Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:33 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Ludi wrote:
It may be a system which doesn't work in groups over about 150 individuals, which means it may simply not work in civilized cultures. These large groups of people seem to inevitably form hierarchies, and there goes your "communal" living....
Here's a very interesting article as to why groups of that size inevitably form hierarchies: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number _________________ Mom's comin' round to put it back the way it oughta be...
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 295 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 4:03 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
KevO wrote:
How far behind and how similar is the UK fall to that of the US?
are they comparable?
a year or so back up the downcurve.
No, it's going to be worse in the UK.
Housing prices are more out whack from affordable historical norms than in the US. The UK is more dependent on its financial services sector, now in a tailspin, than the US. UK has gone rapidly from a major oil exporter to an importer - output went into a steep decline in 1999. UK natural gas supply is perilous as it's at the end of the pipeline from Russia and has very little storage capacity, because until recently it was an exporter and storage capacity was thought to be an unnecessary expense. Also much more dependent on the spot market for gas rather than long term contract. UK thus cannot store cheap summer gas and gets screwed in the winter.
...plus the uk banks and other financial institutions are holding an indeterminate and largely hidden amount of non-performing mortgage crapola, both locally produced and from the USA.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:02 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
It speaks volumes about how bad the financial situation is to see a thread such as this remain basically on topic and focused like a laser for over three years. You think that we may be on to something?
My mother-in-law died ten days ago. My wife stands to inherit, along with her sister, the family home in the San Fernando Valley. It is paid for long since. So it is a sitting depreciating asset which needs to be sold in order to realize any gain from the estate. I was naturally given the task of evaluating the worth of said property and try to negotiate around reassessments, trust issues and appraisals.
My first shock was when I began to look at surrounding property to try to get a sense of the values, prior sales, pending sales and relative worth. What had for so long been an abstract idea to me suddenly sprang into sickening clarity. We are in trouble people. As I scrolled down through page after appalling page of REO foreclosures my jaw dropped further and further. I needed no statistics to show me the story. It is like looking at a battlefield after the battle is over. It is most definitely is over. To me, the final accounting telling us that real estate sales in southern California are down over 40% year on year or that some 65% of the existing sales are foreclosure sales merely kick the corpse.
The other side of the coin was just as interesting. One half of the estate is contained in a Merrill Lynch account which had been her parents income over the years. My wife had figured that they had around $300,000 in the account. I assured her that no I didn't think so since the sub-prime and credit crunches would have certainly eroded this account down significantly. As it turns out the balance in the account is $305,000! Puzzled by this, I checked to see if I could determine why. There it was in black and white. For some quirky reason my father-in-law some thirty years ago had become enamored with, you guessed it, Energy Companies! He even has some stock certificates from some start-ups which held no value for 40 years but which sprang to life as if by magic in the last few years. That poor deluded old man guessed right. _________________ "I've been dazed and confused for so long it's not true."
Led Zeppelin
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3266 Location: One more question...
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:07 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
buzzard wrote:
...That poor deluded old man guessed right.
What causes you to believe that he was deluded or that he guessed? _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:13 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
[Slightly off-topic but:]
Thank you to all the regular posters here. There has been lots of good information long before it hits the main news that I read. Keep up the good work _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5401 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:32 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Snowrunner wrote:
The interesting question is: Where is all the money coming form that gets injected into these corpses to give them the appearance of still breathing?
Clearly, the Fed's printing presses are glowing red right now, but in not a small part the Chinese and Asians are involved (and Europeans probably too). One has to wonder how long they are willing to do this.
I'm not going to look up my posts now, but I mentioned here as early as 2005 that various Treasury Secretaries and the President promised Asian countries, including China, that Fannie & Freddie debt would be paid back in full.
They did this because technically F & F debt is not government guaranteed and therefore should be set at a higher interest rate. But if Asian countries bought the debt, they would accept a lower interest rate than the market in general. It was realized by the PTB as early as back then that if F & F had to pay market interest rates, they would fail because they couldn't make money handing out risky mortgages for small profit margins.
At this point, with Asian countries already heavily invested. there is no one left to bail out F & F besides the Treasury and Fed - so money creation is the only option. Right now, foreign central banks and funds hold $1 trillion of agency debt. The powers are not going to let F & F fail, or else the American people will be sending their mortgage payments to China. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
MD wrote:
buzzard wrote:
...That poor deluded old man guessed right.
What causes you to believe that he was deluded or that he guessed?
That statement was tongue in cheek as that is the way that I'm sure most would have seen him at the time. The other thing is that I never liked the old bastard who was deluded on so many other issues. _________________ "I've been dazed and confused for so long it's not true."
Led Zeppelin
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
It can, but in different fashion.
So banks are perhaps safe because they were not investing in western mortgage market, perhaps because they didn't know how or their internal inertia prevented them from doing so or German banks "outcompeted" them in seizing up valuable American mortgage papers.
It's not that these debts were really declared as what they are. The banks / mortgage companies have had gone to great lengths to really hide what was in these packages, a lot of times it seems they have outright lied.
Maybe you're right and there is nothing in hidden in the banks books, but it would really surprise me if that's the case, it seems these rotten packages have made it to all corners of the planet.
Quote:
On the other hand some exporters here are beginning to suffer.
One of my good friends have closed down his company because of debt defaults of his American customers.
Nevertheless it was not bankruptcy, just shutting down business which was no longer viable.
