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| What will be the best performing asset-class in 2008? |
| crude oil? |
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10% |
[ 8 ] |
| natural gas? |
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5% |
[ 4 ] |
| metals? |
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5% |
[ 4 ] |
| precious metals? |
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28% |
[ 21 ] |
| agricultural commodities? |
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40% |
[ 30 ] |
| emerging market equity? |
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1% |
[ 1 ] |
| bonds? |
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1% |
[ 1 ] |
| other (please specify)? |
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8% |
[ 6 ] |
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| Total Votes : 75 |
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| Author |
Message |
cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3573
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 Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:35 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| "I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon." - Baron Rothschild |
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MrBill
Expert
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
Posts: 5394
Location: Eurasia
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:39 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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I have on occasion bought bottoms and cum too soon! ; - )
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The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense. |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3573
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 1:34 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| MrBill wrote: | | I have on occasion bought bottoms and cum too soon! ; - ) |
You can't call yourself a trader unless you violate your rules sometimes, if not then what is the difference between a machine and a human?
Having said that I prefer to momentum trade but I do sometimes try to "pick the bottom".
however.....
I would only do that for commodities that are in a bull market. For example I might try to pick the bottom of gold, corn, or oil now when it corrects but I would NOT try to do that for the Dow Jones or the real estate market now.
Someone once asked my opinion about the California real estate market. I said, "stay the hell away from it." Don't listen to all those "experts" on TV saying right now is a good time to buy just because you get a 20% discount.
//
I've noticed my trading style has changed drastically.
In the beginning I was a mad freak who would jump in and out and try to capture every up/down gyration of the market. The brokers working on commission must of loved me!
Now I hold onto my positions for much longer.
I'm spending maybe 25% as much on commission fees. ha ha
I think trading makes a person grow old very quickly.  |
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MrBill
Expert
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
Posts: 5394
Location: Eurasia
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:20 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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The older I get the worse I am at day trading. Information overload. I once knew a Chief Dealer at a major bank where I worked on the FX desk. I traded every currency spot and forward. Calculating all the spreads by hand. I once quoted 500 prices and did 120 deals in one day. But he made more money than me. All he cared about was spot USD/DEM. He could not have cared less about anything else. Did that make him a better trader? Yes.
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MrBill
Expert
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
Posts: 5394
Location: Eurasia
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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I am really tired. This market is so volatile. Its making a monkey out of us. Yesterday's relief rally, and some follow through today, has taken some of the pressure off forced margin calls. Likely due to some news about Freddie and Fannie being not only too big to fail, but also politicians hinting at a possible bailout. As well as crude being back up again on a weaker US dollar. However, as a precaution we have been deleveraging by closing open positions. Never the less we are about 18% down from highs in May, 5% since the end of June. Tough sledding at the moment. So have a great weekend and speak to you next week. Cheers.
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BigTex
Moderator
Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Posts: 4294
Location: Graceland
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| MrBill wrote: | | I am really tired. This market is so volatile. |
PRPFX will help you sleep. 
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drew
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 22, 2004
Posts: 869
Location: canada
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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Only if one owns it, I expect........
Drew |
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BigTex
Moderator
Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Posts: 4294
Location: Graceland
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| drew wrote: | Only if one owns it, I expect........
Drew |
True.
You would have to own it to get the benefits.
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drew
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 22, 2004
Posts: 869
Location: canada
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:38 pm Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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Was that really your car?
omfg...... |
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BigTex
Moderator
Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Posts: 4294
Location: Graceland
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| drew wrote: | Was that really your car?
omfg...... |
The new one or the old one?
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drew
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 22, 2004
Posts: 869
Location: canada
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| The Caddy of course! |
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BigTex
Moderator
Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Posts: 4294
Location: Graceland
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:19 pm Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| drew wrote: | | The Caddy of course! |
No, but don't tell anyone.
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3573
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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| MrBill wrote: | ...
For my part I believe that crude oil prices have already peaked and will end substantially lower by year-end. $99.25 to be exact.
... |
I'm a firm believer in PO and also the great die-off!
However I also believe the market trends (up and also down), so I think you're right MrBill ---> we're going to see $100 oil before $200.
