Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1985 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
OECD demand has been dropping since October but world demand is still below production, on the figures in the STEO. Overall, this latest IPM shows world consumption as 85.354 mbpd and world production as 84.594 mbpd, in 2007. If these estimates are accurate, world inventories must have dropped by 278 million barrels in 2007.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
joewp wrote:
The May IPM is out, and January's record has been revised down slightly, and February is now the new record at 74.657 million barrels a day. It still looks like a plateau to me. The impressive rise over the last few months appears to be moderating a bit.
Is this the last gasp over before depletion sets in? This latest bull run started in the first week of February. Perhaps there's less oil being pumped since then? Only time will tell.
Your figures incl the non-conventionals: polar, deep sea & heavy oils. Without polar & deep sea components, Regular Conventional Oil had a Peak in 2005 of 69-mbd and slipped last year to 63-mbd. With a record magnitude of MegaProjects under way, RCO is back up to 64-mbd and on its way to a sub-peak of 67-mbd in 2011 and terminal decline.
IEA presently calculates that the Underlying Decline Rate in mature conventional oil fields has been a stable 7.7% thru the decade. It is almost impossible for MegaProjects to surpass this obstacle. The 2005 Record Peak of conventional oil appears safe.
OTOH, All Liquids is facing only a 3.3% UDR (IEA says 3.75%) and is poised to continue setting annual records 'til 2013. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:59 am Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
It's that time of the month again and the EIA is out with new data, this time covering through March of this year. The rise in production that managed to set a new record (barely) seems to be over for now. The plateau trend seems to be holding. January's total has been revised down by 126,000b/d and February's was revised down by 29,000b/d.
January's revision downward is on top of last month's downward revision of January's total. January went from 74,466,000b/d to 74,431,000b/d to 74,305,000b/d. Is that depletion in action or what?
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
It looks like February's new monthly peak is going to hold for a while.
March was lower and now April is lower than March.
Of course due to revisions, February might not hold onto the title of new peak month. When first released, the number for February was 74,657(thousands of barrels per day). The next month it was revised to 74,628 and this month it's now 74,593. The May, 2005 number is sitting there at 74,298, just waiting for February, 2008 to get revised down again!
The picture behind the graph is a local "convenience store" that was built last year without a tenant lined up. It still hasn't got a tenant and more stores are going empty here in exurbia. I expect that trend to continue. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 480 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 12:09 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
Gawddammit!!!
This is bullshit! I trusted you guys to know wtf you're talking about and I bought into it!
NOW THERE'S A NEW farking PEAK?????? WTF?
Do any of you know what you're talking about? I was just defending PO furiously yesterday that the peak was in May 2005 and now you're saying I made a complete fool of myself?
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 480 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:43 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
TonyPrep wrote:
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
NOW THERE'S A NEW farking PEAK??????
No new peak, but a downward revision of the previous peak (Feb 2008).
No. The freakin' previous peak and permanent peak was supposed to have been in May 2005! That's what all of you have been claiming all these months. That's the information I gleaned from this website (and others) that you guys were peddling long before I got here and people, including me, buy into this information and then...
POW! All shot to hell by another peak. Who's to say there won't be yet another and yet another and yet another? You people who are supposed to know so much about this stuff?
Then, I go around shootin' my freakin' mouth off information I learned here and there and now I look like a damned fool.
Who among you can explain to me why I shouldn't denounce this whole concept and this site as nothing more than a way to sell freeze-dried foods? Any takers who are going to be reaonable and not snarky about me being upset at these develoipments?
Every last thing we say and have said regarding peak oil production is now discredited. _________________ My new Peak Oil T-Shirt Design
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:04 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
\
Every last thing we say and have said regarding peak oil production is now discredited.
I'm sincerely hoping you're kidding, but in case you're not, here's the same chart with a 12 month moving average, which you'll see retains a peak around March or April of 2006.
The bump up in February of this year could well be the "last gasp" of the producers to get as much profit out of $100 oil as possible. Since then, the price has risen and production has declined. Not what you'd expect from producers in a market economy, now is it?
And anyway, being on a "bumpy plateau" like we are is almost as bad as peaking. Once the decline starts (which it must) the situation will become much worse... _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: May 23, 2004 Posts: 201 Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:39 am Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
According to Khebab's megaproject chart over at TOD, we may pick up a few hundred thousand in production this year, especially if demand growth stays around 1%.
When I talk to people about PO I just tell them we are bouncing along the top of the curve for a couple of more years. Supply will remain tight and prices will be volatile. Trying to predict an exact peak with the lousy data we have at present can't be justified.
It doesn't much matter anyway. The people I talk to -- except for one guy -- don't believe anything I say about PO.
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 338 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:56 am Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
TonyPrep wrote:
OECD demand has been dropping since October but world demand is still below production, on the figures in the STEO. Overall, this latest IPM shows world consumption as 85.354 mbpd and world production as 84.594 mbpd, in 2007. If these estimates are accurate, world inventories must have dropped by 278 million barrels in 2007.
Shouldn't that be "World demand is still ABOVE production"?
Last edited by skeptik on Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:21 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 338 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:04 am Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
Gawddammit!!!
This is bullshit! I trusted you guys to know wtf you're talking about and I bought into it!
NOW THERE'S A NEW farking PEAK?????? WTF?
There's no point in getting hung up on the minutiae of the figures. Think of the error bars. IEA and EIA figures never come out exactly the same. These are estimates of a hugely complex global system where reporting standards are not consistent from country to country. Neither does the data come in at a consistent rate, so the figures are subject to backwards revision as guestimates incorporated in the total get replaced by real data.
A million or so BPD either way is no odds. It's still effectively a plateau of production. In the broader scheme of things the PRECISE date of peak, which we will only be able to point at confidently with a good deal of hindsight, isnt all that important.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 4:07 am Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
Quote:
Who among you can explain to me why I shouldn't denounce this whole concept and this site as nothing more than a way to sell freeze-dried foods? Any takers who are going to be reaonable and not snarky about me being upset at these develoipments?
You should. You should pick up your toys and go home, because you obviously don't get it.
Quote:
Colin Campbell: "A debate rages over the precise date of peak, but rather misses the point, when what matters — and matters greatly — is the vision of the long remorseless decline that comes into sight on the other side of it. "
_________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
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