But it is still a business lost / jobs lost. If he closed it down before he was insolvent or if he pulled the plug earlier is of secondary importance really, there won't be another company sprining up to fill that gap.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:29 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak wrote:
At this point, with Asian countries already heavily invested. there is no one left to bail out F & F besides the Treasury and Fed - so money creation is the only option. Right now, foreign central banks and funds hold $1 trillion of agency debt. The powers are not going to let F & F fail, or else the American people will be sending their mortgage payments to China.
I don't seem them pull the rabbit ouit of the hat though.
If they print more Money the Dollar's going to go down further which in turn will have the price of raw materials and energy go up through the roof. At one point or the other the markets will just say: "Screw the US Pesos, let's trade in a different currency" and abandon the USD in which case the US is really on the sideline with no easy way to get the raw materials / energy it needs to cointinue to function, much less build a local economy.
Likewise, and I admit that didn't occur to me until very recently, the Chinese etc. did support the US binge by printing lots of their own money too, at one point or the other they will (have to?) stop doing this as well, otherwise they screw themselves even more.
I can't see anybody walk away from this without any serious injury.....
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5401 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:33 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Snowrunner wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
At this point, with Asian countries already heavily invested. there is no one left to bail out F & F besides the Treasury and Fed - so money creation is the only option. Right now, foreign central banks and funds hold $1 trillion of agency debt. The powers are not going to let F & F fail, or else the American people will be sending their mortgage payments to China.
I don't seem them pull the rabbit ouit of the hat though.
If they print more Money the Dollar's going to go down further which in turn will have the price of raw materials and energy go up through the roof. At one point or the other the markets will just say: "Screw the US Pesos, let's trade in a different currency" and abandon the USD in which case the US is really on the sideline with no easy way to get the raw materials / energy it needs to cointinue to function, much less build a local economy.
Likewise, and I admit that didn't occur to me until very recently, the Chinese etc. did support the US binge by printing lots of their own money too, at one point or the other they will (have to?) stop doing this as well, otherwise they screw themselves even more.
I can't see anybody walk away from this without any serious injury.....
Well yes, the dollar is eventually toast, but before that meal is served cold our government will be trying to come up with one plan after the other - most likely making the eventual outcome even worse. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4262 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:39 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak wrote:
Snowrunner wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
I can't see anybody walk away from this without any serious injury.....
Well yes, the dollar is eventually toast, but before that meal is served cold our government will be trying to come up with one plan after the other - most likely making the eventual outcome even worse.
Enter stage right:
The Amero _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me
Last edited by roccman on Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:41 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:39 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak wrote:
Well yes, the dollar is eventually toast, but before that meal is served cold our government will be trying to come up with one plan after the other - most likely making the eventual outcome even worse.
So what do you expect the time frame on this to be? I had expected to start seeing what we've seen in the spring next year, we seem to be a year ahead of it and it seems to accelerate.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5401 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Snowrunner wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
Well yes, the dollar is eventually toast, but before that meal is served cold our government will be trying to come up with one plan after the other - most likely making the eventual outcome even worse.
So what do you expect the time frame on this to be? I had expected to start seeing what we've seen in the spring next year, we seem to be a year ahead of it and it seems to accelerate.
DantesPeak wrote:
Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145
The pending collpase of mortgage giants, Fannie & Freddie, marks the beginning of the next wave of dollar debasement.
The first one started last November with a major change in Federal Reserve policies. The second one probably starts today as the government assumes trillions $s in mortgages, plus many trillions $ more in derivatives.
Due to these monetary/fiscal policies, eventually we will look back and see $145 as just a short stop on the way to a much higher price.
The newest major wave of inflation started on Friday. It's hard to exactly say what will happen, but I expect the consequences to show up rather soon.
Those being higher commodity prices, higher long term rates, but maybe short term Treasury bill rates going to down to near zero for a while.
The economy will be hit rather hard if for nothing else than the uncertainty this newest crisis creates. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Homeowners struggling to meet their mortgage payments would be able to sell their homes to the local authority and rent them back as tenants under radical proposals being considered by the government to prevent the misery of repossession.
Emergency measures to allow families to keep a roof over their heads are being drawn up as the scale of repossessions proceedings becomes increasingly apparent. In Newcastle upon Tyne alone, the newly nationalised Northern Rock is monopolising at least one day a week in the county court to pursue defaulting borrowers.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:19 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Quote:
But yes, we probably do become like weimar germany - except you won't need those bulky wheelbarrels, just a bank account.
I'm not so sure about that! Our next Y2K may come from software crashes because the program variables aren't large enough to handle transactions and balances when a loaf of bread costs 100 million dollars.
Of course, we could assume all figures to be "billions of dollars" (we'd actually get the "multiplier of the week" to know how many zeros we need to add to prices) and the software would be fine.
And at $1 = $1 billion, a 100 million dollar loaf of bread would show up as $.10, (ten cents), just like the old days!
Concerning China, I have a gut feeling that the Olympics marks their emergence onto the world stage as a public power player, which will include working to be the Asian and evnetualy the world reserve currency. This includes no more subsidy of USA debt such as buying T-bills, etc. They will move to acquisition phase, and as US assets fully collapse in price, they will buy (using dollars they have and get for pennies from other countries) companies and assets that they find useful, heavy on patents, companies with industrial secrets and high technology capabilities they might not have. It will be a blood bath. And some nice summer houses and vacation property.
But what they pay will be far, far lower than what anything will sell for now. We will be begging them to buy. None of this "shoucl China be allowed to own a sensitive USA company, the Hearst Castle", etc.
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These large groups of people seem to inevitably form hierarchies, and there goes your "communal" living....
