Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
I would add a follow up question.
Why, then, increased prices and decreasing stocks?
1. The low dollar. Agricultural commodities, like oil, are priced in dollars. A lower dollar means the farmer needs to get paid more dollars to get the same value for a fixed amount of agricultural product.
2. In the case of wheat, the reduced stocks are, in large part, a result of several dry years in Australia. This, frankly, is one reason why I'm paying extra attention to the weather in Australia in this thread.
3. In the case of corn, increased use from ethanol has no doubt led to a drawing-down of stocks, even though production the past few years in the US (at least until this year), has gone up significantly.
4. #2 and #3 have also no doubt contributed to the increased price of the two grains, but they aren't the only factor (see #1).
5. I don't have any stats, but I have a sneaking suspicion the high costs of the grains are discouraging excess storage. When something gets expensive, it isn't worth it to let it sit around unused, so the "agricultural-industrial complex" is probably taking a "lean inventory" approach as much as they can. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2662 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
lean storage started when prices were depressed. Why pay for storage (adding to your cost) when prices are so low (it is so cheap to buy if you want it later) and the margin on storage was high in relation to the price you could get from the product.
In other words the idea was to sell it before you loose any more money than you have already lost. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
JAJJAL VILLAGE, INDIA—Four decades after the so-called Green Revolution enabled this vast nation to feed itself, some farmers are turning their backs on modern agricultural methods—the use of modified seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides—in favor of organic farming.
This is not a matter of producing gourmet food for environmentally attuned consumers but rather something of a life-and-death choice in villages like this one, where the benefits of the Green Revolution have been coupled with unanticipated harmful consequences from chemical pollution.
As driving their actions, the new organic farmers cite the rising costs of seed, fertilizer, and pesticides, and concerns that decades of chemical use is ruining the soil. But many are also revolting against what they see as the environmental degradation that has come with the new farming techniques, particularly the serious pollution of drinking water that village residents blame for causing cancer and other diseases.
"People are fed up with chemical farming," says Amarjit Sharma, a farmer for 30 years who began organic farming four years ago. "The earth is now addicted to the use of these chemicals."
For now, their numbers are small, perhaps 5 percent of farmers around the agricultural region in the Punjab state, known for its cotton production. But this is a trend that could become important if their numbers grow and cut into India's agricultural productivity in an era of tightening global food supplies.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2662 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:12 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OilFinder2 wrote:
The wheat belt of southeastern Australia has been getting some really good rains for the past day or so, plus the forecast for the next several days calls for more. Should be a big help for the wheat crop there.
The drought in Australia's main food bowl, the Murray-Darling Basin, has worsened, with record low inflows into the river system in June and an even gloomier situation predicted for the coming months.
Neil Plummer, acting head of the National Climate Centre, described rainfall during the southern hemisphere autumn as "an absolute shocker", and said: "I'm gasping for good news". Wendy Craik, chief executive of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission, said the river system's condition was "critical ... tending towards flatlining". She added: "We have got it on life support.
"The basin, which straddles four states and is the size of France and Germany combined, produces 41 per cent of Australia's fruit, vegetables and grain. Agricultural products worth more than £10bn (NZ$20bn) are exported from the region annually to Asia and the Middle East.
But flows of water last month into the two mighty rivers that irrigate the basin were the lowest since records began 117 years ago, equating to only 16 per cent of the June average. During February to June, the levels were only marginally higher than last year, which was the driest autumn on record.
Quote:
The state of the Murray-Darling is of great concern to two groups: farmers and environmentalists. The former depend on it to irrigate crops such as rice, grapes and horticulture. The latter point to scientific reports saying the river system's unique ecology could be irreversibly damaged by October without heavy rain.
Salvation seems unlikely. Dr Craik said yesterday that hopes of drought-breaking winter rains had faded, and low inflows were expected for the rest of the year. Temperatures are forecast to be above average for the next three months, which means rain is more likely to soak into the sun-baked earth or evaporate than flow into the rivers.
Mr Plummer said good rains early in the year had barely dented the drought, and long-term trends pointed to six to seven years of below average rain in each decade. Of recent months, he said: "Autumn can only be described as an absolute shocker in terms of climate conditions for the basin.
Hunger lined up, quiet and orderly, in the summer heat of a Delaware County day.
Suburban women, many looking a decade older than their ages, awaited their turn to collect strawberries, bananas and bread being distributed by Philabundance, the hunger-relief agency, at a Delaware County Housing Authority building in Woodlyn.
Several of them, including Marisa Koerbel of Lower Merion, were there to plug the summer feeding gap - to find food for their children, who usually get free or reduced-price breakfasts and lunches in schools now closed for summer.
Hunger isn't just an empty plate on a Philly table.
It touches the suburbs, too. And the number of poor and working-poor families scrambling to find food outside Philadelphia is growing.
The 'free school lunch gap' that happens in the summer and on school breaks has been going on for years, but this is the first time I've seen it mentioned in a news article.
Quote:
In one district school, Rush Elementary, 56 percent of fifth graders are eligible for subsidized lunches, according to state figures.
This is sounding more like the Depression every day. _________________ What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:37 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
roccman wrote:
off Kiplinger's agricultural report...
Quote:
June and July will be exceptionally critical for U.S. corn.
If the growing weather is poor, the U.S. will run out of corn
before the 2009 crop arrives...unfathomable for the world’s top grower
of corn. Persistent spring rain severely delayed corn planting from Mo.
Corn Falls to 1-Month Low on U.S. Stockpiles Forecast, Weather
By Jae Hur
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Corn tumbled to a one-month low after a government report showed an increase in U.S. inventories before the 2009 harvest and on speculation ideal crop weather will help the U.S. crop recover from the worst Midwest flooding in 15 years.
