 1.6m b/d in the same month last year, according to the energy ministry.
Mexico’s total oil production fell about 10 per cent in the past 12 months to 2.79m b/d in May. That was only marginally above April’s output, which was the lowest in a decade.
“This is not a good sign,” said George Baker, head of energia.com, a Houston-based consultancy. “But it does at least strengthen the government’s position that there is an approaching crisis in oil production.”
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:29 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Oh man. I remember the days when Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% a year. Remember those days, guys?
Then it was 15%...Then 17%...Then 20%. Then 25% and now 34%! This seriously can't get any higher, can it? At some point it's gotta stabilize (say 40%?) and then come back down as the field is producing squat. Seems like there's always a tail end, especially at these prices.
I remember doing the calculations a few years ago and found that oil exports account for 10% of the Mexican economy! (This number is a little different now with higher prices and lower exports, though.) When they were "rolling" in oil dough, they were still exporting a million of their citizens to the US. What's that number going to get to when their exports become imports? _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2954 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:39 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
DantesPeak wrote:
I am not an expert on NAFTA, but if I understand this correctly then the US, Mexico, and Canada must sell oil, oil products, and natural gas to each other at market prices.
It seems heretofore, since production in Mexico has been wholly nationalized and certain exemptions were negotiated regarding Mexico's energy export obligations in NAFTA, they've avoided the pitfall Canada is in, where 60-65% of Canadian energy output must be directed south, even in the face of domestic shortages. This would also apply the moment Mexico begins to allow foreign energy companies into the country, they could sue the Mexican government in international court for failure to follow NAFTA regulations. Whether this is part of the furor over allowing them to do so at the moment, I'm not sure. Who knows what kind of arrangements would be in the offing with the SPP. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1741 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:51 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Quote:
Oh man. I remember the days when Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% a year. Remember those days, guys?
Then it was 15%...Then 17%...Then 20%. Then 25% and now 34%! This seriously can't get any higher, can it? At some point it's gotta stabilize (say 40%?) and then come back down as the field is producing squat. Seems like there's always a tail end, especially at these prices.
I think it was only 6-8 months ago I heard an interview with Matt Simmons. He had been talking to the heads of Cantarell and they were discussing what to do if depletion rate goes to 15-18%. Simmons had responded something like, what do you do if it goes to 20 or 25%?
Who would have thought Simmons was an optimist? _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 5:42 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Dante,
I haven't see anything about a doughnut but I'll run some traps at lunch. Last story I saw on the western OCS in the Gulf concerned the nomination of new blocks right along the Mexico boundary. That same story reaffirmed the rights as outlined in long ago treaties allowing operators on either side to utilize "right of capture" laws (i.e. no sharing required). But perhaps NAFTA modified those original treaties.
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) God knows what's gonna happen once the people in Mexico realize the truth about our "precious" oil and its demise.
Then stop driving to work, duh..... 