It's my suspicious observation that the market tends to go down just right before an "un-stoppable force" appears out of nowhere pushing it up. Recall crude oil in 2005 this "un-stoppable force" was:
1) two hurricanes
2) War in the middle east with Israel vs. Lebannon
3) potential war with Iran
Many had "bet the farm" that oil was going to hit $100. They're not around anymore.
I think the people today making the $200 oil bet will end up like the same folks from 3 years past. (losing their shirts)
So what is the "un-stoppable force" today that is *supposedly* making it impossible for oil to drop.
*geez let me guess?*
How many times is mainstream media blaming speculators for making oil go up?  |
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MrBill
Expert
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
Posts: 5394
Location: Eurasia
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| Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:59 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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Too true, but crude put in an impressive top and had a violent correction only to reverse and in two-days put in a new top on the back of a weak US dollar that has gold prices rallying again as well.
This was, of course, on the implosion of Freddie, Fannie and IndyMac. The bailout over the weekend by the Treasury just shows that the optimists that predicted that the worst of the financial crisis was behind us were over were wide of the mark. Asia started a little higher this morning, but then their banking stocks got clobbered again. Europe is broadly lower.
| Quote: | The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve on Sunday unveiled sweeping steps to support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if needed to bolster confidence in the troubled mortgage financing giants and head off a potential meltdown in global financial markets.
In moves that could mean a major escalation in U.S. taxpayer exposure, the Fed said the companies could access its discount window for emergency cash. The Treasury separately said that it would temporarily increase its line of credit to the two, as well as purchase equity in them, if needed.
The move by the Fed echoed its emergency action to help rescue investment bank Bear Stearns in March, when it opened the discount window to investment banks for the first time since the Great Depression. |
source: Treasury, Fed take bold steps to back Freddie and Fannie
Markets continue to be brutal. Very high volatility, but grinding relentlessly lower. This is good and bad as we have been positioned for lower markets all year, but still it affects our large, core, strategic position that is marked to market creating losses as well as triggering margin calls as the value of outstanding collateral shrinks in value.
That means a long, hot summer for me. No travel plans even if I wanted. No real reason to leave Cyprus during the summer, so will not plan to travel until possibly November. But I agree whole heartedly with your underlying sentiment of avoiding betting the farm on a one way move. Extremely high volatility points out that sentiment can change very quickly. I think there are too many players all lined-up on the same side of the market. That sets us up for a correction lower. That may not reverse the long-standing trends that have been in place since 2002, but it could still wipe out some weak longs.
UPDATE: continued turmoil in financial instruments favors physical commodities for now
| Quote: | Commodity Watch
Commodity risk still skewed to the upside as fundamentals tighten
We are modestly raising our returns forecast for the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index to 9.3%.
Commodities have strongly outperformed other financial assets
Commodity returns as measured by the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index increased by 9.3% in June and have remained flat thus far in July, substantially outperforming other US assets. It is interesting to note that this outperformance has actually led to net selling by index investors rather than buying as these investors are forced to rebalance to their benchmark.
Commodity fundamentals have continued to strengthen
As weakness in standard assets has largely resulted from ever-more concerns over implications of the continued credit turmoil, rising inflation and the weakening US consumer on financial institutions and the broader economy, it is reasonable to question the sustainability of commodity returns. However, at the same time fundamentals in the financial markets have appeared to deteriorate, commodity fundamentals have continued to strengthen, owing largely to supply-side factors in the context of still-robust emerging market demand growth. In most cases, we believe that this has generated further upside price risk in the near-to-medium-term rather than downside risk.
We are modestly raising our returns forecast
We are modestly raising our forecast for the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index to 9.3% from 9.0%, reflecting the upward revision in our industrial metals returns forecast and a modest upward revision in our livestock returns forecast. |
source:Goldman Sachs Commodities Research
July 11, 2008
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The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense. |
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ROCKMAN
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 797
Location: TEXAS
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| Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:13 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008 |
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Mr. Bill,
Would you like to through out a time lag for the oil price spike to truly effect the grass roots. I don't follow the details as you do but from faded memories it seems like a minimum 6 months and more likely 12+ months. I'm sure you saw the posts regarding OPEC income for the 1st 1/2 2008 almost equal their entire 2007 income. My guess is we're just starting to see the effect of tail end 2007 inflation forces...especially in the motor fuel related ares. |
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