About 833 million bushels of unsold corn will be on hand before next year's harvest, up from 673 million forecast a month ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said July 11. The surplus for the year ending Aug. 31 will be 1.598 billion bushels, up 12 percent from last month's estimate as ethanol-plant construction delays and falling demand for animal feed lifts this year's corn supply, the government said.
``The USDA report last Friday was the main catalyst for the movement in today's trade,'' said John Reeve, associate director for agricultural commodities at UBS AG in Singapore. ``The numbers were certainly very bearish for corn.''
Corn for December delivery lost as much as 24.75 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $6.845 a bushel, the lowest since June 11, in after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and stood at $6.86 as of 12:17 p.m. Singapore time.
The price declined 8.7 percent last week, the biggest such drop since March. Most-active futures still have almost doubled in the past year, reaching a record $7.9925 on June 27.
Global inventories will total 105.3 million tons, up 2 percent from 103.3 million tons predicted a month ago, and down from the 124.6 million expected this year, the USDA said July 11.
The corn market was also under pressure from forecasts for favorable crop weather this week that could help develop plants in the U.S. Midwest, said Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at Tokyo- based broker Okachi & Co.
[...]
EDIT: Note a bit of demand destruction in that article too. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Last edited by OilFinder2 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:42 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Also from that Bloomberg article:
Quote:
Wheat Falls
Wheat for September delivery declined as much as 1.5 percent to $8.18 a bushel and traded at $8.2075 as of 11:53 a.m. Singapore time. Prices have slumped 39 percent from a record $13.495 set on Feb. 27 as higher prices spurred farmers to boost planting.
The USDA predicted the U.S. winter-wheat crop will total 1.864 billion bushels after ample rain and warm temperatures in May and June helped plants in the southern Great Plains from Texas to Kansas. The harvest, which the USDA said was 52 percent complete as of July 6, has been helped by dry weather.
U.S. inventories of all varieties, before next year's harvest, are forecast to rise 75 percent to 537 million bushels, compared with 306 million this year. Last month, the government forecast reserves would rise to 487 million bushels.
This thread is so much fun. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2662 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:57 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OilFinder2 wrote:
This thread is so much fun.
Yes human suffering is so much fun.
Big of you to enjoy it.
Before you revile in those harvest reports maybe you should freaking ask if it is going into poor people's mouths or rich people's gas tanks. In case you didn't notice it this is a food thread and over the last few decades corn has started going into more products than your frosted flakes.
OF2 asks, food crisis? What food crisis?
Don't worry kid, abundance is just around the corner!
As PO advances expect more of these reality adverse entities to climb out of the woodwork. They would rather revel in voyages of fantasy imagery than face the enviable consequences of their own behavior. They have brought the meaning of cowardice to its ultimate plateau.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6283 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
People like OF2, Essex, JD, and so many others on these forums have caused a new term to find its way into the language: "Denialist". They like things the way they are, they can't accept the reality of change for the worse, and they refuse to admit even the slightest complicity in what is going down, so they work very hard to deny it. Think how much time OF2 must spend finding his tidbits of glad tidings!
Denial is an effective defense mechanism. Hard cases keep it up right into their graves, in spite of overwhelming evidence that they are wrong. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 124 Location: In the cab of a truck! Anywhere USA!
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:19 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Zardoz wrote:
People like OF2, Essex, JD, and so many others on these forums have caused a new term to find its way into the language: "Denialist". They like things the way they are, they can't accept the reality of change for the worse, and they refuse to admit even the slightest complicity in what is going down, so they work very hard to deny it. Think how much time OF2 must spend finding his tidbits of glad tidings!
Denial is an effective defense mechanism. Hard cases keep it up right into their graves, in spite of overwhelming evidence that they are wrong.
I don't believe I am in either the doomer or the denial camps... BUT I have to comment that I do remember why arguments in grade school would descend into name calling... when there were no issues to present facts about... You might want to rethink your arguments and stick to facts and refrain from personal attacks...
Just a thought! You do believe you have facts to use don't you? _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Last edited by the48thronin on Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6283 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
the48thronin wrote:
Just a thought! You do believe you have facts to use don't you?
How about these: 800 million people around the globe are already malnourished and food prices are going through the roof, with no end in sight. Meanwhile, this cretin OF2 says it's fun. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 124 Location: In the cab of a truck! Anywhere USA!
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Zardoz wrote:
the48thronin wrote:
Just a thought! You do believe you have facts to use don't you?
How about these: 800 million people around the globe are already malnourished and food prices are going through the roof, with no end in sight. Meanwhile, this cretin OF2 says it's fun.
So what's new about third world people starving? They just started ? Care and all the charity drives in the post ww2 era were fantasy rip offs?
This is a peak oil discussion... Your facts that show the actual cause of 800 million starving people were caused by the reaching of peak oil are? He has his views , you have yours, and mine are not in agreement with either of you...
Stop the name calling and bashing and groupie building , stand tall for what you believe and prove your arguments with reason and facts.
The price of food is rising, transportation costs are, but in fact only peripherally, the actual transporter has seen no raise in fee structure to reflect the raise in "transportation costs" in this country.. ( in other countries they are striking demanding higher fees so they have not yet received them either).
This one fact that the freight rate to haul the product to the retail outlet has not gone up does not cover all "transportation costs" nor does it address creation costs ( farm diesel, fertilizer etc).
these are facts as I know them, I come here to find OTHER facts, and frankly don't care to see screaming back yard name calling shoot outs... Just a comment... _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
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